Scenario 8 seems most likely to me. Provided Dallas and Phoenix plays their starters. I don't think the Warriors are invincible to Dallas, and I'm not Homey enough to admit that they are an upper ech team that could easily squeak out a win on is even while playing on all cylinders.

scenario 2

i am hoping for scenario #1 because it would show that the warriors took the 8th spot, even after coach said they could not. this scenarios leaves no doubt for anyone, including the clippers, as to whether gsw deserves to be in the post-season this year.

i honestly believe the warriors will win out, even if nowitski comes back off the bench in the 4th quarter on tuesday, so if scenario #1 does not happen, i feel that #4 is second most likely to occur. however, phil, kobe and cast would hate a 1st round matchup against dallas; they prefer phoenix and the only teams the fakers have beat this month are seattle, who they beat for the second time yesterday, and sacramento.

does anyone honestly think coach johnson will play nowitski and howard 35+ minutes on tuesday while risking another loss to his mentor in meaningless game? coach johnson has already proven that he is a better coach than most in the league today and coach nelson has clearly shown that he did not teach avery everything he knows. why would avery risk all that against a team with nothing to lose?

tomorrow

http://mavs.beloblog.com/

See the part about AJ.

AJ thinks the Warriors will be their opponents.  While what's written is a little vague, it sounds like The Mavs "might" rest their starters or minimize their minutes.

AJ's not going to simply "let the Warriors win" but it sure sounds like AJ isn't going to kill his starters just to beat the Warriors.

What else do people read into the statements?

The Lakers aren't playing that well, and the Kings will want to resore some pride at home following the Warriors debacle.  I think the Kings will win that game, with the Warriors surviving thanks to the Suns.

avery's quote is very interesting. I read into like this:
No need to go out and show the W's how he would beat them (strategy wise) in the PO's. So, just take it easy...play loose and keep the strategy "hidden" until playoff time when it really matters. My take...he doesn't play his starters big minutes.

not sure if the fakers will beat the sactown kings

scenario #4
GS 2-0
LAC 2-0
LAL 0-1
     I expect this, and I also hope for it because it would allow GS to play phoenix instead of Dallas, giving GS a series I thihjnk they would have a better chance of winning.  I have great respect for phoenix this year, and for GS this year and for this reason I wouyld see a series between the two as a near tossup.  

    AT the time of GS mid-season trade I firmly believed this trade would help GS in the short term, but I hasd nio iddera it would help them this much. Since this trade GS has only been healthy since Late March, and GS has won 14 and lost only 5 since that time while playing the toughesty part of their schedule.  2 of their 5 lossess came against San Antoniio one at Utah, one at the Lakers, and one at Portland in a game GS clearly did jnot try to win in iorder to save their energy for the next evening when hey beat Dallas at home ending tghe Mavericks lo0ngest winning streak of the season (a 17 game streak)

     It is a recent phenomenon that NBA teams have been able to incorporate important new players as quickly and as effectively as GS has done this season.  The first time a team acquired an imprtant player in a mid-Season trade and won a championship in the same season was when the pistons did this with Rassheed Wallace in 2004.  The second time was the next dseason when San Antonion Obtained Naz Mohammed at the trading deadline with Mohammeed becoming the spurs 6th mosty important player in that yezrs playoff run.n (though Mohammed started for the spurs, Horry was more valuabkle to the spurs in that years playoffs.  The ability to incorporate new players more quickly into teams is a result of superior coaching and greater communication between coaches and general managers. As the salaries of coaches and managers have increased faster than the cost of living, so has the level of coaching, just as the level of play in sports has also risen with slaries.  This is sue primarily to greater competition both for coaching spots and playins spots.  There was a time when players from many nations did not dream of playing in the NBA, but thre money is so great that now everyone wants a piece of it.  Ours is the richest society in the hisory of ouyr world, and most iof us clearly have more money than we know what to do with, and a great deal o0f this money goes to sports.  We could try to save our souls by instead giving money we don't need to some of th many poor people in our world, bvut where's the fun in that.  esprcially when it's so easy to pretend that our souls are not in grsve danger, and to pretend ewe have not been told to give to all who ask of us and to ask for nothing in return.  

     I try to remember I have been told to give alms and by doing so make all things clean to me. and in order to do this, I try to spend no money on sports, but I still spend significant time amnd energy on sports becuase I often get bored and because most alternatives to sports are instances in which people disregard the command we have received not to resist evil by taking part in governments that encourage them to resist evil in many ways, (especially by encouraging them to take part in wars.)  

     One of the things I love to see in sports is candor because I often love to see the inner workings of people's minds without the obsfucation that usually keeps other people's thought's hidden.  When after GS fell to 26-34, Nelson said that he did not beli8eve GS would make this year's playoffs, He was not making things seem worse than thewy were for GS, but was instead sharing his honest thoughts,and history bears Nelson out.  Far fewer than 5% of all teasm who have fallen 8 games below 500 so late in a season hafve gone on to make the playoffs,  and in a year like this one in which it ws obvious that a team would have to come close to .5000 to make the western conference playoffs this percentage is even smaller (probably close to 1%).  So when Nelson told us He did not believe GS would make the playoffs He was probably actuslly telling us what he had already thought for a number of games.  The fact that GS probably will make the playoffs this yeafr is not a sign that Nelson was misleading us, but is instead a sign of how extrodinary the GS run since that point has been.  Nelson knew His team would soon be heal;thy for the first time since the trade and I'm sure he thought his team would then be a good one, but it did appear to everyone watching that GS had dug too deep a hole for even a good team to climb out of so late in a season, and for most good teams it would have been too deep a hole.  Nelson did not realize how good his team would be when healthy, and neither did the rest of us.  

When  teams have fallen

     While Nelson is as good a strategist (at least in short term situations) as any NBA coach, what Nelson gives to GS that most NBA coaches cannot give is the confidence he inspires in His players.  All five Goldden State starters are more confident in their team and in their coaxh than at any other time in their NBAS careers and this cohjnfidence is leading all of these players to play much better than they ever have before.  All five are highly emotional plasyers,  and NBA players on average are very emotional people to begin with.  This is why inspiring confidence is so important in the NBA.  Players must believe they can win befire they can win.  more than players thouygh, fans at NBA games attend those games primarily for the emotional highs they sometimes get from those games.  Emnotionalism is so dominant among fans that fans become delusional to the point of thinking that throwing objects at people will not start a fight.  I saw the detroit fight live, so I know that artest was no angel,but from the beginnijng I said thast any suspension of artest should bhe the same as it would be for firghtihng with another plasyer who had thrown something at him.  I knew it was wrong to crearte second-class citizens who fans could abuse because they had paid an exorbitant amount of money for their seats and for the right to take part in a dionysiuan ritual in which opposing players were the demons on which they beat,  and most other people in the United States also saw this before the NBA corrupted their minds.  I know this because later that evening I responded to espn polls on suspensions and saw that most other responddents proposed suspnsions that were almost reasohnable.  ESPN polls only reflected the NBA's credo of pay us enough money and we'll let you treat players like second-class citizens', after the NBA had corrupted our thinking and our enotions.  The fact that fans want to treart players like second class citizens to begion with is a sign of tghe evil in our society.  I swear that undder all circumstances (including NBA gamres) I will not start a fight in any way from throwing a punch ti thriwubg a drink.  Though the first drink thrown at Artest was nearly empty, Artest was correct to think that soon hard and dangeriuys things would be thrown at him as in fact many batteries soon were thrown at him.  His fighting did not help him, but wars do not help anyone who fights in them, and yet most of us sometimes say that we support wars.  Any person who even tries to be logical, and who  supports wars as we currently fight wars, should also support Artst's dcision to fight.  Anyone who will not swear not to start a fight as I have sworn above should not be allowed into any place that has civilized people in it or that might have civilized people in it (including NBA arenas).  Along with any suspensions Detroit should also have lost a number of important home games because the vast majority of Detroit fans present joined in throwing batteries at Indiana players, and some precaution should have been taken to prevent similar occurrences in the future, but the NBA is all about making short-term money so this never happened.

     If GS plays the Suns in RD. 1 I believe GSn has a 50-50 chance of winning this series.  If GS wins this series and then wins at least 2 games against the Spurs, first of all, GS will have completed a very good siason this year, in which they will have to be ranked somewhere between 3rd and 8th among all teams depending on how MIami, Detroit, Houston, Utah, Chicago, and Denver perform, and secondly they will have put themslves in a good position to possibly win a championship in the near future.  In spite of His regular season sucess, Nelson also stnds out as a coach who has never come close to winning a championship. It would be nice if He could change this.  In his best year with Dallas (2002-03), Dallas won 2 games against the eventual champion Spurs, but so did every team that played the spurs in the playoffs, (including the Suns with Stephon Marbury as their best player, The Nets with Kidd, and the Lakers with O'neral, and Bryant - a tean probably far superior to the Nowitzki/Nash Mavericks). What most people ignore about the maver4icks is that with Howard's and especdially Nowitzki's ability to create their own shots The Mavericks do not need a passer at the point nearly as much as they need a point gtuard who can get his own shot wihout having to be a threat to pass to open up lanes like Nash.  In this capacity Terry iu clearly far superior to Nash, and for this Reason the Mavericks are a much better team with Terry than with Nash.  Conversely Phoenix with it's great finishers in Stoudemire and Marions needs a passing point guard and for this reason Phoenix is a much better team with Nash than they would be with any other point guard. When the NBa made some sense the MVP award usually went to the best player on a championship team.  Clearly the MVP award should be gioven after a season ends but before the late 90s voters usually got aroumnd this difficulty by voting for the best player on the team that had won a championship the year before Now the MVP award has become such a joke that for the last two years it has gone to a player on a team that has not come close to winning a championship.  Just reflect for a moment on the fact that Shaq has only won one MVP award, and then ask yourself how often Shaq was actually the most valuable player in the league.  In His best season 2000-01 when Shaq led the leakers to a 15-1 playoff record, He did mnot win   the MVP award.  Nelson also twice took Milwaukee to conference finals but Milwaukee ws beaten Handily on both occassions.  More important, thougbh, is the positive effect Nealson has had on many people He has worked with.  When Nelson came to GS in 2006 He said He was coming to groom assistant coach Keith Smart to be a successful head coach as he had groomed Avery Johnson.  If Nelson could do this, this legacy would be far more imprtant than any championship.  And anyway Melson got five championships as a player (3 with Russell as teasm leader, 2 with Havlicek as team leader), so maybe He's already hit His limit.  

Telemach you wrote more words than I know.  Thats some sort of twisted compliment btw.