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Ellis or Biedrins who do we keep!

 Ellis went off tonight showing he could be 6th man of the year(ginobli). Anyways Biedrins against some centers looks like a superstar but against athletic centers looks like a human pole. Since centers are the hardest thing to find next to a pot of gold(ginobli). Two weeks ago I would of taken biedrins in a heartbeat but some games he does not show up. The question of the century is do we take the missispi bullet w/ that one british kid, or do we take a risk and put some cash towards THE LITHUANIAN(copyright). It is a hard disision now. OH Mully why did you sign Foyle to 8 mil a year. Now we must pay the price!

GOD SPEED!

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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or?
There's no question we're keeping Biedrins.

We may or may not keep Ellis.

We could keep both if we wanted to and Ellis doesn't pulla Varejao.

The only question is whether Ellis is worth what he'll ask for...and there's at least two existing diaries on the topic already.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 26, 2007 11:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Why do you keep saying that?
How do you know what he's going to ask for?
This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 27, 2007 1:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

btw
BlueNgoldBlood, are you a marine?  I just noticed your signature quote.
I pray i never have to use a gun again.

by ssmokinjoe on Nov 27, 2007 3:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He never said he knew what Ellis was going to ask
for... he simply said if the Warriors would consider what Ellis thinks he's worth to the team.  There's a big difference... its basic bartering
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

by mightymadskillz on Nov 27, 2007 12:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Do we have to pick?
I thought the point of trading J-rich was so we can resign both

by sup3rk1ng on Nov 26, 2007 11:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't appear as though that's likely.
Not if we want to resign Baron.

I should bad mouth the warriors more, every time i do they frikken' win.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 12:04 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Lithuanian?
Are you proposing we re-sign Sarunas?

Seriously though, I say we re-sign the Latvian and if Monta continues to progress as a PG I would toss some cash at him too.

.

by olympicmike on Nov 27, 2007 12:05 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

oh
My bad

by biedrinsismyhero on Nov 27, 2007 2:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Lol
I find it ironic and funny that your name is Biedrinsismyhero, yet you called him The Lithuanian. And I believe started the whole, "calling him Latvia" thing. :P

by WarriorForLife on Nov 27, 2007 3:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

updated
To preempt any futher payroll questions, an updated snapshot of where we stand:

Biedrins deal I project to come out just above $10M/year

Ellis comes out just under $8M/year

Azubuike is something around what DeShawn Stevenson got.

POB walks, Mbenga stays for cheap.

Assume Baron stays true to his word and doesn't opt out.

If the Lux tax is around $67-68M then Barnes might get squeezed out if he wants the MLE of $5.5M-$6M.

Dealing Ellis allows the Warriors to spend the full MLE and still have plenty of flexibility.

One way to use that flexibility would be to use the TPE before it expires on a multi year deal- this would greatly expand its usefulness.

If you want to keep Ellis, the TPE must be used on an expiring this year or not at all (i.e. let the TPE vaporize).

Alternatively, you could use Ellis' space in a sign and trade and take back that amount of salary. I have no idea what a return package could be since his value could flucuate from now to the trade deadline to free agency.

So hopefully now people understand roughly where we are at.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 12:06 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

nice work
quick question, are the numbers for Buike on that chart your projections, or did he sign some extension I didn't know about?

by Bill Curley 0wns j00 on Nov 27, 2007 12:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

projection
Rough projection.

I'd also like to point out it may not always pay off to backload every contract like I did, but thats how you get the most space next year.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 12:25 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not the way
The way you backloaded isn't permitted by the present CBA.  Raises are limited to 10.5% of the initial year. They are not compounded.

by jae on Nov 27, 2007 8:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I know this board loves
Buke but are you that sure that Nelson and Mullin would prefer to keep him over Barnes?

I'm not

Where he is at now doesn't lead me to believe that after one year they will have to guarantee him 15 million

by Zig on Nov 27, 2007 12:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

O'Bryant walks?
Are you kidding me?

I thought the kid had some serious gifts the first time I saw him on a court, but then I thought he was trash after realizing that he was just without a heart.

It was never a question of talent or skill.

Now he seems determined enough to be a competitor in this league. Mbenga doesn't SNIFF the offensive potential O'Bryant has, and Patrick is a good rebounder and an excellent shot blocker. (I'm not saying don't keep Mbenga btw)

At this point in his career, none of us know how good O'Bryant can be, especially after writing him off as a bust. Now he looks as if he is a legitamite lottery pick, and a valuable project for the franchise to develop. Mbenga's 27 years old, and is an excellent defender. He's physical and he can move...just what the doctor ordered. But that isn't a green light for a team to let a lottery pick 21 yr old big man like O'Bryant walk.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 27, 2007 1:22 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

lol
Mbenga doesn't SNIFF the offensive potential O'Bryant has

lol u sure?

I don't think anyone is suggesting that Mbenga has POB's potential. But it's a fact that we won't be able to resign everybody. I actually probably wouldn't mind resigning POB because I'm guessing that he'll outperform his cost in upcoming years, but not if it means we can't resign AB or Monta obviously.

It's almost like the Warriors have 6 guys out there... they always have a guy open! - Jon Barry commentating game 3 last year

by gsw4life on Nov 27, 2007 3:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn't help
when you got two bricks for hands. Patrick has an unguardable hook that he has consistently been acurate with. I havn't seen 3 other centers with the same range he's got on it. O'Bryant is also a great passer for a big man, with a pair of great hands.

I wasn't joking when I said that.

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 27, 2007 3:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

he's right
Mbenga looks only slightly better or about the same as adonal offensively and isn't very young.  POB is still very young and is coordinated and has some moves.  he has a soft touch and good hands.  POTENTIAL!

by Proof on Nov 27, 2007 3:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Raises are too big.
Some of those numbers don't work, especially the back ends, which are important if you're trying to get a contract with an average dollar that Ellis or Biedrins will get.

Teams cannot back-end deals at any value just to make a deal more enticing like they can in football.  The raises are not compounded, but based only on the first year of the contract.  (see: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#46) Raises are capped at 10.5% of the first year value.  Your raises exceed this for Ellis and Biedrins exceed this after the first couple of years and the raise for Azubuike isn't even close.  They aren't legal under the present CBA.  I realize that these were just guesswork contracts, but so long as we're going guesswork with multiple year projections, may as well create a contract that won't be rejected by the league rules.

by jae on Nov 27, 2007 8:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

crap
I didn't realize raises didn't compound. Well, that throws everything out of whack.

Without going to change the spreadsheet, it looks like the initial years are gonna have to get bumped up a little bit to get to the target average annual salary.

Also, keeping Biedrins for the qualifying offer is a possibility I hadn't considered. While it could happen and thus open up ridiculous cap space for us (from $9-10 to $4M), it also means Biedrins will hit unrestricted free agency. The Warriors do not want that to happen. It's far more advantageous to lock him into $6/62 or whatever this offseason than go to 2009, when lots of teams are manuevering for cap space.

I'm in class now, but i'll redo that later.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 9:05 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Biedrins & the Cap
After watching Dalembert & Kaman play against the dubs, I'm not so sure Biedrins will be getting a contract that pays him $10 million/year over 6 years.  

The fact that he's 21 and has had some incredible games may cause teams to take a chance on him, but at this point his weakside shotblocking and post moves are not where I thought they would be, and his rebounding is inconsistent.  He is getting a lot better at handling the ball, and even  had a great assist to Kelenna last night, but its hard to justify giving a large contract to a player who cannot really post up or shoot, period.

I could see Azuibuke getting the full MLE.  He's played very well to open the season and should only get better.  And lastly, I'm still hoping the warriors might bite the bullet for just one year and go into the luxury.  Once Foyle's completely off the books, we're sitting pretty financially.

by BingBluNT on Nov 27, 2007 10:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

biedrins
Biedrins game is unorthodox, measuring his ability to do what convention centers doesn't really do anything to show how he's generally productive.

Adam Lauridsen made a great point in his latest blog that in Nellie ball, there will be matchups where Biedrins goes to the bench. That he's on the bench and can come in and still play, however (as we saw him pushing the rock himself), remains a vital option for the Warriors. It's one thing to go small because you have to (i.e. the suns since they let thomas go), it's another thing to have the luxury or going small whenever you feel like it, which has been exploited to great effect.

We start small, suns started normal. We run them off the court, suns went small, we went big. They went big, we went back to small. Matchup hell, made possible by options.

I guess you could quibble about the $10M part, but really, that's not super star money, and it's about what Al Harrington make, not much more than what Jack makes. He's not getting a ridiculous, franchise crippling Marbury/Francis/Lewis type of deal, and furthermore he  is 21 and plays both ends of the court.

Biedrins claim to fame is efficiency, and he does so many little things (FG%/RBR) that aren't always quanitified in the money stats (PPG/RPG).

$10M is a bargain, we should be glad Jefferson has gaudy stats and signed the deal he did.

I doubt any owner wo uld go into the luxury tax for a non-contender, so the only way we could possibly do it is if we go to the conference finals this year. I cannot see Cohan justifying a lux tax payment for an 8th seed.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 10:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Funny, U mentioned nelly's match up games..
I just had a picture of the houston game last year, where everytime yao went out, nelly would shuffle beans in.  Van Gundy's frustrated face was priceless.
Best duo since...

by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 27, 2007 12:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Biedrins for the qualifying offer
What if this happened: Biedrins signs for just the qualifying offer, and then we immediately offer him that contract extension for $8-10mil/yr for max years.

I don't know if this is allowed or not, maybe JAE can step in.  But it really helps both parties involved, Biedrins gets the biggest possible sum of money (as opposed to just signing a completely new contract with someone else outright, in which he doen't get the additional qualifying offer money), and we get fiscal manueverability for next season.

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 1:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If we do that
wouldn't the maximum contract be higher?
Best duo since...

by Tim N Chris Burger on Nov 27, 2007 1:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

don't understand
I don't think I understand by what you mean by maneuverability.  If Biedrins accepts the one year qualifying offer, we won't be able to renegotiate it until the next season, at which point he'll be an unrestricted free agent (though we'll retain his Bird rights).   He gets paid the QO amount for the year, not the larger sum that he'll want, and nothing can be guaranteed for the future, as he can't sign another deal at that point until after the year's up and we cannot offer him anything officially until he's a free agent again (unofficial deals are frowned upon and, as Minn found out, they can come back to bite you in the ass).

by jae on Nov 27, 2007 2:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks for clarifying
I guess we can't sign him for the qualifying offer and then immediately give him the extension..

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 2:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

the big picture
08 offseason guaranteed payroll: $49mil
08-09 projected salary cap: $58mil
08-09 projected luxury tax: $70mil

Assuming Baron doesn't opt out, the Warriors will have about $21mil of space under the luxury tax to spend on our following future free agents:

Pietrus
Barnes
Biedrins
POB
Croshere
Hudson
Ellis
MBenga
Buke

Included in the $21mil, we will have $9mil of it under the salary cap to spend on a free agent if we choose to go that route.  But any money we spend on re-signing our own players before the free agency period begins is subtracted from that $9mil.

Additionally, this doesn't take into account the various signing exceptions we'd need to use to sign players when we're over the salary cap (ie: MLE, BAE, Bird Rights, etc.)

And this is how our guaranteed depth chart looks at the start of next offseason:

PG Baron /
SG Belinelli /
SF Jackson /
PF Harrington / Wright
C Perovic /

Lots of holes to fill..

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 12:14 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

that $9mil
There's a couple free agents possibly under $9mil worth mentioning:

Josh Smith, Luol Deng and Andre Iguodala will be restricted free agents.

If Ron Artest chooses to opt out, he will be an unrestricted free agent.

Other notables:
PG Delonte West - RFA
PG Calderon - UFA
PG Ollie - UFA
PG Louie Williams - UFA
PG Dan Dickau - UFA
PG Arroya - UFA
PG Dooling - UFA
PG Chris Quinn - UFA
PG Telfair - RFA
PG Udrih - UFA
PG JC Navarro - UFA
PG J. Williams - UFA
PG Daniel Gibson - UFA
PG JJ Barea - UFA
SG Gerald Green - UFA
SG Antoine Wright - UFA
SG Mo Evans - UFA
SG Delfino - RFA
SF Dorell Wright - RFA
C Lorenzen Wright - UFA
C Okafor - RFA
C Kwame Brown - UFA
C Ronny Turiaf - UFA
C Magloire - UFA
C Skinner - UFA
C Kurt Thomas - UFA

Before we go devoting $6mil to Ellis who we're not even sold at starting at SG or playing backup PG, maybe we should see how the free agent PG market develops first.

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 12:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

how we attack the offseason
Biedrins is our only RFA, and I honestly believe he's more valuable to the Warriors than he'd be to most other teams in the league.  For that reason, there's a wonderful slim chance we keep him next year for his $3.6mil qualifying offer.  For this slim chance alone I can see why he wasn't extended this offseason.  Even if other teams do bother to try to steal him, I don't see him costing us more than $8-10mil to match offers.

Honestly I think we should try to go for the best players available.  If Iguodala, Ron Artest, or Josh Smith hit the free agency market, we should make signing one of them our main priority.  It's unlikely Philly would let Iguodala go, he's the clear cut cornerstone of their franchise.  But in Atlanta, with Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, and now Al Horford; paying Josh Smith alot of money to stay may not be a top priority for them.  You never know with Ron Artest, something could happen and he may just choose to opt out.  Adding Josh Smith or Ron Artest to our roster would fill our depth at both forward positions, negating our need to re-sign Barnes, Pietrus or Croshere.

Next priority is our starting shooting guard.  I think Buke will be the best player available and I'd willingly spend the MLE on him.

Next priority is backup point guard.  Most of those free agents I listed will be re-signed by their respective teams, but some of the good ones won't and maybe we can get one with the 2mil BAE.  Or if Cassell becomes available for the minimum I'd get him.

Next up is backup center.  MBenga, Turiaf, Skinner, or Thomas for the minimum.

PG Baron / Quinn / 1st rounder?
SG Buke / Belinelli
SF Jackson / Wright
PF Josh Smith / Harrington
C Biedrins / MBenga / Perovic

Recap:
Quinn via BAE for 2mil
Buke via MLE for 4mil
Josh Smith via RFA for 8mil
Biedrins via BirdRights for 4mil
MBenga via Minimum for 1mil
1st Rounder for 2mil

That would put our payroll at roughly about $70mil, right at the luxury tax.

Of course.. these are extremely optimistic predictions, so we'll see..

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 1:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

correction
we keep Biedrins for his qualifying offer of less than 4mil, and then extend his contract for the 09/10 season on for $8-10mil or whatever, and we can afford it because Foyle's buyout will then be off the books.

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 2:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ahh offseason moves, my favorite thing to do.
So far i've been up for trading away the main 3 (Baron, Al and Jax if possible). I said this because the ceiling on this team is the 7-8th spot in the playoffs. If we can only be a one and done playoff participant, i don't see the point of paying guys max deals. But most likely the warriors will try and stay the course with the main three while hoping the young talent eventually pays off. Building through the draft is one of the most fundamental tools to build a championship. That and good FA signings.

I think our most tradable asset is Monta Ellis. Although his value can rise and fall at any moment. What we should do is find a team willing to deal a first rounder.

If we did stay the course i think the signing of Smith/Iggy or Deng would be very enticing, especially if we can sign AB to the QO (with every intention to sign him next summer). The only drawback is that we'd have Baron to deal with after his contract ends. If we signed Iggy or Deng for example, that would mean we couldn't resign Monta, and depending if Cohan wants to go into the luxury tax (which would probably depend on if we're a contender by then) we might or might not resign Baron. Lets say Baron does opt out, that would leave the warriors with a roster of:


  1. Belinelli
  2. Deng or Iggy
  3. Wright
  4. AB
We would most definitely need to draft a PG in the 08' draft or sign a guy that can produce but not command a max deal (Calderon anyone?).  

What i would try to do is make a draft day trade of Monta Ellis, Al Harrington and a future first (or a swap of first round picks) for OJ mayo and to make things even, a crap contract from the other team.

From what i've seen Rose and Beasley (the only other 2 that would really propel the warriors into a contender for years) are showing NBA scouts that they are true franchise players and would be tough to trade up for. I think Mayo could drop in the draft anywhere from 3-5 overall.

That would be an amazing starting 5 with very little depth since i'm assuming we could resign Buike for the MLE at 4-5 mill. for example. But we'd have to let Barnes, Croshere, MP, POB, Thud walk. We'd have to rely on veteran minimum and second round or undrafted rookies as our backups much like Boston is doing.

So b 09-10 season we'd have:

  1. OJ Mayo
  2. Belinelli/Azubuike
  3. Iggy (I prefer his playmaking ability)
  4. Wright
  5. Andris
This team has all world athleticism, but very little depth. It would appear that Mullin has to be a very crafty draft evaluator and FA signer. But this would be an exciting team that i would love to watch play and be patient with because we have A. A decent frontcourt that has length and rebound (hopefully their offensive games expand as well), B. Two legitimate scoring options (MAYO & Iggy) at the wing,  and C. NO DAMN SMALL LINEUPS! We'd be tough to matchup for almost anyteam in the league.

I think i just really want OJ Mayo. I can't explain it.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 2:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

trades
Monta cannot be part of a draft day trade.  If he is still with the team, he will be a free agent at that time.  The draft occurs before the free agent signing period.

Building through the draft is risky and rarely the way champions are built.  Certainly I'm not sure it qualifies as a fundamental way.  It works for some, like San Antonio, but if they weren't lucky enough to land the #1 when Duncan was available, their late draft heroics in Parker and Ginobli wouldn't have won a championship.  Is there a Duncan available this time?   Miami got Wade in the draft, but O'neal came through trade.  Most of their non-Wade team was not acquired through the draft, but by other means.  O'neal was key for three Lakers championships too, though he wasn't drafted by them.  He was a key free agent signeed.  They traded for Kobe, though they did acquire him before he played elsewhere.  The Pistons?  Hamilton, Wallace, and Wallace were all acquired through trade, Billups was a free agent signee.  Prince was a late pick.  

In the last decade, only one team (San Antonio) that has built their championship mainly through the draft.  Drafting well is important, but I don't think there's any evidence that it or any other method is the key to building a champion.  It takes sound management of free agents, trades, the draft and a not just a little bit of luck.  

by jae on Nov 27, 2007 3:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

asdf
I don't agree that the draft "rarely" leads to championships. Isaid they are one of the most fundamental keys to building a championship club.

San Antonio obviously drafted their big 3, Orlando drafted Shaq and made a draft day trade for Penny; they made it to the Finals, Houston drafted Hakeem, Sam Cassell, and Robert Horry for thier runs, Need i say Chicago drafted MJ and made a draft day trade to acquire Scottie? I think its splitting hairs in saying draft day trades are not apart of drafting players.

The only team that didn't have multiple drafted players was the Pistons.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 8:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

$9million doesn't really exist.
If we decide to keep Biedrins, we will have none of that $9 million.  We will not be under the cap unless the team decides to let him walk, relinquishing any rights to his Bird rights. A projected salary of three times his present salary counts against the cap until we sign him to a different deal or let him walk.  We cannot make a play at the free agent market and keep Biedrins.  

by jae on Nov 27, 2007 6:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Correct
But.. Biedrins is a RFA, correct?  Can't we sign our $9mil free agent at the beginning of free agency, and then after that match offers to keep Biedrins?  Then we can re-sign him to his max year contract in the following offseason.

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 7:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No
If we want to sign a free agent we can't retain our ability to match offers on AB. To do so we would need to extend a QO to AB which would then tie up any "cap space" that we had.

Think about the Orlando situation this summer. They had to rescind the QO on Darko in order to grossly overpay Lewis who was a free agent. In doing so they ticked of Darko and his agent and lost any chance of retaining him (not sure that they could afford him anymore anyway).

.

by olympicmike on Nov 27, 2007 7:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

ok
now i understand a little better, throws my idea out the window.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 7:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Biedrins and the Warriors
The more I think about Biedrins and the Warriors, the more I think that he may end up taking the qualifying offer and go for the big bucks when he is an unrestricted FA the following season, 2008-2009.

It seems that there may be no offers above the MLE for him.  There is just very little money under the cap, out there.

If the Warriors have no competition above the MLE for Biedrins, will they really offer him Kamin/Chandler money?  I tend to doubt it.  They may just wait to match any contract that he receives.  In that scenario, the best Biedrins can do is a long term MLE contract, maybe something like 8 years, $57 million.  Will he take that?  I would guess "no".

From the Warriors P.O.V., it buys them another year to commit to the big bucks and gives them more flexability next season.

We'll see.

by San Francisco Slim on Nov 27, 2007 8:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

biedrins
The QO hurts us because the year after we lose right of first refusal.

I do not want to walk into '09, when teams have cap space, with Biedrins unrestricted.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 9:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's a double edged sword, for sure
But we'll have bird rights, and who knows how many other teams will be able to put up big money?  Maybe none.  It's a calulated risk, absolutely.

by San Francisco Slim on Nov 27, 2007 9:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Projected Cap Space
For '09

Seattle has about $20M in expirings between Wally Z and Chris Wilcox.

Portland has Raef Lafrentz and James Jones for about $15M

Minnesota has Antoine Walker's $10M

Kinda early to project cap space two years into the future, but I don't like to face the possibility someone could up the price on Biedrins to $15M/year or whatever.

I also don't want to have to look for a contingency plan if he leaves or has some sort of Varejao situation.

There isn't too much risk in a $10M/year contract because he's already proven he's worth that much, demonstrated continued improvement, is very young, and fits the team perfectly.

UFA makes me very, very nervous.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 10:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I had delusions of grandeur
I guess throw away any possibility of getting Ron Artest or Josh Smith out the window.

I just wish we could add another impact player some how.  I just don't see any resemblance of a contender in our current roster minus Barnes, Pietrus, and POB; but I guess that's just how the cookie's going to have to crumble.  The ghosts of Foyle's contract continue to haunt us.

by jlagace on Nov 28, 2007 2:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

possibilities
The timing on signing Biedrins could be important.  Until his rights are renounced or he signs a new contract, he'll count for 3 times his present salary, even though he's not guaranteed that.  If we renounce him, we lose Bird rights, but he stops counting against the cap.  This won't happen.  If we re-sign him, his new salary counts against the cap (e.g. if he takes  the QO for the year, he only counts at that amount--far less than the 3x).  It's possible that he'll sign for more than the 3-fold increase, possible that he'll sign for less, but in any remotely plausible situation, this eats up any space needed to get a player who will want more than the MLE and as such, it doesn't matter vis a vis getting a new player via free agency.

When this could be important is if Baron opts out.  If he opts out and leaves, then we could be talking about the difference between an unsigned Biedrins counting ~7.5mil and a signed Biedrins counting closer to 10.  We'd be under because of Baron's contract evaporation.  A million here or there could be the difference between an attractive offer to a replacement (think Gilbert Arenas redux) or missing out altogether on anything of real value.

by jae on Nov 28, 2007 11:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

answer
trade monta RIGHT NOW... after back to back 31 pt games and before we play another game on wednesday :)

That way, we can hopefully get a 1st rounder yay :)

Nah, but honestly i have no idea what were gonna do. Biedrins is a guaranteed sign. after tonight im feelin like were gonna need to sign monta too.

But then i think: shit, we need to sign barnes too! and OZ will kill us all if we dont re-sign buike so i dont want that to happen. Bye bye pietrus for sure without question.

Still, i dont think well be able to have a roster of 12 ppl that includes biedrins, monta, buike, and barnes without going into the luxury tax... who has to go? Don't ask me

by NinerWarrior on Nov 27, 2007 12:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ron Artest, Aaron Brookes
If the team plans to keep Biedrins, Ellis, and Azubuike, then it would be wise for the team to move Al Harrington for Ron Artest. Artest's contract is up after the year of course, and the move would be great for the team short term, while still giving us the option to either sign all our guys, or to go a different direction via free agency. I love Al, and I am appreciative of what he does for our team, but I would rather see us re-sign those young players, and still have room to pick up another valuable player at the MLE.

I also believe that the Warriors would do well to make a trade with the Rockets for their 2nd round pick Aaron Brookes. He's a bit small standing at 6-0, but he matches Ellis' quickness and speed, shoots the three ball, and can set up teammates. He leaves something to be desired on defense, but he would fit in well with our run and gun style.

The rockets are overloaded at the PG position and could use some help at SF. Mickael Pietrus and a 2nd round pick could be enough to hook Brookes. Not that I think the Warriors are really in need of a back up PG, but I think Brookes would be T-Hud, and would allow us the room to pick up a swingman in the draft after Barnes' contract expires, if we don't want to re-sign him.

Ellis sure showed off some nice PG skills tonight making some great difficult passes. Wouldn't you agree OZ?

This is my team There are many like it But this one is mine. My team, without me is useless. Without my team, I am useless

by BlueNgoldBlood on Nov 27, 2007 1:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

yes on 1, no on 2
The Brooks/Pietrus trade is a fair trade for both teams, but the warriors need all the frontcourt help they can get.  We don't know if/when Belinelli will ever contribute but I'd rather wait for that, assuming he will be able to log 10-15 minutes a game by the end of the season.

I guess you might say that the warriors will be without Pietrus next season anyway so they'll have to adjust sooner or later, but Harrington, Barnes, and Croshere are all incredibly streaky and the warriors would perform worse without Pietrus.

Making a move for Artest fixes some of our holes but also comes with lots of risk.  Mullin will obvioulsy think twice before pairing Jackson and Artest again.  We'd still have only one legit bigman.  Artest is shooting the 3 well this year but throughout his career is a poor 3-pt shooter.   This does nothing to help our depth, although if we could aquire Artest without giving up Wright, then the rookie would probably be able to play 10-15 minutes a game by the end of the year.

Does Sacto bite?  If all we're offering is Harrington and Pietrus or a 2nd, I'm not so sure.  Just throwing some names out there, but Wilcox, Collison, and Varaejo would help the bigman problem, although I don't see any trades that would work for the warriors and Cavs/sonics.

by BingBluNT on Nov 27, 2007 10:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

lets try this again
ok, one more time this time with more properly structured contracts.

I used 10% of the initial year for Ellis/Biedrins since I'm lazy.

Changed Azubuike to straight $5M across for 3 years. Given his fluctuating playing time and touches, his value is kinda uncertain at the moment.

POB's gone. I'm starting to think that the early playing time was out of necessity and also to show case him a bit. Mbenga has leapfrogged him in the rotation. We'll see how that plays out.

It would be hard to squeeze an MLE deal for Barnes in there. Again, trading Ellis for useful parts makes it easier to retain Barnes or replace him/Pietrus and also gives us a little more leeway to make other moves in trade or whatever.

Ellis had a great game. A. Single. Game. Against steve nash. Beautiful to watch, amazing to experience, but not that useful for analytical purposes. It's a drop in the bucket. If i let a single game or two (against the suns, no less...as great an outlier as u can get for opponents) influence my thinking, I'd be telling people to do all kinds of crazy stuff.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 10:49 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ellis did carry us through the Philadelphia
And he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career.  If he can build up a consistent three point shot and increase his ft%, he should turn into an all star player.  I definately wouldn't throw all the money in the world at him... but if we gave away Richardson to keep both him and Beans and have a solid young core (with Belinelli, Azubuike, Wright and POB anchoring the youth movement), don't you think we should try and keep them together?  Its basically one season of salary cap hell until Foyle & Davis's salaries comes off the books... I would definately love to see Ellis stay with the W's.  Well all I can say is thank jeebus for the Gilbert Arenas rule... at least we'll have the option to keep him.  
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

by mightymadskillz on Nov 27, 2007 12:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

gilbert arenas
The Arenas rule does not apply. Ellis will have 3 years of experience, meaning we have Bird rights.

The Arenas rule applies only to players with 1 or 2 years of experience and hit free agency.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 1:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Monta's contract status
As I understand it, we have full Bird rights for Monta and he's a restricted free agent since he's had 3 or fewer years in the league, meaning we can match any offer.  However, you're absolutely correct about the Arenas provision.  Another team can offer him the world.

My guess is that he doesn't get a big offer because of the restricted status and the unwillingness most clubs have to go over the tax.  It will be very interesting to see where this all shakes out.

by jae on Nov 27, 2007 1:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ellis
Two diametrically opposed forces:
  • Not enough money available for teams to throw that much at him.
  • Precedent set by Harris/Nelson, who got $7M+ and $8M+.
That means Ellis shakes out at about those amounts annually. I don't think he's worth that much, but his agent certainly will.

If anyone else comes sniffing around for him, I would gladly work out a sign and trade for something useful OR trade him before then for a pick. Bringing back value seems like the optimal solution. That is the reason for all the talk about Ellis leaving, it helps him get his money (cuz we can go over the cap to pay him) and helps us replenish our roster (with a pick or other player).

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 2:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would love for
one of those two solutions.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 3:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Kevin Martin Breakout Season
Unless the above happens for Monta, I think it is likely that your first force takes out your second force.  Apparently almost all the teams are so close to the luxury tax, there will likely be little competition for Monta, who is a restricted FA.  It appears to be quite unlikely that he will get an offer above the MLE if he stays within the range of his current game.

The Warriors should be able to sign him in the $6-$7 million/yr season.  Same with Biedrins.  Lack of salary competition will put him in the low end of his range.  He'll sign for probably no more than $10 million/yr, as you surmised.  The evolution of the luxury tax has made this a buyer's market.

I think Azubuike will have lots of mid-level and sub-mid-level competition in the market, holding down his price, as well.  And I agree with a previous poster, the Warriors may prefer to go after Barnes if they have (let's say) $4 million to go after that spot.  It may be easier to find a cheaper version of Azubuike in the market than a cheaper version of Barnes.

It's a long way to go until next off-season, but right now I'd say the Warriors are in position to re-sign both Ellis and Beidrins, with Barron staying put and most other salary options up in the air.

by San Francisco Slim on Nov 27, 2007 4:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Azubuike - RFA
If I'm not mistake, the Early Bird Provision would let us match any offer up to the MLE. With right of first refusal, it should be easy to keep special K.

Since the EB provision creates a separate salary cap exception, we will have the MLE exception itself available to use on Barnes.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 6:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

True, Buike is listed as a restricted FA
I was thinking more in terms of the luxury tax, if the Warriors feel they can't afford both Barnes and Azubuike.

by San Francisco Slim on Nov 27, 2007 6:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Barnes or Azubuike
Trading Ellis eliminates that decision.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 7:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Keeping Monta..
I'm still not sold that we should by default re-sign Monta.  If we had no Baron, it would be a no brainer to keep him.  But I don't believe we should pay so much money for a backup PG.  Sure he can be used as a shooting guard, but that would only be truly effective against a few teams in the league.

