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Q&A: Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty, Ballhype, and Fanhouse

With the Warriors facing their NorCal rivals the Sacramento Kings tonight at Arco, I thought it would be an ideal time to check in with our man Tom Ziller. TZ has the most dangerous triple threat of any hoops blogger alive with his excellence on SBN brother site Sactown Royalty, his sharps on Ballhype, and his insights on the entire association over at FanHouse.

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Cali luv: From the Bay Area to Sactown!

Make the jump for his scouting report on the Kings and a few potential trade scenarios between the Warriors and Kings.

Star-divide

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Golden State of Mind: Tell us about the Kings' young stud 2-guard Kevin Martin. Through the first 14 games of the season he's putting up 24 ppg ( 42.7% FG and 39.4% 3pt), 5 rpg, 2.2 apg, and 1.4 spg. He even has a 43 and 10 explosion against the Knicks in Sac earlier this November to add to his resume. Is he a budding superstar? Is he a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or lower option on a playoff team in the West?

Tom Ziller: Here's why we love Kevin Martin so much: He's a star, and he's still budding. He's only 24 and he'll hang around the top 10 in scoring and True Shooting percentage (which factors in the value of threes and free throws), which is nearly an impossibly feat (something limited to ultra-efficient guys like Reggie Miller and Larry Bird). No one knows how high he'll reach -- in most cases, this would be a sort-of burden; you knew Kobe and LeBron were going to be MVP candidates after their first few years, whereas with a scorer like Martin, you're rolling the dice. But the great thing, and the reason Kings fans aren't worried about him, is that there are no dice to roll: He's locked up at a reasonable salary for five more years after this one. If he becomes a first-tier star (which would mean something like 28 points on 46% shooting with 5 rebs and 3-4 assists -- he's not far now), that's fantastic. If he doesn't? There's plenty of cap space and time to work with. And there are plenty of possessions too, because he's so efficient. This will never be a Kobe situation where there aren't enough shots to keep everyone involved -- Kevin just isn't built that way, he refuses to take bad shots (which sometimes frustrates us). I think it's safe to say pairing him with a dominant big and some good role players could get this team to legit contender status.


Golden State of Mind: Before last season Brad Miller was a very good center in the big man loaded Western Conference. He even managed to sneak in two All-Star appearances (one with the Pacers and one with the Kings). Aside from the cornrows what happened to Miller? What explains the big fall? Do you think he'll be able to rebound to that level this season for the Kings or he is trade bait?

Tom Ziller: He'd be trade bait if any team would even think about taking his contract. It's big and long (where have I heard that before?), and he's clearly on the downside. But he's bounced back rather well lately; he seems to be getting his footing in Reggie Theus' mysterious offense. He won't be as bad as he looked last year (he disliked Eric Musselman's offense greatly and had some issues with the premature birth of his daughter midseason), but he's not going to be the Brad of 2002-2005. I think Kings fans would be ecstatic with 12/8/4 or something similar. And the more he can teach Spencer Hawes, the better.


Golden State of Mind: Two season ago the Warriors were heavily rumored to be in the Ron Artest sweepstakes when the Pacers had him on the block and refused to play him, but then Sacramento snatched him up in an exchange for Peja. That trade helped propel the Kings to an exciting first round date with the Spurs in the 2006 NBA Playoffs. The Kings look like they're in a different situation now and most likely aren't bound for the 2008 NBA Playoffs.

How serious do you think the rumors are that Ron Artest is on the trading block right now? Also, do you think the Kings would consider trading Ron Artest in a salary dump for the Warriors' $10 million trade exception this season? How about for a package of Monta Ellis, Marco Belinelli, Patrick O'Bryant, and Kosta Perovic if the Kings are looking to build for the future? Would Kings' fans be happy about either of these trades?

Tom Ziller: I think the Kings are more apt to listen to Artest offers than they were in the fall, solely because of the strides made by John Salmons and Francisco Garcia. But the Kings aren't going to give him away -- that's what kept Mike Bibby in Sacramento last February -- because his likely cap relief isn't negligible. Geoff Petrie is being very patient with these moves, and because Artest is so valued Petrie will especially discerning on offers which come his way. Ellis wouldn't work because the Kings couldn't resign him in the offseason (unless he wants to take the midlevel, which I doubt). The Kings are looking for cap room (O'Bryant works), picks, and young bigs (O'Bryant doesn't work terribly well for the same reason as Ellis -- the Kings would have trouble resigning him and dealing with the point guard position this offseason). The only scenarios I can conjure up with regards to Golden State and Artest would use the trade exception, the first round pick, and whatever contracts Petrie is willing to pay out this year. It might come down to Petrie trying to attach onerous contracts to Artest, and I'm not sure Chris Mullin wants to take a Kenny Thomas or Shareef Abdur-Rahim back just to rent Ron-Ron for the postseason push.

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The entire GSoM crew would like to thank TZ for sharing his thoughts. Make sure to check out his work on Ballhype and FanHouse on the regular and head on over to Sactown Royalty anytime you feel like hearing the ring of digital cowbells. I will forever root for the Kings anytime they face the LA Fakers. The 2002 Western Conference Finals were rigged!

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And if you don't like that.....
you don't like Kings basketballllllllllllll

by Bill Curley 0wns j00 on Nov 28, 2007 12:56 PM PST reply actions  

hrm
I believe Ellis would come with his Bird Rights if dealt, so the Kings *could* technically re-sign him if such a deal were made. Whether or not thats a route they wanna go, who knows.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 28, 2007 3:01 PM PST reply actions  

Hmm
I'm possibly wrong, but also pretty sure the Early Bird rights are lost if he's traded. The point of them (as I know Dubs fans are well aware) is to allow teams to hold onto their second-round picks when they get potentially expensive. I believe Larry Coon's CBA FAQ says players can't be traded and keep Early Bird rights attached. Which is shame, because a Martin-Ellis backcourt would be straight fire.

by Ziller on Nov 28, 2007 4:53 PM PST up reply actions  

not Early Bird
Ellis will have 3 years of experience by this offseason. That gives him Full Bird rights, which are traded with players.

Early Bird rights only apply to first or second year players.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Nov 28, 2007 6:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah
My bad, you're absolutely correct. In which case: Hell yes Ellis for Artest would make me happy.

by Ziller on Nov 29, 2007 9:45 AM PST up reply actions  

me too
but do you think it would make Petrie happy?
It's almost like the Warriors have 6 guys out there... they always have a guy open! - Jon Barry commentating game 3 last year

by gsw4life on Nov 30, 2007 8:36 AM PST up reply actions  

I still...
...think people are being a bit too eager to shuffle Ellis out of town for Ron Artest. Then we REALLY have no Baron insurance. And Artest, to quote any number of sweaty, TV police commisioners, is "a loose cannon!"

by Zack Vank on Nov 28, 2007 4:04 PM PST reply actions  

ahhhhhhh
no video?

by InNellie WeTrust on Nov 28, 2007 7:45 PM PST reply actions  

A Reunification of....
The biggest, most ridiculous on court disaster in the NBAs history.  I like what Jack has brought to the table, but could the Warriors really contain two of these guys without exploding/imploding into chaos.  I'm not so sure its possible.  I think the Dubs are better off with the proposed Warrick trade.
I also don't want to give up on Ellis like everyone else in the last 13 years of Warriors history.

by Sneaky275 on Nov 29, 2007 4:17 AM PST reply actions  

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