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Q&A: Aran Smith of NBADraft.net on Brandan Wright

We're about a quarter of the way through another fine NBA season and we still don't know all that much about rookies Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli. To date they haven't played enough minutes combined in the NBA to fill up an episode of 60 Minutes. To satisfy our thirst for knowledge we decided to check in with draft guru Aran Smith from NBADraft.net whose work was recently praised in Sports Illustrated. Since we somehow managed to catch this very busy man, we also decided to talk a little bit about the 2008 NBA Draft- hey, it's never too early for real hoops junkies!

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Those of you who frequent NBADraft.net for all the fun year-round mocks might not know this, but Aran grew up in the Bay as a Warriors fan and is based in the city. The only thing that tops that is his dad is a loyal longtime reader of GSoM, so shout out to Mr. Smith!

bwright_warriors_wiz.jpg
Taking it Wright to the Rim!
(Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images)

Use your hops to check out Aran's thoughts on Brandan Wright.

Star-divide

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Golden State of Mind: Brandan Wright has gotten a reputation as not fully utilizing all his all-world talents because he didn't always seem to play hard at UNC (the "IF" factor). How much should the Warriors be worried about his drive? Also with guys like Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, and Matt Barnes the Warriors are a pretty fiery and intense bunch. How do you think Wright will fit in with the culture of this cast of Warriors on the court during his rookie season?

Aran Smith (NBADraft.net): I think he'll be fine. He works hard at his game and wants to improve. Although he's not a real fiery guy, that won't keep him from being an impact player in the future. Most importantly for him is to get stronger and find his optimum playing weight. He's in the perfect situation on the Warriors with his ability to run the floor and beat opponents down the court, as well as be a factor defensively with his length. As far as fitting in with the other Warriors, I think every team needs a mix of vocal guys and guys who lead by example. Brandon adds a good piece to the club both on and off the court.


Golden State of Mind: In Wright's NBADraft.net profile his NBA comparisons are Chris Bosh and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, which seems like both a tremendous compliment and a big expectation. Bosh has bloomed into a 20-10 big man and although he's slowed down recently Abdur-Rahim had a string of 20-8+ seasons in the late 90's and earlier part of this decade. The Warriors could desperately use a forward-center of that caliber. In your estimation how long will it take Wright to become that kind of player?

Aran Smith (NBADraft.net): He's going to progress steadily. Those are high expectations, but he has the potential to become that caliber of player. I spoke with one GM in Orlando (predraft camp) who questioned Wright's free throw shooting % and the fact that he didn't have range and wouldn't be able to score close to the basket due to lack of strength. But I countered with the fact that he's just 19 and should be able to fill out and that he shows a soft touch on his shot within 8 feet and should be able to extend that range in time. Wright should focus on shortening his free throw motion. He has the touch, but his form is too difficult to replicate each time.


Golden State of Mind: One of the major story lines for the Warriors this season is whether or not trading fan favorite Jason Richardson for Brandan Wright was a good basketball move. Do you think it was the right move for this team both in the short term and long term? The Warriors definitely needed another forward/ center, but is Wright the right man for the job?

Aran Smith (NBADraft.net): I love the trade. Richardson is one of those guys who won't be nearly as effective when his athleticism begins to drop off. He's 28 and already entering his twilight. This move gave rising star Kelenna Azubuike a chance to play plus the Warriors were able to land Belinelli later in the draft who should be their SG of the future. As great a character guy and fan favorite as Richardson was, this move keeps the Warriors young and gives them more promise for the future.

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Also see:

Stay tuned for Aran's thoughts on rookie Marco Belinelli and his preview of the 2008 NBA Draft!

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To be honest
I'm not really impressed with Aran Smith's analysis of the Wright situation.  Wright DOES seem a bit soft.  Also, at least get Jason Richardson's age correct.  He's 26.  And I like Azubuike a lot.  But "rising star" doesn't seem like an accurate description.

by San Francisco Slim on Dec 13, 2007 2:14 PM PST reply actions  

I wish
we could do a Q&A with Jonathon from DraftExpress or Aran from NBAdraft similar to last offseason that we had with Pree. I think that'd be fun.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Dec 13, 2007 3:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Jason Richardson
Is 26 -- 27 in  January.

He's definitely not "entering his twilight," but for whatever reason his game seems to have crested a couple of years ago. He's always been an excellent rebounder for his position, but his shooting and playmaking skills, which were so-so to begin with, seem to have diminished. He's averaging 1.4 FT a game -- beyond terrible for a starting SG. (Kobe and Wade are generally in the 7-9 range). And Nellie has said that though the effort is always there, he'll never be a very good defensive player.

I'm at the point where I think it was a smart move just as a pure salary dump. Unless Jermareo Davidson ends up better than Wright (unlikely but possible) it was a good trade. If Wright reaches the high ceiling Aran Smith and others have set for him, it could be one for the ages.

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 13, 2007 2:23 PM PST reply actions  

could be the knee
I read 40% of his shots this year are 3's

Thats a different player than two years ago

by Zig on Dec 13, 2007 2:49 PM PST up reply actions  

J-Rich
J-Rich's game continued to improve from his rookie year until getting to the 19/20 PER level two years ago.  Last season, was in two parts.  The beginning of the season until March, when his knee clearly had still not recovered and he struggled.  Then March and the playoffs, when his knee recovered, and he played at the same level as he had the previous two seasons.

This season his assists and rebounds are there, it is his shooting and turnovers which are troublesome.  Small sample size.  Wait until the end of the season to judge him.

But as I have stated before, you have to judge every year of a trade.  Right now it is not a good trade for us.  We could use J-Rich.

In a year, if we use J-Rich's money to sign Biedrins and Ellis, and if they are worth it, and if and when Wright comes around, this COULD be a good even a great trade.

But, objectively, Wright does not seem like a sure thing at this point.

by San Francisco Slim on Dec 13, 2007 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Right now
It is a good trade for us, since JRich is sucking. How exactly could we use a "shooting guard" who's shooting 40% from the floor, 60% from the line (on the rare occasion that he gets there) and averaging just over 1 assist per turnover? Addition by subtraction -- so far anyway.

Yeah, small sample size: over 700 minutes, 25% of the season. He probably will bring those numbers up somewhat. But then Wright will probably bring his numbers up too. Interesting that you're so patient with the guy who's playing 35 minutes a night, yet so eager to make "objective" pronouncements of the other guy based on 60 sporadic minutes total.

Unless your point is just that we haven't seen enough of Wright to say anything for certain. I agree with that, obviously. But as I said, even if he never "comes around" (pretty unlikely given his combination of length, quickness and skill), I like the trade. The only way I won't like it is if Jermario Davidson ends up being a stud.

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 13, 2007 4:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Not so fast
J-Rich is not really sucking this season.  He's got a higher PER than Azubuike, although still slightly below league average.  

You are a rational guy, I know.  The odds are quite good if not outstanding, that J-Rich will improve as the season progresses.  Again, he played at his top level, once he was healthy last season, just a few months ago.  It is quite normal for players to take awhile to adjust to a new team.

Seriously, you don't think the Warriors would be better with J-Rich taking away minutes from Pietrus and the 9th, 10th and 11th guys on the team?

And can we agree that Wright is an unknown quantity at this point?  And, at least according to his coach, is not ready for the NBA?

To me, while athletically talented, he looks a little soft and I would question his motor. Yes, those are jugements of mine. They could be red flags or they could mean nothing.  I don't know.  I think it's fair to say objectively he is not a sure thing.  I certainly don't think I'm "eager" to say that.  I'm just stating what I perceive.  

by San Francisco Slim on Dec 13, 2007 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

By PER
He's currently the 49th ranked shooting guard in the NBA -- 0.11 points ahead of Buki (#51), 0.90 points ahead of Pietrus (#64), 0.78 points behind a hypothetical "average" player, and 2.57 points behind Monta Ellis (#27).

I guess it depends on your definition of sucking. I'm not exactly sure where the threshold of helping your team v. hurting it lies (JAE?), but I'd guess JRich is flirting with that line. And that's before considering his ridiculous 4 year/$51+M contract.

Seriously, you don't think the Warriors would be better with J-Rich taking away minutes from Pietrus and the 9th, 10th and 11th guys on the team?

Seriously, I'm not sure, and neither should you be. Your hypothetical isn't really fair: you have to consider that he'd also likely be taking minutes from Jack, Monta and Azubuike. On balance, I'd say we'd probably be slightly better with him, but very, very marginally so, and only if you look at this year in a total vacuum.

I think it's fair to say objectively [Wright] is not a sure thing.

Well, yeah. That's either a straw-man or pleonasm, take your pick. It's fair to say that about anybody, including JRich. As I said, I consider the deal a good one even without factoring in Wright, so I can gladly live with the lack of certainty.

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 13, 2007 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

sigh
Jason Richardson is leading the Bobcats in FGA (as of a couple days ago).

He has the worst FG% of all starters, probably one of the worst on the team overall.

Do we really need another volume chucker who doesn't do much else?

At this point Buike's rebounding is as good or better as well.

Any PER advantage is likely derived from more points, which comes from more FGA. He scores more cuz he shoots more, and not at a better clip.

Biedrins is a better FT shooter.

This is a dead issue: Richardson would not have helped us the least this year, money or not.

The Bobcats fans call him J-BRICK...which is sadly quite accurate.

They are -9 on offense with him on the court.

If you believe Richardson will help the Warriors this year, you are wrong, by many measures. People are entitled to believe whatever they want- but that doesn't make their opinions the least bit credible...and in this particular opinion, there's no credibility at all.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 13, 2007 10:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Az and Rich
The hurting/helping threshold is context dependent.  If you are a moderate player on a terrible team, you don't have to help much relative to your replacements.  An average NBA player usually helps a bottom-feeder.  Average NBA players would probably have a hard time getting off the bench in San Antonio though.  It really depends what your baseline is.  If you consider a .500 team as the baseline, Richardson's performance is below the level you'd need to get the team to that point.  Not much below, but a bit below.  He'd probably be better served cutting down on his FG attempts.  He and Gerald Wallace don't seem to function well together.  It hasn't been a good marriage for either's performance.  Richardson's performance is such that about half the guards in the game have been able to outperform him minute for minute, half haven't.  I'd say that straddles the help/hurt line.

PER is far, far, far too rough a measure for splitting the differences you see between the two players.  It doesn't map on to victory probability well enough for my likes.  Since winning is what the game is about, a statistical measure that doesn't map onto victories isn't as valuable as one that does.  Hollinger has the stat on ESPN, so people will continue to cite it, but there's no difference between 14.22 and 14.11 and there's no guarantee that one has had more of an impact in the W and L columns than the other.  

I see very, very little difference in the cumulative performance of Azubuike and Richardson this year.  Richardson isn't shooting as well and is shooting too much, but he's hitting a disproportional number of threes and seems to be picking up more steals.  It's rather similar in total.  I see an edge to Azubuike at this point and given where they are in their careers and what they're paid, there's no question who I'd rather have at this point.  I do expect Richardson to get back closer to the form he had a couple of years ago, but that won't justify the salary.  If the equation is Az vs. Richardson at the same price, I'm not sure.  If it's Az and Wright (just for elusive "potential") for about $3 mil vs. Richardson for 11?  

If Richardson was doing what he's doing in Charlotte, I don't think he'd be helping one but by taking minutes from Azubuike or Jackson or Ellis and likely not by taking minutes from Barnes or Pietrus.  It's very marginal.  More often than not (about 2/3rds of the time in the data I've seen) when players change teams, they see dips in their performance, so it's probable that Richardson would be doing better if he stayed here.  But again, it's very marginal.  

by jae on Dec 14, 2007 8:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Different Argument
If I thought that this is the level (14.22 PER or whatever metric one uses) that Richardson will play, I would not make the argument that his presense would make the Warriors a better team.  Well, maybe slightly better, if it takes minutes away from Belinelli and Hudson, and rests the other rotation players enough to make performance better, but not much.

First off, it wasn't two years ago that Richardson performed at his best level.  It was five months ago, once he had fully recovered from his knee surgery.  His present drop off can likely be attributed to adjustments and team chemistry and not to physical deficencies.  His athletic stats, rebounds, steals, blocks, are still similar.  His shooting % and style (going to the hoop less) are what are hurting him.  I suspect he would be performing at a higher level if he were on the Warriors.

At this point, I am addressing Sleepy more, but J-Rich is much more of a sure thing than Azubuike and B. Wright.  Your logic is a little off on that   point, IMO.  Projections are determined through past production, Wright has next to nothing to go on, Azubuike, not a lot.

Which is why I thought Draftnet's comment about Azubuike being a "rising star" was rather goofy.  Josh Smith is a rising star.  Buke is a decent player who could/should get better, but is mostly an unknown.  By NBA standards, he's not even that young.  When Josh smith was that young, it'll be 2010.

by San Francisco Slim on Dec 14, 2007 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

minutes
Hudson and Belinelli get how many minutes per game? Are they even averaging a combined 7 minutes per game (available games, not games played given how many DNPs they've racked up)?

So you'd have Richardson around because he'd be an improvement in the couple dozen worthwhile minutes we've actually given them? I don't think so.

Richardson's failure in the Bobcats are the same failures he had when he was here, so I don't see why people insist on thinking he'd miraculously improve the team by donning a blue and gold uni.

He's bricking his FT's, taking too many perimeter J's, failing to create individual offense, not distributing or creating opportunities for others, and mediocre on defense. That's the same dude we traded away and the same dude Bobcats fans get to see.

He's effectively Jason Kapono, except he can't shoot ft's.

The only thing keeping him afloat offensively is a superb 3p%, which he may or may not maintain (As it's virtually a career performance from the arc).

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 14, 2007 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

The sure thing
I guess I'm still not sure what your point is, Slim. Do you actually think the JRich trade was a bad one for the Warriors? If so, say so. It's confusing when you keep using straw men (e.g. "Wright has next to nothing to go on") and fuzzy terms (e.g. "sure thing.")

Is Richardson...

A sure thing to return to his career peak?
A sure thing to improve slightly from where he is now?
A sure thing to become a good FT shooter?
A sure thing to become a good playmaker?
A sure thing to become a good defender?
A sure thing to be better than the average starting SG in the NBA?
A sure thing to outperform Kelenna Azubuike?
A sure thing to outperform the Warriors' 9th and 10th men?
A sure thing to help the Bobcats to the playoffs?
A sure thing to be worth $12.5M a year?

I grant you that he'll likely improve slightly from his currrent numbers and that he'll almost certainly outperform Marco Belinelli and Troy Hudson this year. The other propositions ... not so much.

Update: Bobcats up 9 over the Magic at the half, JRich with a modest 10 pts (4-7 fg, 0-2 ft). Actually, the playoffs probably are within reach for them. Okafor/Wallace/Felton is a pretty nice nucleus, by Leastern conference standards...

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 14, 2007 6:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Update #2
The Man-Beast (33 points, 18 boards, 4 blocks) and the Magic absolutely flatten the 'Cats in the second half 61-36, to win going away.

JRich finishes with a quiet 15 (6-13 fg, 0-2 ft, 2 rebs, 4 assists), 5 points on 2 for 6 shoting in the second half. Very anecdotally, "Mr. Clutch" has been "Mr. Mediocre" this year in close and late situations -- possibly more mediocre than normal.

Anyone here wanna bet me right now that JRich will end up having a better season in 07-08 than Mike Dunleavy Jr., by any reasonable statistical measure?

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 14, 2007 7:45 PM PST up reply actions  

My point
Here is my original point:

"But as I have stated before, you have to judge every year of a trade.  Right now it is not a good trade for us.  We could use J-Rich.

In a year, if we use J-Rich's money to sign Biedrins and Ellis, and if they are worth it, and if and when Wright comes around, this COULD be a good even a great trade."

Again, right now, this season, I am saying it is not a good trade for the Warriors, because with J-Rich the Warriors would be a better team.  Option doesn't believe this is so, and I'm not sure if you do either.

I say J-Rich would make the Warriors a better team, because, when he was healthy last season, he was their 3rd or 4th best player, in the same system and with the same personelle as this season. He also had played at the same level most of the last 3 previous seasons and he is only 26, still in his prime.

After this season, if and when they can use J-rich's salary space to sign Biedrins/Ellis and if and when Wright develops, this could be a good even a great trade for the Warriors.

But my point, simply, is that that hasn't happened yet.  It's still theoretical, although perhaps probable.  I've never said anything else, just mostly trying to defend why I think J-Rich would improve this team this season.

As to what I meant when I said "Brandon Wright is no sure thing", I was referring to Wright's chance of being a good player.  It's a phrase that is often used to comment on rookies.  We have seen precious little of Wright, but right now he can't play well enough to get on the court, so he has along way to go.  I like his potential, but I'm not sure if he will ever get to the level of a good player.

Where as Jason Richardson IS a good player. He is playing less than that at the moment, but I believe that is an aberation, as I have previously pointed out. Richardson was talked about as being a bubble All-Star for a couple of years.  He's not great, he is not a good defensive player, etc.., but nobody thought he wasn't worth the #8 pick of a talented draft at the time of the trade.

And Azubuike is decent, but not at the level J-Rich was at the same age.  Mostly he doesn't have the experience.  He COULD become a good player, but is less of a sure thing in that regard than J-Rich.

by San Francisco Slim on Dec 15, 2007 4:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Fair enough.
Main point I would dispute is that "nobody thought [JRich] wasn't worth the #8 pick of a talented draft at the time of the trade." Check out the draft-night coverage when you have second: Stephen A. Smith was screaming (not unusual for him, but still) about what a bone-headed move it was for Charlotte. And, IIRC, his colleagues basically agreed with him.

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 15, 2007 5:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Okay
Maybe not "nobody" (hey, does Stephen A. Smith count as somebody?), but most people thought it was agood value for Charlotte at the time, salaries not withstanding.

My main point is that while it appears that the deal has great potential for the Warriors, and I agree with you, because it gives them much better salary efficency, it's just that it hasn't happened yet.  And one thing I know from watching decades of sports, all sorts of things that look like they are going to happen, often don't.  But, I totally agree, replacing Richardson's salary with Ellis and Biedrins ' salary, should be a great deal for the Warriors.  

And, I also agree, if that scenario works out, Wright is gravy.  But my own take was that Aran Smith's opinion on Wright was a bit too much on the sunny side. I would say that under any circumstances if the #8 pick ends up playing only a few minutes on a team that could really use some depth, then that is troublesome.  We know that Nelson is wierd with rookies and Wright is still very young, but it's difficult to be too optimistic at this point.  Although, at the same it's difficult to be too pesmistic.  It looks like a lot of gray area.

by San Francisco Slim on Dec 15, 2007 7:16 PM PST up reply actions  

part of me thinks
Davidson was the real reason they made that trade, and jrich was the throw in..hehe

by dj fuzzylogic on Dec 13, 2007 8:31 PM PST up reply actions  

i might be biased
But i'm an avid NCAA watcher. I watched Brandan as much as i could the whole season and always wondered what he'd be like on the warriors (not to mention Oden, Durant, Horford). I was ecstatic when we landed him. J-Rich? Not a big loss for me, seeing as how i never thought he was worth the praise everyone gave him as a player. That's not a knock on his character as a person, he's actually pretty awesome. My girlfriend met him a couple times when he'd come into her clothing store.

Anyway, coming into college Brandan was the 3rd highest prospect in all of high school basketball behind only Oden and Durant! Pretty good company. He doesn't seem to be a slouch either. I'm willing to give him time to develop because i believe his mix of talent and work ethic will at least get him into a solid starting role. Getting into the KG-Bosh area is certainly a posibility, but not a certainty.

I also question another thing, AB's listed weight when drafted was 240-ish. I heard recently that AB's playing weight was 230! I know that AB's playing out of position at center (He was drafted as a pf), but dang, bulk up AB! To be a great center, i think AB will have to add muscle and get into the 245lb playing weight. But it might take away his quickness which is his bread. Same thing with Monta and Brandan. They need to up their playing weights as well without taking away quickness.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Dec 13, 2007 2:48 PM PST reply actions  

Good Article
Wright has the potential to be a very good player, although it will take some time. Personally, I thought the trade was a good thing as it has allowed Kelenna and Monta to shine and have more playing time. I'm looking forward to Aran's thoughts on Belinelli and next year's draft.

by zaki on Dec 13, 2007 3:10 PM PST reply actions  

I forgot to add
That it gives us much more financial flexibility and a better chance of resigning our talented trio or Monta, Biedrins and Azubuike next summer. And it improves our Free-Throw Percentage, replacing J-Rich's playing time, who struggled to even hit 70% in his career (and is down at 61% this season) with minutes for Azubuike (near 80%) and Belinelli (near 80%).

by zaki on Dec 13, 2007 3:15 PM PST reply actions  

GRRREAT Trade!!!
IMO that trade was amazing!!!  Although J-Rich was by all accounts a great guy, he had MAJOR flaws in his game.  He is (was?) a great spot-up 3 point shooter, had a very pretty turn-around jumper from a 8-12ft post-up and was a great dunker.  However, he cannot, i repeat CANNOT dribble!!! How can an NBA player with as much talent as J-Rich not spend a hours a day practicing his handles?  I just don't get it.  Also we could really hit any jumpers off the dribble or coming off screens except for a curl to the FT line.  Overall, he was fun to watch in blowouts but made me cringe anytime he handled the ball otherwise.  To warrant a max contract you have to be able to dribble the ball and play D in my book.
Furthermore the cap space it provides is huge and B-Wright could be 10 times the player J-Rich is on his best day.  IMO Buke is already a better all-around player, would just needs more PT to gain the confidence to be a 17-20 ppg/ 5 rbg player that he will be.  So go Warriors!  Great Trade!

by GStateHeavyweight on Dec 13, 2007 3:50 PM PST reply actions  

J-Rich
Quote from SF Slim: "J-Rich is not really sucking this season.  He's got a higher PER than Azubuike, although still slightly below league average.  "

J-Rich-14.22
Azu-14.11

For how much more money he makes than Azubuike, I'll take the tiny dropoff.  It also frees more minutes up for Monta (16.8 Per).  In a salary capless world, I'd also rather have J-Rich, but you cannot honestly say that he is worth that much more than Kaz, especially since we have to resign damn near our whole team.  I doubt Cohan will delve into luxury tax land, so we cant keep everybody who's a fan favorite...sorry

by BeLEGENDelliAllDay on Dec 13, 2007 5:03 PM PST reply actions  

The real question
Given Baron and Jackson's age and contract status, would you be aggressive at the deadline in offering Wright for a legit PF or would you prefer to hold on to him, seeing as that he might develop enough for a playoff run this year and next year to help out the current team and then be a forced to be reckoned with thereafter?

by BingBluNT on Dec 13, 2007 5:36 PM PST reply actions  

Kinda depends
On the "legit PF," right?

I actually can't think of that many guys who fit all of the following bills...

  1. Worth trading Brandan Wright for
  2. A real upgrade over Harrington at PF
  3. Available and a possible salary match
JSmooth? Kirilenko? And...?

Meanwhile, Big Baby, the Celtics' freaking second round pick, is leading all rookies in PER and giving them totally productive minutes at C and PF... argggggggghhhhh!!!

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 13, 2007 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Look at Noah as well
He's starting to crack the rotation in Chicago. Tyrus-Noah reminds me some of AB-Wright. That's just me.

^^^You're right sleepy, there is a definite lack of quality or "legit" PF that's 1. Available 2. Fits the system 3. More productive than AL.

Jsmoove would be great, but only in a dream would he land here, especially after his Player of the week honors. Seems like he's taking it to the rim more and shooting less jumpers. Kirilenko i haven't watched, but he hasn't been in the news so that's good. Same with Marion. Other than that, who's left?

