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Extension in the Works for Andris Biedrins?

Atma-160_tiny by Atma Brother ONE on in Rumors

After playing hardball with Head Coach Don Nelson, Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, Sarunas Jasikevicius , and to some extent Monta Ellis this past summer, the Warriors oddly look like they're on the verge of giving young big man Andris Biedrins a big money deal [SFGate]:

The last center standing from a year ago is now the only Warrior with a chance to cash in big this season. Golden State has until Oct. 31 to sign Biedrins to a contract extension or let him become a restricted free agent next summer.

Both Warriors vice president Chris Mullin and Bill Duffy, Biedrins' agent, anticipate talks to pick up as preseason moves along, and although neither is publicly offering any numbers, all signs point toward a deal getting done.

It's a real head scratcher why after a change for more fiscal responsibility the Warriors are reportedly about to open up their pocket books for a promising young big man who has some obvious flaws in his game that he'll most likely never overcome. When was the last time you saw a raw young big man develop a jump shot, a low or high post game, morph into a great passer who you can run your offense through, or a phenomenal shot blocker and rugged defender pretty much out of nowhere? I can think of only one legit player in Jermaine O'Neal, but he's an exception to the rule, not the norm.

capt.f00ae339d43e43989c1cbc978f6f4658.warriors_basketball_media_day_cabm111.jpg
Let's wait and see if Andris' photography and hoops skills mature before giving him a big payday.
(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

More thoughts about the possibly looming contract extension for the young big man after the jump...

Remember, Biedrins is usually is the 5th option on the floor anytime he out there. He can pretty much just catch and dunk. If he gets fouled going up for a shot and gets sent to the free throw line, well make sure the kids are at home and aren't watching. Creating offense for himself and others just isn't his cup of tea right now and probably will never be. No one's going to confuse him for Vlade Divac out there with respect to passing. If there's no BD-level passer on the squad, it's remains an open question how many buckets Biedrins would be able to score nightly.

Defensively Biedrins has become a good help defender and a solid force on the glass against most teams. However throw him against a frontline with some bulk and he struggles mightily. With his slender frame (admittedly, he'll fill out with age though) it's just asking and expecting too much of him to battle against the Carlos Boozers', Amare Stoudemire's, and Tim Duncan's of the league. Plus that Greg Oden fellow is someone to worry about for the next decade plus in the West.

Don't get me wrong Biedrins had a fantastic season last year (his 2k6-2k7 GSoM Report Card is on the way), but remember the Warriors went on that crazy late season run with him on the bench and the smallest starting unit in the land with Baron, Monta, JRich, Jax, and Al with Barnes as the 6th man. He arguably wasn't as integral to last season's success as you'd think.

If there's one thing this league has shown it's that young big men with that p-word potential don't come cheap. Take a look at some of these recent highly questionable big money deals for the 6'9 and over crowd:

  • Tyson Chandler: - $63 million over 6 years- I'd say he's the most similar player to Biedrins in the NBA and I don't think anyone would argue he's a superstar in the making.
  • Samuel Dalembert: $62 million over 6 years- Huh?
  • Zach Randolph: $84 million over 6 years- Shouldn't someone be able to pass the ball and play defense if you're going to give them sort of payday?
  • Nene: $60 million over 6 years- At least his name is cool.
  • Chris Kaman: $50 million over 5 years- Chillin' with The Flinstones is rewarding.
  • Rashard Lewis: $110 million over 6 years- Not that his game is anything like Biedrins' but I just had to sneak this in... Orlando Tragic!

Think any of those teams would like a playground "do-over"?

If the Warriors give Biedrins a lucrative extension right now, they're simply repeating the same mistake they made with those laughable contract extensions for Adonal Foyle, Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy from not too long ago. They're paying a player for what they think he might do or become, not what he can presently do or has proven he can do. Remember after this season he'll be a restricted free agent. Given the recent history of restricted free agents, it's very unlikely that some other team is going to pry him away next summer. The Warriors hold the cards here, not Biedrins and his agent.

Just like the Warriors did with Boom Dizzle, Mohawk Barnes, MP2, and Monta here's hoping they play those cards right and are patient. But don't get me wrong, I'm all for the good man to get paid some of Cohan's green. If the Warriors ink Biedrins to a big money deal good for him, but it's probably not good for the Warriors' cap in the long run. I wouldn't bet on him getting that much better than he already is, but what do I know? Just 2 years back I thought he wouldn't be in the league past his initial rookie deal because of what appeared to be a player with terribly low hoops IQ and very little body control. (Yes, he had that bad of a sophomore campaign.) The Dubs should just make sure that last year wasn't a fluke for Biedrins and that he's on the pace for stardom before they make a common mistake in the NBA. What's the rush?