If you read above, we're in the fortunate situation that we can make some noise in the free agency market, and if certain players become available, they should take priority over us re-signing Monta Ellis.  We have many other glaring weaknesses on our team that could be addressed.  Paying Monta Ellis $6mil+ to be our backup PG is like trying to fit an expensive, square peg made of gold into a round hole.

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 1:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The golden peg...
Yeah, I agree for the most part. Monta is obviously an explosive player, but until he shows that he can effectively run the point and increases his shooting range he is basically one knee/ankle injury away from being a useless player who used to dominate with his speed. I'd like to see a little more before committing serious dollars to him.
.

by olympicmike on Nov 27, 2007 2:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Its beginning to look
like we'll resign either Baron or Monta.

I now doubt the warriors will ever trade Baron for any value.

But Monta remains questionable. I think if we can include him in a trade of Monta, POB and Al + a swap of First rounders for a lottery bound team we should do it. We need to get our hands on one of Rose, Beasley, Mayo or shoot i'd even like Gordon, Greene, Arthur, or Jordan (If we can sign a servicable PG such as Calderon or even trade for Sergio).

We need to cover our asses with another PG, just in case Monta never develops, gets traded or Baron opts to sign with another team next-next summer.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 2:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Baron
probably isn't gonna opt out, so there isn't a decision to be made about re-signing him so much as extending him.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 27, 2007 2:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree too that
Baron won't opt out this year, but i don't think we can say for sure that the warriors are going to resign him when his contract is up in 09'.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 3:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

re BD & Monta
BD isn't as likely to be extended if the next coach can't handle him even close to as well as Nelson has - and I suspect most teams (& Mullin) know that which means he isn't going to be courted/in-demand much either. I agree & can see him playing out his contract as the most likely scenario unless he pulls an Iverson/Marbury ... Nelson will not be around long, we can't get value back for Baron commensurate to what he provides, and by the time his contract is up I'd rather not pump the big coin into him ...

re Monta, I think his fate is tied to the above and Jax - Ellis fits the Ws cuz Baron & Jax do the heavy lifting at the PG so his value is disproportionately high to us. I wouldn't mind him being a RFA at all, and even if he were a FA and we lost him to a higher bid we have AziBuke, who I'm quietly seeing as the heir apparent at SG despite his contract and performance lately

in short, I'm appreciating just how much Jax's PG skills matter to this whole equation, and because he's also not likely to go anywhere keeping Monta makes sense to me - again at the right price, but I'd rather not trade him. That said, his overwhelming physical advantage, his quickness, is the one that declines over time (tall guys are always tall ...) so he's gotta keep rounding out his game as he has

in Nelson we trust

by hardcore on Dec 1, 2007 10:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i hope
Monta has a good year.

I forget but can we package

Monta + Harrington (who doesn't have a BAD contract who can opt out in two years)

for one of the RFA's:
Iggy or Deng?

would part of the TPE have to come into play? And is it possible to do a double sign and trade with signing Monta and then shipping him out with Harrington while Philly or Chicago SnT Iggy or Deng? I'm not up on my CBA rules as i should be.

This all hinges on AB taking the QO BTW. This would give us two legitimate scoring options for the 08-09' season in Baron and Iggy/Deng, with Key supporting players: Jax, Buike and guys who can and should improve: AB, Wright.

It'd probably leave us with little depth.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 3:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Iggy/Deng
Even though I mentioned them, it's highly unlikely that their respective teams let them go easily.  They're both the clear cut cornerstones for their respective franchises.

Josh Smith and Ron Artest are in a different boat, and I think they have a higher probability of being available come free agency.

by jlagace on Nov 27, 2007 3:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yea
as i thought about it, it doesn't make much sense for their teams not to resign them.

I forgot about smith as i wrote that post

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 4:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Artest
Artest would have to opt out to be eligible for free agency, and I'm guessing he doesn't.  Which is why I think the Artest trade scenarios aren't far fetched.

I've also read that the Hawks are somewhat leery of signing Josh Smith to a high-priced long term contract, which also leads me to believe that he may be traded.

by San Francisco Slim on Nov 27, 2007 4:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

false value
The Mark Portugal syndrome: do everything in your power to get a guy who performs great against you even if there's far less evidence that he's able to do this consistently against the rest of the league. Perhaps this will strike Philly and/or Phoenix and they'll pony up picks for Ellis.  Since he's a minimum salary player any team on the market can get him right now.

by jae on Nov 27, 2007 7:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Phoenix
can give us Atl's pick this year.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Nov 27, 2007 8:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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