  1. Wilcox - I honestly don't know if he's available. I think Seattle would wait until after the lottery to see where they end up. If they land Beasley, they might shop him with a PG for a stud PG. If they land Mayo/Rose maybe they keep him.
  2. Tyrus Thomas - Maybe with all the contracts coming up with Chicago they package him for something. Chicago's been down on him and Sefolasha lately. Maybe Monta and POB for Tyrus and Thabo? We'd probably have to add more to sweeten that deal but i wouldn't give up Wright or AB for Tyrus.
  3. JSmoove - Discussed before but i can dream can't I? If he'd only shoot a higher % he'd be a $15 million per guy. Even still he's gonna get paid. There is no way we'd have enough assets to land him, which would have to be before the deadline, while still maintaining competitiveness.
  4. Channing Frye - I'm just trying to think of guys here and Frye came to my mind. He doesn't play much defense, but what Warrior does? He has a nice jumpshot which Nellie of course loves. Showed he had a limited post game as well. Could help in our half court set. I can actually see him and AB together on the court. Can he rebound is a question i have. I remember Mully wanted him in the 05 draft.
  5. Charlie Villanueve - Um, no i'd rather not have this chucker. Probably can't run either from that poor performance the Bucks had at the Oracle.
  6. Hakim Warrick - More of a combo forward, if that. Has not shown the ability to rebound at a high enough rate. He was a great shot blocker at Cuse', what happenned in Memphis? Anyone else know?
  7. Draft - This of course is my favorite and most intriguing option. I know we can't realistically think about trading into the lottery again, but i didn't think we had the assets last year, but look what happenned. Guys i like are:
DeAndre Jordan - Really raw, but amazingly athletic. At a legit 7'0'' 250lbs, he'd be a monster force inside if he'd develop at a consistent rate. I'd love to see him go against Andrew Bynum four times a year.

Darrell Arthur - Interesting 6'9'' 215lbs PF at Kansas. Shows a promising post game. Not as good as Horford's or the rebounding ability, but he does remind me of Horford.

Donte Greene - Granted he's not a PF, but at 6'10'' 215lbs he has great size at the SF position. Probably could play both Forward positions if he gains some muscle. He has a great jumpshot and good athleticism. Non-existent defense but has bloated block totals.

JJ Hickson - I have only watched him in spurts, but looks good. Not ready for the NBA though, but if he does declare, might be worth it on potential alone.

IF we didn'tt trade into the lottery, i could see us going for either Devon Hardin or Earl Clark. Those guys are mid to late first rounders so far. Anything can change of course, but i'd love to take those guys. Oh i forgot about Sleepy's main man Nicholas Batum. I wouldn't mind him either, although i haven't seen him in any games so i don't think i'll say anything.

Wow this post is longer than i thought it'd be.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Dec 13, 2007 8:13 PM PST reply actions  

various players.
Frye would be total waste.  He's a below average shooter and rebounder for a C/PF.  His jumper may be good, but since he seems to have zero inside game and no ability to get to the line, his rate of return on his shots is terrible.  He wouldn't help a bit and could hurt quite a bit.

Thomas would be a catch if we could pry him away.  I don't see that happening.  He's cheap for Chicago for a few more years.  They've got big contracts looming, but that argues they keep the more reasonable ones to round out their team.  I suspect they're try to keep him and Noah around.

Smith is a very intriguing player.

by jae on Dec 14, 2007 8:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Warriors draft
If we had taken Noah and Crittenton, we would have been set for the future.

"The Trade" was a terrific concept, but poorly executed...as I've said 100x times.

Think about what you'd rather have:

TPE
Wright
Belinelli

or

J-Will's expiring (or equivalent others)
Crittenton
Noah

We'd also have even greater flexibility to trade Ellis, since we have our backup PG. Baron would be more healthy. POB/Kosta could be dealt or cut easily. Biedrins/Harrington would have a legitimate backup.

but alas, I'm not the GM.

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 13, 2007 10:21 PM PST reply actions  

Wright/Beli v. Noah/Crit
I think it's a little early to make that judgment. The latter would have been an improvement in the short-term, but 1-2 years from now we could very well be thrilled with our lot.

As of right now, the picks that would have had the most impact would probably have been Sean Williams (at #8) and Big Baby (at #18). Both would have looked like reaches at their respective draft slots, but both were pretty highly coveted on this board, IIRC. Then again, we're assuming that Nellie would have had sufficient faith and patience to play either of them...

by Sleepy Freud on Dec 13, 2007 11:06 PM PST up reply actions  

cost
I'll take production now for two reasons:
  1. Baron/Jack/Al are built to win now
  2. The first couple years are when rookies cost the least.
Noah/Critt fit the team's timeline better and provide maximum value for their contracts.

