Greg Oden - Done for the Season - Golden State Of Mind

Greg Oden - Done for the Season

by Fantasy Junkie on Sep 13, 2007 4:56 PM PDT in News Comment 21 comments

Only one wil play this season

It's a sad day for not only Portland Trailblazer fans but for NBA fans. Greg Oden is officially done for the season and will have microfracture surgery on his knee. The #1 pick in the draft, the player the Trailblazers had pinned the future of their franchise on, will make his debut in 2008 rather than `07. I feel bad for the guys over at SB Nation site, Blazers Edge who have to endure it. Even one of my favorite sports writers, Bill Simmons, wrote on the topic, Blazers don't deserve Bowie 2.0.

I was genuinely excited to see the big man play and I don't even like big men unless their uniform says Warriors on the front. He was a freak (in a good way, not the Lil' Kim way). How many 19 year olds have the defensive skills and body type he does? None. He could have stepped right into that team and been in the running for All-Defensive team, while possibly leading the league in blocks. The guy is sick.

I enjoyed watching him in college and wanted to see how his skills would translate to the pro level. There will be no competition with Kevin Durant for the Rookie of the Year award. Some say it wasn't going to be a competition anyways, saying Durant would win it all regardless. I predicted Durant, but wanted Oden to make it interesting. Now, Belinelli has an even better chance to be the runner up. Or could it be Brandan Wright?

So what about the team? I thought they contend for a playoff spot given how well the team was playing at the end of the season. Throw in Oden to guard the paint and you have a greatly improved team. Replacing Oden and Zach Randolph with Channing Frye and Joel Pryzbilla to team up with LaMarcus Aldridge just isn't the same. I don't think they challenge for a spot, but will certainly be a tough team. If they're bad enough, they could earn another high draft pick and use that on one of the bright young stars coming out next year. This season won't be a waste for them as I expect Brandon Roy and Aldridge to step up their game. Those two are very gifted and will cause problems nightly. This year will be tough, but come the 2008-09 season, if Oden can make a full recovery and they pick up a lottery pick, that team will be stacked.

So this brings me to: would you trade for Oden? Given that he appears to be injury prone, does it make sense to offer Portland a fair trade? First, I don't think Portland will trade him since they will never get fair market value. Second, what is fair market value for him? Is Biedrins straight up for him enough? I'd say no. If I were Chris Mullin (I'd be a much better looking Chris Mullin mind you), I'd be willing to give up Biedrins and a future #1 for him (would Portland even do that?). The Warriors would not do well this year, but there's no guarantee they'll make the playoffs anyways with a current team that's even worse than last year. But in 2008-09, a frontline of Oden and Wright combined with Monta and Belinelli wouldn't be so bad. Anyways, food for thought.

It's a sad day for the NBA, but definitely benefits our Warriors. That's just one less team to challenge for a playoff spot and should make earning a win versus them a little easier.

How do you think this affects Portland and also the Warriors? Would you trade for him?

Also check out the diary, Breaking News: Oden injures knee (OUT FOR SEASON) for some more comments and discussion.

Oh man this is a weird Greg Oden song. "Take a look at Greg Oden..."

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Comments

Interesting

Oden's upside is certainly intriguing...but ultimately, I like Biedrins too much:

As far as I know, Biedrins has never missed a game due to injury. He played all 82 games. We've already gone through the growing pains (reducing foul rate) and he's learned "the system", a system which we'll likely maintain for the foreseeable future, Smart or Nellie.

Health and stage in the development curve are enough to convince me already, even if it means giving up some of Oden's size and upside.

To throw in an additional pick? Wow.

Yes, Biedrins will soon cost us alot of money, but it's money spent on equally valuable production. Oden would be cheap for 4 years, but one and a half years would be gone to injury; at least, at LEAST one more year to development. So again...I'd think about it, but pass in the end.

Here's a scary thought for the West:

Aldridge gets more minutes and touches and develops into a stud PF
Oden bounces back healthy in a year, pulling an "Amare" and losing little or nothing
Blazers totally suck and finish in the bottom 10 this year (highly likely)
Blazers win the lottery and score a top 3 pick
Blazers add freakin' Derrick Rose (they would never take OJ Mayo)
Blazers trot out this lineup in '08-09:

PG: Derrick Rose
SG: Brandon Roy
SF: trade Jack + extra picks for quality player
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
C: Greg Oden

Bye bye Western Conference

Questions? Complaints?

(AIM: JetForze; email: Jon.d.ma@gmail.com)

by OptionZero on Sep 13, 2007 5:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

They'll also

add Rudy Fernandez, who could play the sf with those two guys protecting the rim. He is about as good as it gets for a young swing player.

This could definitely be a blessing in disguise for the Blazers if Oden comes back strong after the surgery. It is also a question mark whether he'll ever comes back the same. There's quite a quandry going on in Portland right now.

by yehyeh82 on Sep 13, 2007 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

Biedrins I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) led the league in fouls last year, so he's not exactly free from the one minute man status. But you're right aside from some fatigue during this past season (probably from being the ONLY rebounder) he was arguably the healthiest Warrior.

I'd trade Biedrins for Oden (even with the injury history) in a heartbeat. Biedrins might be poor man's Ben Wallace with better hands and finishes someday- right now his rebounding, shotblocking, and defense isn't there ye. People say Oden will be Zo (in his prime) at the worst.

by Atma Brother ONE on Sep 13, 2007 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I have to agree. It's like comparing Shaq to not Shaq. It's like not taking a free brownie. It's like buying 1 hamburger for 50 cents when you could buy 2 hamburgers for 50 cents. Just do it, man!!!!

Tony.psd = Da Man

by Zorgon on Sep 13, 2007 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meh

You can have your free brownie. I wouldn't trade Biedrins for Oden.

First of all it would mean punting on this season, and possibly the season after that while Oden rounds into playing shape. I'm not much of a fan of three-year plans.

Second, as Bucher said on ESPN, Oden will now never be quite the player he could have been. Best case, he's 90% or so; worst case, Sam Bowie; likely in between. He may well just have a fast-aging body to match his fast-aging face. I'd say his upside at this point is Mourning or Mutombo. Given the trend of the league away from big galoots and towards speed speed and more speed (sorry Zorg) I'd stick with our guy. Heck, I might even rather have Brandan Wright...

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 13, 2007 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh-oh

Sleepy I've always respected your hoops insights, but man this line is going to come back to haunt you:

I wouldn't trade Biedrins for Oden.

Homerism at its worst.

by Atma Brother ONE on Sep 13, 2007 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Homerism? D'oh!

So you're saying you'd gladly go into next season, possibly Baron's last, with Kostacoast Perovic as our starting center? All for the possibility -- 40%? 60% -- that 2-3 years down the road Oden reaches his vast "upside"?

I dunno, apart from my homerish love of Biedrins (and the evidence from the summer league that his game is still improving) I'm just worried about Oden's career. I don't think enough is known about this microsurgery stuff. He could return to 90% or so, a la Amare ... or not. He's already had back issues, a broken hand, and now this. The hand thing is likely a fluke, but what if, as I suggested, he just has old man's bones to match his old man's visage? Then there are stories about one leg being longer than the other, and Sportsguy's comment that in person he "walked like Fred Sanford" (before your time, I know)...

I just think you're not weighing Oden's fragility heavily enough in your calculus. Sports history is littered with guys at least as acclaimed as Oden whose promising young careers have been laid low by injuries: Sam Bowie, Bo Jackson, Dajuan Wagner, Jay Williams, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood ...

I would trade Biedrins for Durant, but not for Oden. I guess we'll see in 5-6 years how homerish I'm being.

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 14, 2007 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

I'd take the gamble for Oden even though it does risk this season. Maybe Wright plus the trade exception in two separate deals could salvage this season for BD, Nellie, and the rest of the crew. I figure Oden is going to be just that good- maybe a once in a lifetime player. And I'm with you- I'd make the deal for Durant too.

I just don't see the Warriors contending for a championship (now that KG has left us) anytime soon let alone reaching the second round of the playoffs this year. Making a trade for a guy like Oden might be the only shot they have in the next 10 years.

by Atma Brother ONE on Sep 14, 2007 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you in theory

As you may have noticed, I've been one of the site's strongest proponents of the "sell the farm for a superstar" theory. I guess I just don't quite put Oden in that category. I thought he was borderline at the time of the draft -- really, he only looked like a superstar in two or three games all season (yeah, yeah, the broken hand). There were moments when his startling combo of size, speed and power reminded me of no one so much as Shaq; but I have to say I never really saw much of Shaq's fire. Now with the injury issues, I just think there are too many question marks to call him a future franchise player with any degree of confidence.

In the end it's not a huge knock on Oden ... there are really only a handful of guys I'd trade the whole kit and kaboodle (Wright/Biedrins/Monta/Beli) for:

Kobe
LeBron
Wade
Garnett
Duncan
Paul
Durant

....Um, I think that might be about it. That's all the guys I can imagine leading a bunch of decent-to-good players to a championship. Everyone else I can think have has some flaw in their game, temperament, or physical makeup that would give me pause.

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 14, 2007 2:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

GFIN

Yup I think we're both in the win now camp. I'm still willing to gamble that Oden's going to be a championship level superstar in the next 5-7 years, but I do understand the concerns with his injury history.

Nice list. Just curious who's the "Paul"? Chris Paul? Paul Pierce? You know I think I'd rather go with Deron Williams than Chris Paul- better shooter and more durable. I'd probably throw Allen Iverson, Gilbert Arenas (2 of my favs), and maybe even Carmelo and Bosh. TMac and Yao would be on my list if they weren't so unfortunately injury prone.

Also I think if the Suns came calling with Marion or Stoudemire I'd probably sell the farm- moreso for Amare.

by Atma Brother ONE on Sep 14, 2007 3:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Paul Shirley, of course ;-)

Nah, I meant CP3. Check out this cool comparison of young NBA PGs I saw on the Red Sox board:

Deron, as you say, is a slightly better outside shooter than Paul, but a worse inside shooter. More glaringly, check out the assists/bad pass ratio, hands rating, and rebound ratings: Paul is absolutely off the charts compared to all his "peers."

I like Deron a lot too, but he lacks Paul's freakish speed, playmaking skills and court vision. From what I've seen they both seem to have that leader/winner quality you look for in a franchise player. I'd take either of them over Arenas and AI, who, great as they are, seem highly unlikely to lead a team to the promised land (OK, Iverson did once, but in the leastern conference, with the type of hard-nosed defensive-minded supporting cast that can help you in).

Carmelo and Bosh I'd call borderline, for now ... but objectively, yes, I'd trade Biedrins for either.

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 14, 2007 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

NB--

I just noticed those numbers are for everyone's rookie campaign only. Deron obviously improved a lot from year one to year two. I'd love to see the same chart with career #s.

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 14, 2007 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Martell Webster

Foo'! Travis Outlaw. They're set at SF.

Tony.psd = Da Man

by Zorgon on Sep 13, 2007 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

best line of this diary

"Would you trade for him?"

BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH!!! typical warrior fan comment!

by pree t zinta on Sep 13, 2007 6:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

wow

i was looking forward to seeing him play against the warriors. Biedrins vs.Oden

by frankiescgswhoops on Sep 13, 2007 6:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ha i was just thinking

why doesnt he just play with one leg. he can do it. he freaking played all year with one hand, and it was his off hand! maybe he could dominate with some crutches. and he probably still block 3 a night.

What you thought that I only played basketball? I AM A Golden State WARRIOR!

by 24k state fan since 87 on Sep 13, 2007 7:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Trading for Oden

Man, it would take at least Biedrins + Monta + Belinelli. Let's not overvalue these guys. I don't think any of them will be superstars at the level of Oden. I bet you most Blazer fans wouldn't even make the Biedrins + Monta + Belinelli trade.

by Atma Brother ONE on Sep 13, 2007 9:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Injury concerns

None of those injuries concern you? If I were a Blazer fan, he's had two major injuries now in the span of under 2 years. There's still a ton of upside but you just never know.

If we still project Oden to be a franchise, game changing center then the offer wasn't enough. But Monta, Biedrins, and Belinelli? Hmmm. That's a lot but if I could guarantee Oden recovers 100% I'd do that.

Pre-injury, Oden had the potential to be one of the greatest centers of all time. If he worked hard on his offensive game, he'd be an All-Star center in 2 years. So, I'd have no problem giving up those 3 for a shot at a true superstar.

I just don't know what to expect from him now. People say his body is as old as he looks. Scary since my grandfather looks younger than him.

by Fantasy Junkie on Sep 13, 2007 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Concerned, but willing to take the gamble

I'm definitely concerned about Oden's injury history, but I think he's worth the gamble especially for Monta, Biedrins, and Belinelli. Amare is the closest case and he came back fine (although it took him a whole year).

Let's look at the proposed players:
Monta- Undersized shooting guard who hasn't really shown all that much court vision or ability to run the point.

Biedrins- It's impossible to project how good he'll be honestly with his bizarre and unorthodox style of play.

Belinelli- Let's say he's really as lights out of a shooter as his summer league play suggests and not as his shooting percentages from the Euro leagues last season suggest. He didn't show any ability to defend in the summer league. Right now I'd say it'd be nice if he turned out to be Wally Szerbiak in his prime (a Western Conference All Star SG) or even as prolific as Allan Houston, but neither of those guys are franchise cornerstones.

I'd trade these 3 in for a chance at something great.

by Atma Brother ONE on Sep 14, 2007 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is

truly pretty sad as an NBA fan, sucks for a young man with (supposedly) bright future. Let's hope he heals fast and gets back on the court (unless he's playing the Warriors).
No I wouldn't trade for him, yet, because he might be another injury prone big man.

by semarubaka on Sep 13, 2007 11:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think anyteam would want Oden

but Portland is not going to trade him, so there is no need for discussion.

I don't know what Sleepy is talking about, but Oden will become a franchise player and a Biendrins for Oden swap would be pretty even. Even if we traded Biedrins this season and have no center, I think the 7'4 wingspan of BWright could fit nicely into that position and we wouldnt be tanking the season.

But if we are gonna tank a season, we should tank to get OJ Mayo!