And let's not forget the effects within the locker room a Biedrins extension might have. What kind of message does it send to the others who were hardballed this past offseason with their contract negotiations? If Biedrins gets a contract extension, why doesn't Monta and so on? It might appear like the Warriors are playing favorites and that might wreck an already fun and tightly knit locker room atmostphere. Why mess with a good thing?

Should the Warriors ink Andris Biedrins to an extension before October 31st? If so, what kind of deal do you think is reasonable for both sides?


Also check out ffgolden's diary Biedrins: To extend, or not to extend? for more discussion

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holy crap
rashard is getting that much?!  He better get them at least to the playoffs.  Anyway hes worth the extension, hes a solid rebounder, he can move, his hands aren't made of stone (like foyle), he can score pretty much when he wants to but he doesnt shoot that often.  Hes still young and he is going to get better.  Don't know exactly how much you'd want to give, for sure not as much as the guys you mentioned above

by djchuckdeez on Oct 3, 2007 11:49 AM PDT   0 recs

hm
when have the warriors ran their offense through their a PF or C?  I've been a Warriors fan for awhile now and I seriously can't remember how long its been since the warriors have had any 4 or 5 as they center piece of their team.

Right now I can't see the Warriors being able to afford to let Biedrins go just because of the way he has helped the team.  When he started off he was a nobody, literally.  Last season was a huge improvement and I don't see him getting any worse. I'd sooner start unloading people who are occupying positions that are easy to fill due to availability like the excessive amount of shooting guards and small forwards.  

by david240z on Oct 3, 2007 11:53 AM PDT   0 recs

omg atma
Wow, your view on Biedrins is baffling to me.  You equate giving Beans an extension to the contracts Murphy and Dunleavy signed!!!! Holy smokes, brother.  You've had a notoriously low outlook on Biendrins for as long as I can remember.  

The market is set for big men like Biedrins--you listed them above.  How could we get away w/ out paying him that money?  He is ALREADY better than every big man you listed, and he has the potential to really be something special.  Some would argue that in the Warriors system, he ALREADY IS something special. You even admitted that those bigs don't have nearly the upside that Beans has.  Kid is 21 years old and he nearly avg. a double-double last year in his FIRST YEAR starting.

And please do not knock him for a poor Sophomore campaign.  We had Mike Montgomery coaching who wouldn't play him or Monta much at all--and didn't have a system set up to his strengths.  Granted, he fouled plenty, but most young bigs do (really most all rookies do, due to the refs preferential treatment).  You'll see Beans getting the benefit of the doubt much more this year on foul calls, no doubt.

Saying Beans has a terrible b-ball IQ is a real head scratcher too.  He always seems to be in the right place at the right time. He always knows where he is on the floor in relation to the basket, and has run the pick and roll beautifully.

Let me ask you this: If we don't sign him for the current market value, who do you think we should go after?

I have the exact opposite opinion of you on this subject.  Beans should be locked up now.  His value is only going to go up barring a terrible injury.  There is no upside to waiting--only downside.

by myron on Oct 3, 2007 11:59 AM PDT   0 recs

100% agree
I think the issue of supply and demand needs to be considered as well.  

Atma you got it wrong here buddy, I but I appreciate your article and respect your opinion.


If War brings peace Dubz wit' it den!

by gsdubz on Oct 3, 2007 12:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

x 3
Count me 100% in the myron/GSDubz "non-head-scratching" camp.

by Sleepy Freud on Oct 3, 2007 2:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

x4
x4!!!

by djchuckdeez on Oct 3, 2007 4:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hello
divide by 4

=D

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i agree as well
why does Biedrins have to develop a jumpshot, dominant post moves and become a player we can run the offense through, just to get a deal.  nobody expects that from him.  he has a lot of skills.  he's not a franchise kevin garnett player, but he is very good and very young.  also very durable.

by Proof on Oct 3, 2007 2:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

so
what do we do when we don't have baron or jackson to give him those easy shots anymore?

thats right, a worthless overpayed center who can't create his own shot.  someone who relies on other strengths?  ok

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Overpayed? [sic]
Um, just curious.  Who was the last Warriors big man you'd consider better than AB?  Even right now, when he's still a kid?  The only guy I can think of is Webber, more than a decade ago, and after about four-five years (and several injuries) he was never quite the same.  (And he just turned down Biedrins bucks to play in Europe even tho he's now about 100 years old.)