Wright might be good in 3-4 years...but that's when you need to re-sign him. Basically you drafted him for the privilege of paying him to develop and demand a bigger paycheck from you.

Is that a risk-adverse approach? Perhaps, but blown draft picks set the franchise back, (See: O'bryant patrick, or...well...the entire Warriors draft history in the mid to late 90s).

Given that the chances of finding a champion-ship caliber building block are slim to none anyways, you can't really afford to screw up draft picks.

None of this is a slight on Wright, who still has a world of potential...but if everyone is going to  use "win now" as an excuse to attack our other off-season moves, I think it's equally appropriate to critique mullin's draft strategy.

And like the comment below, I'm not 100% sure Wright was our #1 choice at the slot.

Sean Williams might also be nice- but he doesn't rebound. He's basically Brandan Wright without the offense, but "readier" now.

I wouldn't have been unhappy to see Big Baby, though.

Given that Lasme is currently unemployed...

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 14, 2007 12:16 AM PST up reply actions  

yea but.......
Even with Noah and "Critt" this team wouldn't be that much better than it is now.  We'd still have the same weaknesses and no answer to the likes of Boozer, Duncan, and (gulp) Turiaf & Bynum.

I could not agree more that drafting a backup PG instead of O'Bryant or even Belinelli would have helped this team win more games and allow Baron to rest, but its too early to write off Belinelli.  Also, developing a rookie PG last year or this year in addition to Monta would've require a lot of patience on the part of the coaching staff, team, and fans.

If the warriors decide they want to go for a championship right now, Noah wouldn't be the answer anyway.  We need a power forward who can not only rebound and defend but also receive the ball down low and create a scoring chance himself.  Noah's not that player, and in today's NBA, most teams only get that kind of player via the draft.

that is the reason for choosing Brandan Wright.

by BingBluNT on Dec 14, 2007 2:33 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't think
the TPE will ever be used. So far have been reluctant to use the TPE or unwilling to use the exception. The only way i see Mullin convincing Cohan et al to burn the TPE is on an expiring. I seriously doubt their commitment to paying double the amount of money for a low-seeded playoff team.

I basically think of it as
Wright + Belinelli Vs. Noah + Critt

Draft picks only.

Noah/Critt would make much more sense for this team since we're (supposedly) geared to win now. Noah and Critt seem to be more NBA ready that Wright/Belinelli. Wright is a high potential, high risk pick, while Noah has less potential but can clearly help a club right away.

This is what makes the picking of Wright so perplexing. Misunderstanding or communication? Doubt that.

Maybe the warriors just felt since Brandan was left on the board, that he had too much potential to pass up. Maybe he didn't want to pick Todd Fuller over Kobe, or Adonal Foyle over Tracy McGrady like so many warrior mistakes by the organization before.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Dec 14, 2007 2:13 AM PST up reply actions  

wow i just sound like Captain Obvious
Oops.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Dec 14, 2007 2:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Belinelli
The problem was also the faulty scouting conclusion:

They thought Belinelli would be ready immediately (evidenced by all the Mullin/Nellie comments).

Most scouting reports thought Critt would take a little longer to develop, as he only had one year in college IIRC.

Hindsight, of course...

24 > 23

WE NEED A BACKUP POINT GUARD

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero @ Golden State Of Mind on Dec 14, 2007 9:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Quick Q
what does IIRC mean anyway? haha.
Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Dec 14, 2007 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Warriors
I doubt the warriors had a "mis-comunication" error with their phone or whatever.

I think Wright had to be their guy. There must be ample reason as to why they didn't pick Noah over Wright.

I would have like Critt at 18. I thought he was exactly what we needed, a pg.

I wonder if Sean Williams was available at 18 if the warriors would've taken him. Imagine a pf tandem of Williams and wright. Although they might be a little redundant.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Dec 13, 2007 11:38 PM PST reply actions  

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