Overrated-Underrated? Andris Biedrins

by Fantasy Junkie on Sep 19, 2007 2:47 PM PDT in Hype Comment 27 comments

I heard Fitz and Brooks on KNBR about to do a segment on overrated or underrated. So I thought, why not bring that over to GSOM and see what the community thinks. We'll look at a particular topic and vote on whether that topic (player, team, etc) is overrated, underrated, or just right.

For this one, let's look at our starting center, Andris Biedrins.

Rating AB
Is he underrated? A lot of Warrior fans think he's going to be a future All-Star center. They point out that he's still so young and will have lots of time to continue to develop. From mid-season 2 years ago until now, he’s improved by leaps and bounds from where he was his first 1.5 years. He’s got great footwork and soft hands which helps explain why he’s one of the best on the pick and roll because he can move his feet well and find the open space to receive the ball. After he gets it, if he’s anywhere within a few feet from the bucket, he makes the shot which explains his high FG%. On defense, his quick feet and speed for a big man allow him to be a superior help defender.

Is he overrated? He’s got a lot of room to grow. Right now, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever be a guy who you can consistently give the ball to in the post to demand a double team. If he can get to the point where teams have to double team him, I’d consider him to be a potential All-Star. Fact is, he can’t create anything on his own. Sure there are times where they throw the ball into him on offense and he makes a nice post move to score, but it rarely happens. He doesn’t take anything outside of 3 feet. I don’t think he’s ever going to develop a nice jumper from about 7-8 feet. Either his arms, legs and body need to get in sync because they sure aren’t on his free throws or he needs to develop some touch. We’ve seen flashes of potential in touch, but not enough. Then you look at his defense. While he’s a great help side defender, he could use some improvement in his 1 on 1 defense. When he gets separation from the offensive player and can use his length, he does well. But when the offensive player can body him up and use his strength Andris struggles. I think if he adds some muscle, he can become a better defender.

Verdict
I struggled with this one, and I’ll probably get killed for this, but I’d have to say overrated. I’ve heard too much about him being a future All-Star and I just don’t see it. I think he’s going to be a nice player and is already a starting center but I don’t see him becoming an All-Star center, not with Yao and Amare in the way. He’s just not in their class. Heck, he’s ranked as the 17th best fantasy center. Not that it means anything.

The thing is, I love Andris. He’s worked hard and you can see his improvements. He works hard in the offseason to get stronger, faster, and become a better player. I’m looking forward to what he’s done this offseason to improve his game. I just don’t see him becoming an All-Star center or as untouchable as many make him out to be. He’s extremely valuable on the Warriors because he’s one of our only reliable and productive big men, but in the context of the entire NBA, there are plenty of big men I’d take over him.

I’ve been dead wrong about Andris before, so I hope I’m wrong again.

Overrated? Underrated? Just Right?

VOTE!

Poll

Andris Biedrins

Just Right?

213 votes

Underrated?

237 votes

Overrated?

69 votes

519 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 27 comments

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Comments

hes not overrated

but he could be either underated or just right

i think underated

Best seat in the House

by kaszowski on Sep 19, 2007 3:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

definitley not overrated. He has alot of potential, and it depends on who you ask. I'd say we all agree that league wide, he's underatted, but if someone outside our community would check out our thought(and faux trades) they think we were overrating him.

BUT...I vote underrated

by esco41510 on Sep 19, 2007 4:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think...

...the pertinent question is, underrated or overrated by whom?

By a faction of Ws fans who talk about him like he's the future of the franchise, I'd say Andris is overrated.

By reasonable GSOMers who see his up- and downsides and recognize him for what he is--a nice player with potential to develop but who will probably never be a star--he's rated 'just about right.'

And while I don't claim to have my finger on the pulse of the entire NBA fan base, I'd say he's probably underrated by some folks out there who just see him as a skinny Euro who can't shoot free throws.

by read2achieve on Sep 19, 2007 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Bingo

FJ, I'm disappointed: these "overrated/underrated" discussions are totally inane unless you define a clear "by whom."

read2achieve nailed it: the only place he may be overrated is the world of Warriors fanboys (of which this site is the capital). The casual hoops fan hasn't even heard of him, so it would be tough to overrate him.

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 19, 2007 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Allright allright

Sorry to disappoint Sleep.

The question is this, do we as Warriors fans overrate him? What do we overrate or underrate about him?

Do people in the greater NBA hoop-sphere underrate or overrate him?

It's impossible to nail down a simple overrate/underrate and by whom because there are multiple perspectives. But what is your gut feeling about it?

It's not to be taken too seriously, but more just to see what the general feeling about him is.

by Fantasy Junkie on Sep 19, 2007 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry for the tone

I just have a pet peeve about the overrated/underrated thing.

It's pretty interesting, if difficult, to try to project what kind of NBA player the 21-yo AB might become. What's not interesting (to me) is to try to divine how that projection compares to some vaguely-defined public consensus.

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 19, 2007 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A better question

Might be "is he overrated by the Warriors' brass?"

That we can judge, since the next few weeks or so they'll likely attach a $$$ figure to their rating of him.

Is 5 years/$50-60M overrating him? In this market, I'd say definitely not. Dollars aside, I'd much rather have Biedrins than Rashard "$21M per annum" Lewis.

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 19, 2007 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I

think Andris could be someone who commands a double team. He needs to bulk up some more, and also develop some more post moves. But the guy is ridiculously athletic, and runs circles around most centers in the league. Not to mention he grabs everything around the league. I think the sky's the limit with this kid.

Nellieball

by tadams1080 on Sep 19, 2007 4:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I think you mean "he grabs everything around the basket" -- and he does. He plays about as well above the basket as anyone I've seen since Walton (who might have been the best all time -- and they share a talent for the quick outlet pass). But the key is whether he bulks up so that he can bang in there with the big guys. I suspect he will, since I'm not sure he's even 22 yet. We'll see. If he does, there's going to be a lot of excitement for us around the rim when Wright gets his NBA legs, because they both play fast, long and high; we're gonna see some terrific tips between those two a few years down the line

At the same time, all of FJ's criticisms are valid, and AB's got a long ways to go.

But the bottom line for me is simple. If you were to pick one Warrior to build a team around, who other than AB? BD's too risky; as great as he's been, he's old for his age, injury prone and has very thin wheels. Monta's terrific fun, but recall how he played in the playoffs -- when everything was on the line. He's so young and inexperienced, it'll still be a while before we see what he will really be. Jax? No, he's got immense talents, great savvy and wonderful hands -- but he's still Jax, and that's a two-edged coin, at best. Al? Hardly. Wright? He's AB light right now. No, AB's the future here -- and that's all right with me, because he's arcing better all the time.

by johnl on Sep 19, 2007 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think hes just right

Hes pretty damn promising at his young age, and really is(was?) our only interior defender last year that could protect the basket.

hes super young, super rebounder, offense doesnt look great but with his length and possibly more strength he can be a great defender.

all star, i dont know, but the guy is a star

by jrizzle on Sep 19, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Underrated

If you look at the way he plays defense on replays, I'd say he gets the most phantom calls from the refs. From that lack of respect he receives from the refs, Biedrins is underrated.

by onetwocross on Sep 19, 2007 5:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

just right

I think Andris has skills that are so unique for a big man in this league (tremendous quickness to the ball and fantastic hands). While he's not and may never be a go to guy on offense, I don't think he needs to be one in order to continue to help the Warriors or to be an All-Star big man. There are other All-Star big men who aren't their team's go to guys in the post either (and who have mediocre perimeter games). Kenyon Martin and Dwight Howard just to name a few. (I'm not saying Andris will ever be the caliber these players are; just that they aren't their team's main go to guy in the post but were/are still All-Stars.) Is Andris overrated? Only time will tell. But I'd say it's pretty exciting just to speculate on Andris' future greatness (or not) based on the tremendous play we see thus far out of a 21 year old.

by sleepys29againstshowtime on Sep 19, 2007 5:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dwight Howard

is MOST CERTAINLY his team's go-to post guy (he could even be the best center in the league one day)...give me what you're smoking because it sure as hell isn't Tony Battie or Adonal Foyle.

by sadleavy on Sep 19, 2007 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay, Dwight Howard IS the go-to guy. . .

I mispoke. But I suppose the point I was trying to make was that Dwight Howard's low post game is still unrefined and underdeveloped, just like AB's, but yet he is still an impact player, just like AB to a lesser degree. True Dwight Howard is built like a freak of nature while AB is built like, well, me except a foot taller. But at this point of his career, Dwight Howard scores a lot of his points via cleaning up on the boards and getting set up by his teammates versus scoring his points via individual post up moves (just like AB, though Howard's post up game is obviously better than AB's currently.) And yes, I agree that Dwight Howard will eventually be the best center in the NBA for many years to come.

by sleepys29againstshowtime on Sep 20, 2007 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

then we agree! : - )

and i will also add that kenyon martin (pre-injury problems) was an athletic freeeeak! (wasn't he like #1 or 2 in a weak draft?) biedrins has great hands for a big man and good instincts but i wouldn't put him on the "potential" level of a kenyon martin or dwight howard (both players who are/were max deal players). still gotta love beans tho!

by sadleavy on Sep 20, 2007 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's got competition

Amare
Yao
Oden
Possibly Okafor, Biedrins, Bynum, Chandler...

He's probably the most imposing of all these guys physically, but he's really going to have to refine his game to stand out from his contemporaries -- let alone to be mentioned with the Shaqs and Hakeems of the world. For whatever reason he seemed to regress at the end of last year. Personally, I think he'll fall short of the "all-time great" group. He'll never have the skills and polish of Hakeem, Duncan, Kareem, or Robinson; and as beastly as he is physically, he's still no Shaq. I'd guess when he hangs it up we'll think of him in the same thought bubble as guys like Mourning, Parish, and Walton. Not bad company, but second or third tier in the Big Man Canon.

by Sleepy Freud on Sep 20, 2007 2:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

b-drains

is underrated just like everyone on the warriors is ya his free throws suck but he can work on that and when he bulks up he'll be a much bigger threat in the paint

by gswLLBatman on Sep 19, 2007 6:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Andris

People overrate him about being a future all-star, but he is very underrated on the court. Biedrins does all the Warriors dirty work, he is our only consistent rebounder, our only shot blocker and he has extremely good hands under the basket.

I voted underrated because I believe most people don't appreciate what Andris brings to the Warriors.

P-40

by P40 on Sep 19, 2007 7:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Depends

on if we see that 7 foot jumper that appeared from thin air in eurobasket, and if it falls.

This offseason I would say GSoM nation overvalued Andris a bit. While his quickness and hands are very good, he still disappears at times and relies on our excellent guard play to boost his O.

Not that I would expect more from a 21 year old, but people assume he's going to bulk up, improve shooting, and develop his post moves significantly. Quite frankly we don't know what's going to happen.

I love the kid and watch and rewatch his eurobasket highlights way too often, so I'm definitely guilty of expecting too much as well. Hopefully he's around long enough for us to witness first-hand how he develops...

by BingBluNT on Sep 19, 2007 7:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Truth Hurts...

I think that many of the GSoMers here are a little too hopeful. I mean its great that we believe so much in the players we have, but you have to understand that Biedrins is a player who is good pending on what system he is operating in. I doubt he would playing as well as he is if he were on another team. No other team has as many shooter as we do so that makes the changes the defensive attention to our guards and that often leave the center open for Biedrins throwing one-on-ones and mismatches at him.

A great player, yes, but an all-star I say no. You're comparing him with the best of the best and for us to think that he's within that range is a little bit of a stretch.

I am as powerful as 100 times 100 times 100 times 13 Stilts!

by jeppalepala on Sep 19, 2007 8:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

hes great

he should score more..he has all the potential in the world to score

by djchuckdeez on Sep 19, 2007 9:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Biedrins does not disappear

He is always very active and is already an All Star caliber defender and rebounder. He did not have a lot of help in the post and he developed a special ability to tip and control rebound opportunities around the rim. I am having trouble thinking of anyone in the West save Duncan and Camby that can defend the post better.

Why did Harrington start over AB down the stretch? Nelson clearly prefers his 5 to draw his defender to the perimeter. The Croshere and Perovic signings amplify how important this is to Nellie. AB has the ability to add offensive range to his game. I don't think he needs to really add "the ability to create your own shot" in order to be deemed an All Star Western center. I mean Brad Miller for Christ.

by eshock on Sep 19, 2007 10:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No disagreement

from here with that analysis.

Teams make about half of their fieldgoals, and obviously a decent number of shots that are made come from inside the paint and even near the restricted area, so a center doesn't need to create his own offense to influence the game.

Having said that, Biedrins' rebounding and defense stood out in a large way on some nights & not so much on others. I expect him to become more consistent and play a big role in setting the pace of games as he gains experience, but the fact is he's not really close to all-star level right now, and there's no reason to think he'll become one for at least a few years.

However, as long as he has guys like Baron, Monta, and even Jackson drawing the opposing center's attention for a second, and that's all Biedrins needs to get open, he's going to put up good numbers in addition to wreaking havoc in the middle. Too bad he's literally all-alone down there, although that's what Wright, Lasme, Croshere, & Kosta were brought in for I suppose.

Not to merge this thread with another, but Biedrins' ability to "play with" play-makers could be his best attribute and a good enough reason to keep Monta in the bay, even if sending him out would address the bigman problem mentioned above.

by BingBluNT on Sep 20, 2007 12:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Starting vs. PT.

Starting the game doesn't necessarily mean you're more valuable to the team. It's true that Harrington got into the starting rotation at the end, but Harrington's playing time actually went down during this stretch as well, as did Andris's. It wasn't so much that he wanted a center to draw people away from the basket as that he ran out 4 guard lineups. My guess is that Harrington in the starting lineup was more sending notice to the opposition that the Warriors were going to go small in a major way, not even pretending to be a conventional lineup. It seemed to work in that it instilled panic in many teams.

by jae on Sep 20, 2007 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

just think about it this way

even when AB's offense wasn't falling, was he still productive on the court? Most times i'd say yes through his hustle, defense and rebounding. AB did a lot of things that don't get categorized in the stat sheet.

And i think a lot of overrated/underrated depends on the contract situation of the player. Right now, AB is vastly underrated, but who knows if he has a $10+ million contract and still hasn't any clue on post moves. then its a different story. Give him a couple more years and then lets re-assess his over/underrated-ness.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Sep 20, 2007 3:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

2006 Summer League was the turning point

when he actually lived up to the "1 Minute Man Hype" http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/story/2006/7/10/203913/516

After that he blew up, to the extent his "fouliness" allowed him. I always liked his length, hands and reflexes which allowed him to get rebounds others could not, even if it took a couple of tips.

Do I overrate him? I think I rate him right on par with where he is (to think otherwise would be a logical paradox). He rebounds well, has great hands, can block shots but is way too prone to getting into foul trouble by going after too many shots and/or getting a phantom call. I like how he can get out on the perimeter and defend but I am not too impressed with his low-post defense (mostly because of the fouls). Mostly, I like how he stays within himself and doesn't try and take jump shots or behind-the-back passes.

Do the Warriors Overrate him? I honestly don't know. This has been off-season anxiety issue #1 for me. I think they should try and extend him at $8 mil per (yah, I know you think that's way too low) if they can, if not then wait him out until restricted free agency and see what the market holds. Send out signals that the W's will match anything even though they'll really only go to $10-$11 mil.

Regardless, I love the consistency of his patented "C'mon man!", every time he gets whistled for a ticky-tack foul. You just can't teach that.