Richardson, we already know, is due around $12M this year and more the subsequent few years.

Azubuike literally cannot be paid more than the MLE, the cap rules forbid it. Given the sporadic playing time  he's gotten combined with our right of refusal (rfa status), I think he'll very affordable, in the range of $4-5M annual salary. The years will depend on what Azubuike wants to do (long term security or quicker shot at big payday?).

Ellis, however, could demand anything up to $13M- he won't get the max, obviously, but his salary ceiling is considerably higher. Jameer Nelson got around $7M/year as an undersized scoring PG; Devin Harris got a little over $8M a year. Barbosa got only $6.5 or so but signed his before blowing up. Kevin Martin got $11M, but he's a pure SG and probably more productive than any of the guys I just mentioned (he has the 3P shooting as well as a ridiculous number of FTA).

Thus, I anticipate Ellis will demand around $7.5M. If he were willing to accept less, then my willingness to keep him correspondingly increases; if the price rises then obviously the reverse.

So here's the question:

Is Monta Ellis worth $7.5M (something like 5 years, $35-40M?)?

To answer that question, more questions:

1. How good is he now.
   
2. How good will he be.
   
3. What is his role, how well does he fit that role.
   
4. Given Ellis' role, can anyone on the roster replace his production in that spot?
   
5. Given the available FA or trade acquisitions, can anyone outside be brought in for less to replace all or most of his production?
   
6. Is there anyone we can draft to fill his spot?
   
7. The big one: Can we spend the money it would take to replace Ellis on something else entirely (PG/SF/PF/C) that will make the team better?

Number 3, regarding is role, however, ...Ellis's job is first and foremost scoring; any ballhandling or distribution he does is a product of our system, which spreads the floor with shooters and scorers and anyone with a mind to create will be able to rack up some assists. Is it a coincidence that Richardson had the best assisting year of his career (per minute) under Nellieball?

Thus, the system we play in means I must pause before doling out any praise for massively improved passing/ballhandling mentality. Sure, we've seen more flashes...but our offense as a whole has been rolling over fools. Would the offense be even better with even more penetration and superior distribution? The thought of a more efficient offense should frighten the L.

4. Can anyone on the roster replace Ellis? That's a more dubious question, and highlights the damage done with the (at this point) blown Belinelli pick and Hudson signing. Were belinelli productive, then yeah, we could just plug in Belinelli and Azubuike more and keep chugging along. They produce differently (less slashing, more 3P), at least we'd have another scorer ready to go.

If we had picked Crittenton, or as someone else mentioned, Daquan Cook, or if Nick Young had fallen to us...we'd be in great shape; we didn't, and we're a little bit stuck.

Azubuike as a fulltime SG, however, still has quite a bit of potential. His J is more or less back and could (I say "should) be better; we've seen him do alot of things finishing in transition or attacking the offensive glass to produce without plays. Sure, we post him up against any poor fool like Redick or Cassel or scrub defender to dissuade other coaches from playing those guys, but it's not like we run him through picks to free him for Js, or clear a side and let him face up all that much. His minutes and usage bear watching.

It's way, way too early to talk about 5 and 6, and any talk of 7 would be theoretical at best. One guy I'm keeping my eye on is Sebastian Telfair. He's a pseudo-starter on Minnie filling in while Foye is out; when Foye returns Telfair will be 2nd string (or 3rd, if for some reason they go with Jaric).

Telfair has played PG through out his career and was a bust for the first two years in Portland and Boston. Now, however, playing in relative obscurity, he's been pretty productive, with a career year from 3P and FG, and a AST:TO above 2:1. He might be as quick as Ellis, possess even better handles, racks up a good rate of steals, makes his FTs at a 78% clip.

Telfair is a FA and should get almost no attention. As a cheapo "reclamation" project, I like the potential there. This kid is only 22, so there is time and room to grow...and he will most certainly not get remotely close to $7.5M. The only problem is that he would require use of part of the MLE to sign, and we're probably gonna need the MLE to keep Barnes, so money for outside free agents is tight.

If we traded for him, we should (i think) get his Bird rights and be able to pay him anything.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

All I said was that we had athletic big men already- Harrington, Wright, Biedrins, POB, even Mbenga and Croshere are quicker and more mobile than other players of equivalent size.

As for Telfair, he won't sniff half of what Ellis is looking for and is a more natural PG (at least as far as I can gather).

I have never said that Ellis isn't talented- just not worth the money. Given that keeping him, Barnes, and Biedrins will use up every last ounce of cap space we have and lock our roster in for the next half decade, I am extremely hesitant to make such a commitment.

If we can secure a young talent(telfair is an good example, but only an example) that makes less money (which he will) and brings true PG skills to give Baron rest, all while retaining some semblance of flexibility, then I cannot see how we do not go that route.

If you are going to bump into the luxury tax, it should be for Kevin Garnett- otherwise, you're better off hedging your bets and giving yourself some breathing space.

We have a first round pick with which to find a scoring guard, and this draft (like virtually all drafts) happen to have small scoring guards in it.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze