Playoff Standings in 5 games

by gsdubz on Feb 23, 2007 8:13 AM PST Comment 17 comments

Wow so I know it's not good at all to rely on hoping that your competition loses, but I tried something different this morning.

I decided to analyze the strength of everyone's schedule in the next 5 games, (how good their opponent is, home court advantage, how they match up) and do a Las Vegas pick in each game to guess where everyone will be leading into early March (2nd-4th).

Here is where each team currently stands along with what it looks like each team should win in the next 5 games:

7. Denver 1-4 (L Utah, L at Dallas, W at Memphis, L Orlando, L Houston)
8. Golden State* 3-2 (L at Clipps, W Lakers, W Milwaukee, L at Chicago, W at NY)
9. New Orleans 2-3 (W Seattle, L at Cleveland, W Atlanta, L at Chicago, L Utah)
10. Minnesota 1-4 (L Phoenix, L Washington, L Dallas, L Utah, W at Boston)
11. Sacramento 3-2 (W at New Jersey, L at Indiana, W at Philadelphia, W Charlotte, L at Lakers)

New records/standings after 5 games:

Golden State! (29-31)
Denver (27-30)
New Orleans (28-32)
Sacramento (26-32)
Minnesota (26-33)

Explanation: All these teams have tough tough schedules coming up. As good as Denvers roster is, they aren't clicking and are playing really really tough teams consecutively.

I didn't want to jinx anything, but looking a few games ahead, it looks like we still have a great chance and need to start focusing on NOW rather than some stupid TANK theories!!!

*Even if the Warriors go just 2-3, they would still be in playoff position at 8th. I would rather have Dallas anyways, but a buffer would be good.

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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Comments

man

I hope you're right Dubz! I think we will play hard in every game left. We have a chance, we have to win on the road.

Warriors fan 4 life!

by tadams1080 on Feb 23, 2007 8:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Umm...

We lose to the Clips but beat Lakers on a back-to-back?

Blasphemy! ;)

by Yoyo on Feb 23, 2007 9:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

LOL blasphemy on you

We play clipps in L.A., but Lakers at home. We are a hell of a lot stronger at home, and if you don't support that, blasphemy!

It ain't EASY, stoppin' TOO EASY

by gsdubz on Feb 23, 2007 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ill be at the Lakers game.

And I'm undefeated so far this year (3-0), lets hope this streak continues.

by BiedrinsORBust on Feb 23, 2007 4:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We do

have a favorable schedule compare to other teams.

by semarubaka on Feb 23, 2007 10:00 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I like what you did here

but back-to-back games would have been nice to see, too. Most of the games look like easy picks (as in easy to see who the favorite is) except I don't know who to pick for the Nuggets-Magic, two teams that are struggling. I'm leaning towards Denver since they're at home. Wow,
does Minny have a rough 4 game stretch, although they are all at home. Just the fact that they're at home makes me think they'll win one of those games. They were the ones to break the Suns' streak, remember. But still, agree for the most part on predictions, good post.

More Hardware Coming!

by gsw4life on Feb 23, 2007 10:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

gsw4life said

They were the ones to break the Suns' streak, remember.

Yes, but they were without Nash. That team is human when Nash is out.

Through thinNthinN?

by k759 on Feb 23, 2007 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ya I know

but my point was that I think there's a decent chance they win one out of those four tough games since they're all at home

More Hardware Coming!

by gsw4life on Feb 23, 2007 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

you're wrong anyways

Nash played that game. He only missed a few games before the break

More Hardware Coming!

by gsw4life on Feb 23, 2007 11:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

we are gettin

that 6th spot, watch LA Fakers!

by djchuckdeez on Feb 23, 2007 11:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

very possible

flakers are really struggling right now

Let's Go Oakland! Gas, Brake, Dip.

by OaktownFunk on Feb 23, 2007 12:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It All Depends

On which Warrior team shows up. Hasn't that been the bain of our season (other than injuries)? So much inconsistency and brain/brawn freeze at the end of winable games. This team, with or without BD, has shown it can't win on the road (and the majority of the rest of the season is on the road). I like your optimistic analysis, so as they say, from your lips to God's ears.

by commish on Feb 23, 2007 1:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Statistically zero chance

Of this happening, GSD. Just too many variables involved. I think I agree with your overall conclusion -- that when you look at the everyone's upcoming schedules there's cause for optimism -- but the methodology seems pretty sketchy. Picking even one winner in a given NBA game is at best a 70-80% shot; picking 25 is basically like hitting the lottery.