Who's got AB's hands (see Adonal)?  Who plays as well above the basket?  Who moves so swiftly to the hoop?  Who defends/rebounds better?  Who plays his position on D better?  Who's anywhere near as fast?

This guy may never shoot the ten foot jumper, but my guess is (1) we'll start seeing a pretty fair hook shot this year, (2) the O will have opportunities to run the game thru him, because he can pass, and (3) if Wright is anything near what he looks to be, we'll see some lovely passes/tips between those two.  Finally, I agree he's got a good thing going with Jax, in particular.  That'll get better and better, since Jax (usually) plays very smart and he knows AB's got real talent.

We're fortunate  -- very fortunate -- to have this guy.  Let's enjoy him.

by johnl on Oct 4, 2007 8:43 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hello
i don't care how biedrins compares to the past warriors big men, thats not even a case.  what i compare him to is the rest of the league.  so ur saying just b/c he's been better than the past guys and we pay him alot of money?

(1) i never saw any coming of a hook shot (2) who says he can pass?  option zero?  lol

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 4, 2007 10:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

uh...
Watch some video of the EuroBasket from this past summer. He utilized a short little turnaround jumper that he hit a few times. We'll see how that translates in the NBA, but it's a good sign that he's started to develop additional offensive moves (that are in his range).

Also, in the training camp blog at warriors.com, Nellie said that he's planning to involve Biedrins in more offensive plays. Nellie ran a play for him 8 times last season, so he must have seen passing ability to trust him with more offensive plays this season.

by Caught Backcourt on Oct 4, 2007 10:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

no
when murphy avg'd his double-double, i bet you u wanted to give him a fat contract extension as well.  only time exposes weaknesses!  we gain in watching him another year so that we can see his weaknesses!  he scores on dunks right now.  teams could just foul him so that he misses a dunk next year and put him on the foul line.  and that is just one example of exposing his weaknesses.  another weakness would be too slim to guard the duncan and the boozers.  another weakness would be creating his own shot.  what do we do once baron is gone?  or the ppl who create the easy dunks for him?

for once, lets see the rookie contract expire, before handing out that unneeded extension.

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 5:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

btw
biedrins is not that better than tyson chandler just yet

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Please
Take an extra second and organize your thoughts, then you can avoid triple (or more) posting.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Oct 3, 2007 6:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hello
are you just being a dick?  cuz you really are.  wow, don't tell me u ever forgot to say something and replied to something twice.

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 4, 2007 10:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

How 'bout
Just trying a little thought for once -- and a lot less useless, ad hominem spray.  

We know you're loaded with personal venom, but it'd be nice to see a bit of analytical insight.  That's really where the fun in this is.  

by johnl on Oct 5, 2007 9:31 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

giving out big contracts
A player should always be paid according to the type of impact he can make in a game and the amount of players he can dominate in terms of performance.  For example, Tim Duncan can  single handedly post efffectively against any player in the league right now.  Obviously he deserves a huge contract and he does have one.

On the other hand, using Tyson Chandler as precedence for a large contract is just absurd.  Beans does have a better offensive game than Chandler, but can he really be any more than a 4th option at this point?  Not realy.

If you're paying him on potential, I highly agree with Atma Brother.  He has tons of flaws in his game that are very apparent.  No jump shot, no long distance jump shot, he probably has one good post move, no passing skills, and still very foul prone on defense.  At best, he is a Tyson Chandler or Samuel Dalembert with a lower defensive presence and a higher offensive game.  I'd say 7 mil/year is what he really deserves at most but in the NBA where big men seem to be the buyout destined fad, he will get offers of 10mil/year easy.

Let's hope the Warriors maintain their cap flexibility they made sacrifices for (Richardson) and worked so hard to achieve.  

by ballerjl on Oct 3, 2007 12:32 PM PDT   0 recs

Underselling
Biedrins is only 21, and it's fairly likely that he improves in all of the categories that you fault him in, except for long-distance shooting (which shouldn't be a factor anyway). He may develop a mid-range jumper, he'll most certainly continue to develop more post moves, his ability to stay out of foul trouble has improved each year, and I'd say he's already a fair passer--he's got good court awareness and good hands. And his defense will steadily improve along with his playing time and strength development.

by ffgolden on Oct 3, 2007 1:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i agree
i agree with atma.  why hand out a contract based on potential?  you want another mike dunleavy?

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

4th Option? So what.
Ranking someone according to what "option" they are on offense ignores more than half the game.  In the case of most centers, it also ignores the aspect of the game where they're most likely to make a difference.  

I realize that NBA GMs tend to pay players according to how much they score. with little or no mind to how efficient they are at this single skill.  I realize that all-star voters tend to pay more attention to this than anything else as well.  But the game is more complex than that.  Rebounding, positional defense and shooting efficiency have a huge impact on the final score.

Not having a jumpshot isn't much of a negative if he shoots 60% from the floor on the shots he takes.  A jump shooting center sounds great in theory, but they tend to grab fewer rebounds, tend to take more bad shots, tend to stray away from the basket where they can do more good.  In theory they 'draw defenders out' but in practice, this rarely happens to such a degree as to compensate for them missing more shots when they move out away from the basket.  

Comparing him to Dalembert and Chandler is probably pretty close to on the money, but presenting this as anything other than a positive isn't.  Neither light up the scoreboard, but both players help their team. There is a reason that Dalembert and Chandler are near the top in net plus-minus on their teams.  They impact the game without scoring.  Biedrins is similar in this regard and similarly has a positive net plus-minus.

by jae on Oct 3, 2007 2:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

so you
would rather have troy murphy who does have an outside shot then biedrins?

dude we don't want our center trying to shoot jump shots.  he is very affective in the paint and he plays within himself and is very affective.  he is smart, quick, has great hands, is very young, very coachable, great sense of where to be, great rebounder, blocks a bunch of shots and changes a lot of shots.  

by Proof on Oct 3, 2007 2:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

nope
I didn't say anything of those things.  My point is he isn't a versatile player and the things he does are above average but not top tier.  You guys are just used to rewarding big men with bloated contracts just like NBA GM's.

I agree you can impact the game in a number of categories, that's why I'm knocking him. Because he isn't multi-dimensional. He can't shoot a free throw, he can't shoot a jumper, he doesn't have various post moves.

I'm not saying he won't improve. I'm not saying I want Troy Murphy. God no.  But if your going to give a large chunk of the cap to one player you better be sure as hell he can do many things for you because you won't be able to buy other players.

by ballerjl on Oct 3, 2007 3:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

versatility
Being able to say you can do many things says nothing about how good you are at those things.

Biedrins IS versatile, just not in the ways you mentioned:

He is extremely effective in the pick and roll, he DEFENDS the pick and roll very well; he rebounds offensively and defensively; he moves without the ball even when not part of the play, he blocks shots and figures to get better at that; he's flashed some passing skills; he's flashed some offensive ability in certain matchups.

There are plenty of bigmen that can't claim half that resume, and this kid is 21.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Oct 3, 2007 3:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

lol
he's flashed some passing skills.

hahahahahaha!!!

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

how does
biedrins have better offensive game than chandler?  they virtually do the same thing.

oh yea, and chandler shoots at a higher fg%.  i bet you didn't know that

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No shame in being compared to Tyson Chandler
Chandler had a fantastic season last year, particularly in the second half. He was an absolute fantasy beast: a rebounding and blocking machine who rarely toook bad shots. He was the second most important player on a team that nearly made the playoffs. He's a total steal at $9M per.

Biedrins is a pretty comparable player, only with a bit more quickness, better hands, a nicer touch around the rim, and loads more upside. FWIW, Chandler shot slightly better than AB from the field last season (63%-59%), but AB leads him 60% to 54% over their careers.

As a side note, Warriorsrule, instead of carpet-bombing the board with a bunch of half-formed posts, why don't you settle down and try composing all your thoughts into a coherent paragraph or two? As it is, you're only making the "don't extend" position look more ridiculous.

by Sleepy Freud on Oct 3, 2007 6:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hello
i reply to messages that need replying to

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 4, 2007 10:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Biedrins is one guy I'd want to extend.
Baron still needs to prove his longevity and Monta is not in the same boat as AB.

It's just that true centers and big men are rare in the NBA today, so someone could easily give him 80 M as a restricted free agent.  Then the Warriors would be forced to match in order to keep him.  We didn't trade AB for KG, so six years around $60M doesn't sound unreasonable.

Andy Beans is a lot better than Foyle, Murphy or Dunleavy so he deserves his payday.  How can those paydays be compared to his?  That doesn't make too much sense.  Besides, AB came into his own last season and what he's only 21?  That's a hard combo to beat.

by callahan on Oct 3, 2007 1:16 PM PDT   0 recs

Biedrins
Biedrins' is already worth $10M at his current production level- that is, if he merely repeats his performance for the rest of his career, $10M is roughly the right price tag.

When you put the potential to reduce his foul rate and produce even more, then $10M becomes a good deal.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Oct 3, 2007 1:22 PM PDT   0 recs

werd
Seriously though, Atma. You're right about a lot of things. But you're wrong about Biedrins. You're wayyyy to hard on that kid. I have no idea why, but you are WAY too hard on him. He's young, uber talented, and fresh. His speed can give centers around the league fits, and he will improve on defense. There's literally no reason to say he will never overcome any of his flaws. At least your opinion doesnt sway, but you bash this guy a lot.

http://westcoastbiased.blogspot.com

by coma on Oct 3, 2007 2:09 PM PDT   0 recs

hmm
it's understandable to be cautious about what kind of money we pass out, but when you named the former warriors who got extensions that shouldn't have, Biedrins is already better than them. He is an integral part of the team. Agreed that it can't just be him down low, pairing him up with a legit power forward will be lethal. He's gonna bulk up more, and also get even more finesse. A big man who runs, defends, blocks shots, and can score? Now if you don't pay that man, then I don't know who you pay.
The Squad

by tadams1080 on Oct 3, 2007 2:50 PM PDT   0 recs

wow
thats exactly how mullin felt.  he thought to himself "so who am i going to pay?".  so after murphy completed his first double-double season, mullin gives him a fat contract...we all know what happened after that...do you want the same thing to happen?

saying biedrins is better than those guys right now is completely absurd.  murphy actually avg'ed a true double-double that year, unlike biedrins 9.5 double double...so arguably i can say that murphy is better.

u get the point???

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah biedrins usually is a 5th option
on the court.  BUT, he is an option.  he is still a scoring option in a lineup that is filled basically with people who are offensive specialists trying to outscore the other team and hustle.  Baron, Jrich, Jackson, Harrington.  Adonal foyle wasn't an option at all on offense thats why he didn't play.  Murhpy could only shoot and get a few rebounds that were right to him.  Andris is very effective offensively in the paint and he is a tremendous rebounder and a good defender on the rise.  His height, quickness and soft hands are almost as rare as monta's speed, hops and finishing ability.

by Proof on Oct 3, 2007 3:01 PM PDT   0 recs

he deserves the money
just for those soft hands alone.  a big man catching nice passes and then converting in the paint?!?! redick!!!!

by sadleavy on Oct 3, 2007 3:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmm...
I don't see how anyone could think that extending Biedrins wouldn't be fiscally responsible. In my eyes, Biedrins will play as well as he did last year, and most likely, he will play better. He improved in almost every category last year, he's young, athletic, etc. This whole 'play hardball with him' mentality is completely misguided. If we don't extend Biedrins now, he will 100% for sure be offered a deal more expensive than the $10 mil. or so per year the W's will offer him before the season starts. Not signing him would ultimately be a waste of money. Didn't we trade JRich pretty much for the sole purpose of being able to sign Andris and Monta?
Finally hoops hope in the City Of Dope?

by oaklandish on Oct 3, 2007 4:17 PM PDT   0 recs

To extend, or not to extend?
maybe it's just me, but something's not making sense:

the thread in ffgolden's diary seems more balanced and even leaning toward waiting, not extending AB yet, while here A-brudda1 is getting skewer'd for pointing to some arguments against extending him ...

my guess is Mullin will low-ball an offer and see if AB's people bite, trading security for potential. All these guys are one injury away from the end of the career - long term contracts look good (besides, you can always ask to renegotiate!)

by hardcore on Oct 3, 2007 4:32 PM PDT   0 recs

Word
I read this entry first, and had a pretty strong reaction to it, and realize my response may have sounded a little harsh. No disrespect to Atma. You the man Atma!
Finally hoops hope in the City Of Dope?

by oaklandish on Oct 3, 2007 4:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

and like you guys mentioned already
NBA GMs jump on the gun as soon as a big man gets available. Hardball won't work on Biedrins because unlike Barnes and/or Pietrus, more teams would be willing to gamble on him. Unless his agent sets the bar really high, it's important to get a deal done now.

I don't see what's the big fuzz about him being the 5th option. Last time I check, we're not at all short in scoring. He's the only one on the floor who actually has an entirely different role which I think only adds to his value.

by lightz0ut on Oct 3, 2007 4:36 PM PDT   0 recs

Honestly
I have no clue what the "don't extend" camp is actually arguing for.

Atma, by bringing up Dunmurphy and Foyle, you seem to imply that the smart thing to do would be to let AB walk for nothing. Is that really what you want? And if all you want is one more year to "wait and see," why? On the off-chance that despite all AB's signs of progress (in the Eurochampionship, e.g.) he'll regress to the point where we can get him for slightly cheaper than $10M per? And what's "slightly cheaper?" $8M? Are you so attached to the remote chance that we might save a couple mil a year that you're willing to risk (1) his having a breakout year and raising his pricetag to $14-15M; or (2) letting another team swoop in and grab him?

As for the argument that other teams wouldn't want him, or that he only fits in Nellieball: good luck with that. If Marc Spears from the Boston Globe sees a potential star in the making, I think it's pretty safe to say more than a handful of NBA GMs do too.

Unless we're willing to let AB walk, we have to pay him, at market value. Thankfully, it seems clear Mulson are keenly aware of this. The deal gets done in the next couple of weeks. The cheapskates can all weep for Chris Cohan's wallet.

by Sleepy Freud on Oct 3, 2007 4:58 PM PDT   0 recs

minor point
The most Biedrins can make is $13M (starting). It might average out to around 14-15 if you get to 5-6 years.

The point stands. Who would want to see Biedrins walk for free? That doesn't make any sense. The question then becomes extend now or later, and there's a greater risk of the price going up than down (all else, like health, being equal).

So I'd have to say Mullin should get it done for 5years $50M or thereabouts (or 6/60, whatever) now and get to planning for next offseason's finances.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Oct 3, 2007 5:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

whoever
said that he's walking for free??  we can match any offer he gets!

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 5:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

you can also say that
the cheapskates are the ones who think biedrins is gonna get a 13-14 mil contract instead of a 10 mil contract.  so either way, if we're saving a couple million, whats the difference???  i would much rather see biedrins work hard for that 13-14 mil to establish that is his market value.  we can still match it!!

if not, we extend him now.  he gets lazy.  his weaknesses will be exposed (like how murphy's was), and we'll all be regretting we overpayed him at 10 mil per

!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i got your back atma
me and atma vs sleepy and oz
hahaha

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 5:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

honestly
I have no clue what the "extend" camp is actually arguing for.

we lose nothing if we wait another year.  if a team offers him 13 mil, then we can match it!

i rather see biedrins establish himself as a 13 mil player this year and hand him the money.

because i am not even sure if he's a 10 mil player yet!

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

WOW
This is the first time I COMPLETELY DIASAGREE with what you wrote Atma. I was bamboozled (yes i just wrote bamboozled) by what you wrote and even thought maybe I had a distorted view on Andris since what you guys write is almost always accurate and knowledgable. But then I saw what others wrote and I couldnt agree more with those first few comments. :(

by twelve years on Oct 3, 2007 5:23 PM PDT   0 recs

BEAUTIFUL!!!
BEAUTIFUL, JUST BEAUTIFUL, ATMA BROTHER ONE.  well said.  you said everything perfectly.

i can't see biedrins improving his ft%, adding any offensive moves to his repertoire (low post moves besides the putbacks and dunks), or averaging more than 2 blocks a game.

i loved how you said "we'd be repeating the same mistake of foyle, murphy, and dunleavy".  thats a terffic point.  i remember when murphy completed his first double-double season and everyone was already all over his nuts.  and look at all the "slow-lateral movement" criticisms he gets today.

i also loved how you said "what's the rush???".  we can match any offer that teams make, and i doubt anyone would try to pry him away.

and just b/c Chandler, Dalembert, Randolph, Nene, and Kaman were signed to stupid contracts doesn't mean that we have to make the same stupid mistake.   we are past that!  no more of that stupid fisher/foyle/murphy/dunleavy contract signing! mullin will lose all credibility from what he has established this offseason if he gives in and gives biedrins a contract right now.  bottom line...we have nothing to lose!  i for one, would like to see another full season of biedrins!

so...SHUT THE HELL UP O.Z. (who always thinks he's right), and all the other guys who want to resign him right now...sorry for the bluntness

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 5:47 PM PDT   0 recs

whoa
no need to tell anyone to "shut the hell up" for posting their opinion. that's not cool.

by Fantasy Junkie on Oct 3, 2007 6:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

haha yea
sorry about that =D

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

ahem
cough

by jrizzle on Oct 3, 2007 6:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought
the whole "salary cap flexibility" thing was done FOR Biedrins?
Anyway it's difficult to quantify "potential", most GMs in the NBA gamble on big men and not every single one of them turned out to be the next Shaq, but the players you mentioned above don't suck either (unlike the former center we had).  Yes, there are a lot of flaws in his game, but unlike SFs or SGs, good centers are hard to come by.  Idealy, players' salary depend on their production, but not for centers because every other GM in the NBA would jump at the chance of being able to sign a big man for his team.  I believe he's going to be extended no matter what, and get Nene- and Chandler-type money.

by semarubaka on Oct 3, 2007 5:54 PM PDT   0 recs

hey "thewarriorsrule"
was that all sarcasm or are you just that ignorant?

by twelve years on Oct 3, 2007 6:03 PM PDT   0 recs

how do we
know that you're not ignorant.  who cares its a message board to voice your opinions.

would it make u feel better if atma and fantasy delete my blunt posts?

don't take everything so offensively.  its just the internet

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Problem
This is not "a message board" or "just the internet", we are a community who show respect for one another. Show people respect. Just because it's anonymous and you can't see people face to face, doesn't mean you can be rude. This site is not your outlet for being rude, there are other venues for that. Please show people respect regardless of whether or not you agree with their opinion. It's just a simple matter of having manners and class. If you don't feel you can be respectful of other people there are plenty of other message boards to go to. We appreciate you coming to our site, but we request that everyone who visits is respectful of everyone else here.

by Fantasy Junkie on Oct 3, 2007 10:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hello
you're right again fantasy junkie.  i apologize.  i love you man

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 4, 2007 10:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Why now?
Why can't we wait for a year? It's been shown in the past few years that restricted free agents just do not get offers. Why will this change for Andris? Because he's a big man? Teams would have to grossly overpay him to sign his services away from the Warriors if he was a restricted free agent and I just don't see that happening.

After one breakout year, we're ready to give him a big extension? Erick Dampier had a breakout year (potential All-Star) and we all know how that turned out. "But he's not Dampier!" Is that hoping or a statement? If I remember correctly, people were pretty excited about Damp after that year and that he was finally realizing his potential. All I'm saying is, just be wary about guys who have one big year and throwing money at him.

I'm no salary expert, but let me try to break it down...

If Beans improves again, what are his rebounds going to be? Let's say a 20% increase to 12rpg making him a top 4 rebounder. Possible? Yes, but that still puts him just below what Tyson Chandler (a similar player) did last year. Now let's say he increases his scoring by 20% as well, that puts him at 12ppg which would be top 4 in scoring for centers. Then he also improves his defense and plays more than 30 minutes. Defensively with Chandler, I'll call it a wash. So that puts his numbers slightly higher than Chandler because of the points and he's a top 4 center. I'd say that's the best case scenario. Agreed?

So Chandler is making 6/63. Let's say Beans commands slightly higher because of the better ppg numbers, maybe 2 mil/year so 6/75. Is that fair or would he get more?

Is the 20% increase in production likely? It's debateable, but I don't think so. So now let's say his market value would be 12.5 mil per year in the best case scenario or 25% higher than what they are reportedly going to give him. Teams would have to probably pay around $14+ mil per year to steal him away as a restricted free agent. I don't see it happening.

For me, that's worth the wait. If he has another breakout year and improves by that much, I will be surprised and he will have proven he deserves the money. But 1 good year does not make me want to lock him up like the Clips did Kaman. If the Clips had waited a year on Kaman, you think he'd have commanded 5/50? I don't think so. All in all, I say just be patient. Let him show he can play this well consistently and if he improves then I have no problem paying him. I'd rather spend extra money on more of a sure thing than be burdened with another big contract.

by Fantasy Junkie on Oct 3, 2007 6:08 PM PDT   0 recs

i like
how you and atma think.  theres a reason why/how you guys created this message board!! =D

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

evolving strategies.
I think the strategy on how to deal with restricted free agents is evolving.  

A few years ago, there wa a rash of early extensions. The Warriors weren't the only team that seemed to do that.  There just weren't that many players who were allowed to become 5th year restricted free agents.  

A couple years ago it seemed that teams started to wait it out a bit more and offered shorter deals to their 5th year players, more or less daring other teams to try to give offers that would be matched.  That's what happened with Wilcox.  Teams realized they could put forward a low ball offer and since few teams could really offer much more than an MLE to most players, players might consider anything moderately above that, even if they thoght they'd get much more on a true open market.

This year, it's gone ever further where players that the team really wants to retain and would pay quite a bit for are being left holding a one year offer sheet in hand.  There's been few  real serious attempts to try to lure away the restricted free agents and as such, guys like Pietrus and Varejao have been left with a take it or leave it one year deal at far below what they expected.   It may be that the low ball offers were too low and the players would rather suck it up for one more year and become unrestricted free agents.  It may be that even the Wilcox-type deals just didn't appear.  Hard to tell, but it does seem like there's at least a trend towards a bit more financial sanity.

I don't know what next year will bring, but trying to figure out what the free agent/restricted free agent strategy will be based on what has happened ignores that strategies seem to shift over time.  Relying on what has happened in even the previous year hasn't been the best predictor of how teams or players will behave.

by jae on Oct 3, 2007 11:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

also
that thing you wrote at the end kind of reminded me of Ricky Bobby in Talladega Nights when he said
With all due respect, Mr. Dennit, I had no idea you'd gotten experimental surgery to have your balls removed.
you cant just tell everyone to "SHUT THE HELL UP" and say sorry in the next sentence so shut the hell up. sorry

by twelve years on Oct 3, 2007 6:09 PM PDT   0 recs

awww
poor baby

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 3, 2007 6:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Warning
You have been warned once in this diary already, this is your second.

You have been the subject of complaints before, and your behavior, despite halfhearted apologies on your part, is not appropriate.

This is not OptionZero abusing his power on a whim- the community members and writers, it's safe to say, all agree on this one.

Change your attitude, be productive, or at least, respectful.

Do us the barest of favors and avoid TRIPLE posting.

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Oct 3, 2007 6:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hello
you know what option zero, KISS MY ASS.  i'm getting sick of your "warnings".  just because we don't see eye-to-eye does that mean you have to be a total jerk.

i remember how i said powell was a better rebounder than croshere, and you said "you are wrong, just utterly wrong" with no proof of evidence whatsoever.  i apologized, and you just continued to rub it in my face.

you know what, GO AHEAD AND DELETE MY ACCOUNT.  i dare you.  if it makes you feel better, just because i'm not some of the other guys who kiss your ass, then do it.

you will always have someone who will disagree with you...deal with it.  nobody has to agree to everything you say.

bottom line is, we are all warrior fans, and we are all on the same team.  i admit i blow up sometimes, but thats how i am.  like jrizzle said, it is just for entertainment purposes.  go smoke a blunt or have a beer, relax, and have fun...

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 4, 2007 10:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Heh
No, you prefer to kiss Fantasy's and Atma's ass. But props for knowing who to suck up to.

If "we're all on the same team," as you say, why do you continue to spam the board with juvenile posts aimed at dividing it? "Atma and Fantasy are my friends, yayyy!" "OZ is my enemy, boooo!" You've totally lost track of the original argument, and are just trying to win the pissing match you started. Meanwhile, the quality of discourse on the board goes into the toilet.

Bottom line: no one on this board appreciates your comments -- not Fantasy, not Atma, not anyone. The one guy who said you were "funny," meant "funny-ridiculous," not "funny clever."

Calm down, quit the trolling, and try to contribute something positive to the site.

by Sleepy Freud on Oct 4, 2007 11:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hello
KISS MY ASS, sleepy freud.  like option zero, you held a vendetta against me over a previous petty argument.

if you think i'm just trying to disagree with people instead of thoughts, then that is just sad, because that is exactly what ur trying to do with me right now.  take a look in the mirror, and look at your own damn posts.  it looks like ur trying to attack me, and not the post.

focus on the thoughts, not the author.

and don't try to speak for atma, fantasy, or whoever.  they speak for themsevles.

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 5, 2007 5:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Aww, you're adorable
In all honesty, I didn't have the slightest clue who you were before you crapped all over this thread.

I'd say you're just one of the many half-wits that troll this site, but that would be an insult to half-wits.

So I'll just say ... I love you, too, man! :-)

by Sleepy Freud on Oct 5, 2007 6:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

apology accepted
now thats the attitude!  =)

don't worry sleep freud, i will keep your comments in mind, and will definitely try to contribute something positive to this board.  keep an eye out =)

by thewarriorsrule on Oct 8, 2007 12:04 AM PDT