Q&A: Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress on Brandan Wright

by Atma Brother ONE on Oct 8, 2007 8:25 AM PDT in Interviews

One of the most intriguing and exciting aspects of the upcoming Warriors season is seeing what surprises the rookies Brandan Wright, Marco Belinelli, and Stephane Lasme have in store for us. It's really not that big of a stretch to say that the Warriors' playoff chances heavily depend on this trio's collective production.

We've all seen the many highlight clips, but the GSoM crew wanted to find out more- much more about these three rooks. So we decided to talk to the man of draft scouting himself- Jonathan Givony the President of DraftExpress, the premier web destination for year-round NBA draft coverage and scouting.

Jonathan and Aran Smith from NBADraft.net were recently featured in the Sports Illustrated piece Catching the Draft: How two gurus have found niche with NBA Draft sites that's definitely worth a good read. It's really amazing how much influence their two sites have:

Ten thousand words seems like overkill, but in reality the mock drafts and scouting reports compiled by Givony's crew and his top independent competitor, NBADraft.net's Aran Smith, will be devoured by a much wider audience than anyone's in the mainstream media -- except perhaps ESPN's Chad Ford, a draft expert who began his career outside the mainstream with Sportstalk.com, a site acquired by ESPN.com in 2001.

Many of the same major newspapers who covered the predraft camp will likely, over the course of the next two weeks, reference Givony and Smith's projections in print. By serving up year-round mocks of the next two NBA Drafts -- and thus serving as a launching point for talk of who's over or underrated -- it's not a stretch to say DraftExpress and NBADraft.net set the terms for much of the public discourse on the draft. It's also evident their readership extends beyond journalists and armchair draft enthusiasts.

Both DraftExpress and NBADraft.net are visited, at the very least for reference material, by a sizable number of NBA decision-makers. Not the old school GMs, necessarily, but definitely by their tech-savvy underlings and scouts. Said one Eastern Conference evaluator, "It's not like we're on the clock on draft night, scrambling, and then saying, 'Who does NBADraft.net say we should take?' That would be ridiculous. That would mean we aren't doing our jobs. But do I look at their mocks? For sure."

Agents concerned with their clients' draft stock tend to closely monitor the two sites' ratings, and representatives or trainers often invite Givony or Smith to private workouts in hopes of generating additional buzz. The prospects themselves read DraftExpress and NBADraft.net too; Givony said agent Justin Zanik recently informed him one of his clients, French forward Ali Traore, was literally crying because he had been dropped out of DraftExpress' second round.

I want to add that I have the utmost respect for Jonathan. He has the entrepreneurial spirit and passion that's driving Web 2.0. Jonathan understands that hoops junkies like us aren't just content with a short blurb about NBA prospects right before draft time in late June. We want the type of excellent round the clock coverage that his spot provides with their sharp hoops insights mixed in.

Here's our recent exchange with Jonathan about rookie power forward Brandan Wright of UNC with more of his research and thoughts on Marco Belinelli, Stephane Lasme, and the much hyped 2007 NBA Draft class to follow. Trust me, you'll love this!

What does Jonathan think about the JRich trade and rookie big man Brandan Wright?
Did the Warriors Do the Wright Thing in the trade with the Bobcats?
(Photo: Joe Murphy/NBAE/Getty)

Make the jump to find out!

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Golden State of Mind: Warriors Nation was stunned when the team pulled the trigger on a deal that sent Jason Richardson to the Charlotte Bobcats for talented UNC power forward Brandan Wright and a $10 million trade exception. It's been widely rumored that Wright was just a means to an end (Kevin Garnett or even Yi Jianlian) especially since the Warriors reportedly never even brought him in for a predraft workout. How much truth is there in these rumors? Did the Warriors really not bring him in for a workout? If they didn't, do you think they scouted him properly to justify pulling off a blockbuster deal of this sort that didn't lead to KG? Was this a good deal for the Warriors and Bobcats?

Jonathan Givony (DraftExpress): The fact that the Warriors never brought him in for a workout is true. But it's actually not surprising in the least bit, since guys who are projected as top-10 picks almost never work out for teams that are outside of their range, unless they are heavily rumored to be involved in trades to move up--which the Warriors really weren't. Even though the Warriors didn't work him out, I am sure they still scouted him during the season...it's not like UNC was a tough team to catch or anything. A guy like him, though, I personally would have liked to bring in just to interview and conduct some personality assessments (for example, teams such as the Suns do with companies like the BBIQ), just to make sure you know what's going on underneath the hood there before you take such a big step backwards to acquire him like the Warriors did.

Skill-wise, there really aren't that many question marks about Wright. He has all-star potential for sure. The question about him is mentally, whether he has the heart and especially the drive to reach his potential. Not quite as bad, but similar to the question marks people had about Patrick O'Bryant.

About whether or not this was a good deal for the Warriors...I personally don't. There's a lot to be said for financial flexibility, and the luxury tax, and all that jazz, but from a talent standpoint, the Warriors took a huge step backwards, which makes very little sense to me considering last year's success, and Baron Davis' age, etc. I think the Warriors are going to rue the day they passed up on Joakim Noah for Brandan Wright too.

That's just my opinion, though. We will find out soon enough!

Golden State of Mind: With the Warriors' frenetic up and down style of play, it seems that the best fit for the team would be an athletic big man long enough to block shots and rebound, while skilled enough to create scoring opportunities with/without the ball in his hands. Outside of Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, was Brandan Wright the best fit for the Warriors or would Al Horford, Yi Jianlian, or Joakim Noah have been better?

Jonathan Givony (DraftExpress): There is no question in my mind that Noah was the best fit. None at all. Horford would have been great too, but he obviously was off the board at #3 already. I spoke to someone in the Bulls front office this week (just to catch up, not for an article), and he was effusive in his praise of Noah, saying how far ahead he is of other rookies they've had in the past. Not sure if that was a jab at Tyrus Thomas or not, but that's a pretty big compliment considering the type of rookies they've had in the past few years (Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Nocioni come to mind).

Golden State of Mind: Considering some of the rumors surrounding Wright and his mysterious injury this summer, do you think the Warriors' acquisition of Wright in the draft still functions as a long term investment in flexibility -- cap or otherwise? Is it too soon to say that Mullin/Nellie have already seen the ceiling with last season's team and are preparing for any potential crises in the future (coaching changes even?) by stock piling as much talent as possible? How highly regarded is Wright as a big man prospect in this league?

Jonathan Givony (DraftExpress): Trading away your second best player for a project definitely is a long-term investment--for better or for worse. I really think this was a move made for financial purposes. Before the trade, Golden State was going to be over the luxury tax, and now, they aren't. It's a sad reality that a lot of NBA teams are going through right now. Look at Phoenix for example. There are others too--Seattle, Washington, New Jersey--teams with GMs that have been handcuffed by their luxury tax-fearing owners.

How highly regarded is Wright as a big man prospect? I think he is highly regarded, but get back to me after we begin to see how he makes the transition to the NBA and we'll have a much better idea.

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POB Part II- say it ain't so! Let's hope playing in front of the Roaracle Arena every night ignites a fire under Wright. It looks like there's an All Star deep down inside waiting to be untapped by Nellie.

Joakim Noah a great fit for the Dubs? Hmmm... I honestly wasn't sold on him being anything more than an average pro at the time of the 2k7 NBA Draft, but with Jonathan's rave reviews for Noah you can sure bet I'll be tracking him very closely this season.

Also check out Brandan Wright's DraftExpress Profile

Q&A: Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress on Marco Belinelli

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Comments

Bulls (heart) Noah

So the Bulls told Givony that they absolutely love their first round draft pick so far in training camp? I'm shocked. I thought for sure they'd claim that they made a huge mistake in drafting Noah and were really hoping they could have Wright instead. Not that I doubt Givony's take on Noah, but that wasn't much of a source to back up his point.

by yohan on Oct 8, 2007 9:24 AM PDT 0 recs

Power of the written word

So, if the draft order is heavily influenced by the these websites, and Jonathan is clearly not enamoured with Wright, it makes sense that his stock dropped so far. The mental game has to be strong in your top five, or you can have Olowokandi. Wright is not expected to bring nearly the same impact of Durant and Horford, but as long as he show some of this new POB-fire, even if it is Front Office PR to up his trade value, when called upon this season, I'd be happy. He needs to "run on" instincts and he can make a difference. He's got plenty of teammates to look up to for guidance as well.

There seems to be plenty of competition for JR's old spot and while it will be difficult to replace his 4th quarter dominance and nearly-unstoppable alley oop finishes, its just harder to replace a bona fide 4 that can fly...

by eshock on Oct 8, 2007 9:26 AM PDT 0 recs

questions? By whom?

Givony may have put together a nice site, and I don't question that he's got quite a bit of dedication to it, but the nebulous 'question about mentality' still strikes me as the same reproduction of a rumor. Repeat it often enough and it becomes fact. Since I never heard these questions during the season, since the folks I know who follow UNC closely didn't seem to perceive it as a problem, I'm curious who had the questions, why they had the questions and where Givony heard this. The nebulous 'questions' without any attributes, without anything supporting this strikes me as nothing but a product of rumormill.

I honestly think that the big ears and dopey expression that is Wright's face is the biggest contributor to this perception of his personality. If he had an Omar Little scar across his face, my guess is that he'd be regarded as a beast.

by jae on Oct 8, 2007 9:36 AM PDT 0 recs

The wisdom of JAE

JAE, maybe I pay more attention to your posts than others do (obviously, you're one of the best things about this site), but I think this may be the 4th or 5th time I've read this post. Not complaining, since it's totally apt, and obviously bears repeating, but I wish there were an easily accessible source for your most oft-repeated truisms:

On Wright: His so-called attitude problems have no verifiable source other than internet rumor-mongering.
On rebounding: It's a hugely underrated facet of the game, and correlates closely to wins.
On Nellie's quotes: Don't take them at face value.
On the CBA: your proposed deal will not work.

Is that about right? :-) Seriously, I think all of these should just go in the permanent GSoM masthead, right under "Unstoppable, Baby..."

On Noah: to repeat something I've said at least 2-3 times here: Givony is on record saying Noah is 3rd best prospect in this draft. His pimping Noah now probably reflects the desire to see his prediction come true more than any actual new insight.

by Sleepy Freud on Oct 8, 2007 10:07 AM PDT up 0 recs

PS

Great interview, Atma. Keep 'em coming!

by Sleepy Freud on Oct 8, 2007 10:21 AM PDT up 0 recs

Thanks man

I gotta give my teammates Fantasy Junkie and DJ Fuzzylogic some major props for coming up with some interesting questions for Jonathan as well.

Trust me we got some surprises coming up... and you know we don't disappoint!

by Atma Brother ONE on Oct 8, 2007 11:52 AM PDT up 0 recs

Sleepy on JAE

That is hilarious. Maybe (read definitely) I spend too much time here but, as I read an article or comment I can almost always predict when I'm going to see JAE dropping one of his tenants of basketball truth. He is truly one of the great things about this site, one of the few guys who have really educated me about the game since I've been frequenting this place.

BTW you forgot:
Late developing big men are a myth created by GMs trying to keep their job. You can almost always identify talented big men early with the right statistical analysis as most young bigs are limited by foul rate and thus MPG, but still show efficient production and a good rebound rate when given a chance to play. Example: AB as a rookie > POB as a rookie.

Does that sound about right? That was my best JAE impersonation. lol.

by olympicmike on Oct 8, 2007 12:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

sources

# On Wright: His so-called attitude problems have no verifiable source other than internet rumor-mongering.

I'd add that anyone can verify (or possibly reject this claim--it's based on my own research which could well be flawed). If you try to do a web search on "Brandan Wright" and some combination of terms like 'attitude' or 'passion' or 'intensity' or 'mental' or some similar term, I suspect you'll find that the 'questions' don't show up until around April, and then they explode. Now some of this may be a product of his entering the draft then, but there are some comments about his dedication to the game prior to then and those seem to be far more positive than negative. Again, this doesn't decide it one way or another, but it's just interesting detective work that makes me question the wisdom of many of these anonymous sources.

# On rebounding: It's a hugely underrated facet of the game, and correlates closely to wins.

If people are interested on a source on this, I recommend the book "The Wages of Wins." Many may not agree with all their conclusions, and I'll admit that I'm probably overly influenced by it and do correspond with one of the authors reasonably regularly, but they do support and document their conclusions, including the strong, strong correlation between rebounds and wins. While correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation, I think this is one of those cases where it's pretty easy to explain why a better rebounding team has a better shot of winning and why failing to rebound means you have to do everything else that much better.

Dean Oliver doesn't rate rebounding quite as high, but still considers it one of the critical 'four factors' that predict winning. (see: "http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html") He considers it less important overall than shooting percentage or turnover margin, but more important than FT shooting which includes not just percentage, but also how often a team gets to the line and weights the second as far more important than the former. As far as our Warriors go, this seems to be about right as though they were a terrible rebounding team, they could often win the turnover war and had a rather high effective FG%.

On Noah: I'm not sure what to expect, but my gut reaction is that he'll be a productive NBA player, though he may not get 'star' recognition. He wasn't a dominant scorer and scoring a whole lot of points is what people usually look at when evaluating if someone is a star. He did a few things in college really really well though. He had a great FG% and drew a bunch of fouls. His rebound total was very good too, especially considering that he shared the post with some other very, very good rebounders. I could very easily see him being a quiet, productive player who helped his team win while scoring <10ppg and consequently many would still not recognize him as being a good player. Pros of drafting him would also have been getting to see his mom in the stands. Cons would be that stupid #@!ing haircut and the real possibility of hearing his dad's 'music' at games.

by jae on Oct 8, 2007 11:13 AM PDT up 0 recs

Omar Little scar

Nice. Can't wait for the last season, though it just won't be the same without Bodie.

by ffgolden on Oct 8, 2007 10:59 AM PDT up 0 recs

Little More on Noah - from Chicago

Sam Smith at ChicagoSports.com wrote an article entitled: "Float this: Noah a starter" - Superior work ethic may push him past Thomas.

One would assume Tyrus Thomas would emerge, though I'm looking for rookie Joakim Noah in that spot, even though he might make Tyson Chandler's jump shot look good.

Noah can't afford to take a minute off, so he doesn't. Yes, you might wince watching him and Ben Wallace playing inside. Combined, they might not shoot 50 percent on free throws or score against one another playing one-on-one for an hour. But several coaches have told me they see Noah's hustle and relentless play annoying the heck out of players like Rasheed Wallace, Jermaine O'Neal and Randolph, who don't like a 6-11 gnat buzzing around them all game and running out on offense at every opportunity.

by Fantasy Junkie on Oct 8, 2007 12:11 PM PDT 0 recs

Great Job

This was a really good read. Always enjoy the interviews! Thanks guys.

by olympicmike on Oct 8, 2007 12:45 PM PDT 0 recs

Have to say

Interviews are fantastic. I love reading information from professionals, instead of just diaries. Also, never trust anything Sam Smith says. He's almost as bad as Peter Vescey. Anyone remember the rumor Vescey started like 3-4 years ago on television on how the warriors are gonna get KG. I almost crapped myself with the thought.