Also: why just take it out to five games? Seems pretty arbitary. I'd like to see every team's schedule for the remaining 29 games -- and yeah, I'd throw the Flakers into the mix -- broken down into three simple pieces of information: home games, away games, and strength of schedule.

I don't have time or energy to work out strength of schedule, but listing the remaining home/away games is simple enough. Here:

LAL 30-25 (13 Home, 14 Away)
Denver 26-26 (13 Home, 17 Away)
Warriors 26-29 (12 Home, 15 away)
NO 26-29 (13 Home, 14 Away)
Minnesota 25-29 (15 Home, 13 Away)
LAC 25-29 (14 Home, 14 Away)
Sac 23-30 (13 Home, 16 Away)
Portland 24-32 (14 Home, 12 Away)

Anyone who wants to add strength of schedule to that, feel free...

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 23, 2007 2:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Kings

already lost the game you picked as a W for them, so maybe they'll go 2-3?

by semarubaka on Feb 23, 2007 7:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

no worries

obviously i picked a little bit more conservatively in some areas, cuz u can't be too safe... but so far all the other picks were right, denver lost, new orleans won... i could have cheated and just looked at the odds which showed NJ ahead of SAC lol

we'll see what plays out... i'm really hoping for 1 of the next 2.

It ain't EASY, stoppin' TOO EASY

by gsdubz on Feb 24, 2007 2:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll do the dirty work

I haven't done anything productive today anyways...

Data taken from: http://www.boxscorebasketball.com/strength.htm#grcon

Data takes home and away games into account, but not back-to-backs.

Bad news first: Warriors have 2nd toughest remaining strength of schdeule in the Western Conference.

Good news: Teams competing for the last 2 playoff spots round out the 4 toughest remaining schedules (toughest to easiest): DEN, GSW, NOK, LAC. Additionally, Sacramento has the 6th toughest remaining schedule. Minnesota sits right in the middle with the 8th toughest (and 8th easiest).

Again, back-to-backs are not accounted for. Now, to prove I have too much time on my hands:
Remaining back-to-backs (2nd game home, away)
GSW: 8 (3 home, 5 away)
LAC: 8 (3 home, 5 away)
NOK: 8 (2 home, 6 away)
MIN: 5 (1 home, 4 away)
DEN: 7 (1 home, 6 away)
SAC: 8 (1 home, 7 away)

Min has far away the easiest remaining schedule out of the 6 teams. The Warriors' 5 away back-to-backs sound like doomsday at first, but when compared to the other teams they don't look as bad (imagine if we had Sac's 7). Remember though that we still have tougher opponents than everyone except for Denver.

I just wanted to put this out there for you guys to discuss. Perhaps an impartial observor wouldn't pick the Warriors to emerge after looking at these figures, but I BELIEVE IN J RICH BABY.

More Hardware Coming!

by gsw4life on Feb 24, 2007 2:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Dude!

You rule. Overall, the results of your research seem more worrisome than encouraging -- but for some reason I'm still feeling guardedly optimistic. I think our depth, even without Baron, should help us weather those back-to-backs. By my count we still have seven solid-to-great players (Monta, JRich, MP3, Buki, SJax, Al, AB) and three so-so ones (Cabbages, Foyle, Powell) to absorb all the minutes. We'll have to play a lot of smallball, but then that's our thing.

And hey, if we fall short, we get a 2-5% shot at DurantOden... win/win!

by Sleepy Freud on Feb 24, 2007 3:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs