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2k7-2k8 Warriors Midterm Report Cards... Featuring Hotspots!

We're at about the midpoint of the Warriors 2007-2008 season. The good news is that if the regular season ended today the Warriors would be playoff bound for the second year in a row and are only 5.5 games out of the prestigious #1 seed in the mighty Western Conference. The bad news is that they are clinging to only a 0.5 game lead over the Utah Jazz for the right to not count ping pong balls in May.

At last season's midpoint Fantasy Junkie hit you with a fun auto-centric midterm report card. Since it's beyond frigid right now in this brutal Bay Area winter I thought I'd bring the heat for you all in this year's Warriors 2k7-2k8 Midterm Report Cards using the NBA Hotspots feature on NBA.com. Hotspots is presented by NBA Live 08 from the same people who brought you those nice outdoor hoops courts in Redwood City, EA Sports. I'm a big fan of information visualization and thought it'd be cool to go Edward Tufte on you in this piece.

Make the jump to see what's IN THE GAME!

Star-divide

Kelenna Azubuike: B

You can't help but root for a guy that worked his way from the NBDL to the pro's. Kaz is a solid option off the bench for the Nellie. He can shoot the three-ball and rebound at a very nice rate. His highlight blocks make you jump out of your seat, but his D just isn't there yet. You have to wonder if he has the speed, handles, court vision, and defensive ability to be much more than a steady option off the bench given his age (24). How much better will he get? The second half of this season should tell us a lot.

A somewhat depressing trend is that his numbers have been declining pretty much all across the board since his early brilliance.

  • November- 31:36 min, 13.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.6 apg : 1.1 to, 0.7 stl
  • December- 22:41 min, 8.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg : 0.9 to, 0.5 stl
  • January (through 1/21)- 15.05 min, 6.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.6 apg : 0.5 to, 0.8 stl


The left side is the best side!


Matt Barnes: C

Barnes has really rebounded strong the past several games from some expected early season struggles. I'm fully willing to throw out his first half and look towards what should be a much, much better second half of the season for him. He's the Warriors X-factor and the better he plays the better this team is and the further they go in the uber-loaded West. Our prayers are with him and his family.


Just wait till the end of the season.


Marco Belinelli: F

Belinelli's shot release sure does look pretty, but the results aren't pretty one bit. He's the shooter who can't shoot. Who would've thought that with all the off season hype coming from Nellie and the Warriors organization (they couldn't wait to start printing and selling his #18 jersey and in a season ticket holder event they were saying something to the effect of "you'll be amazed"), this "sharpshooter" would be clanking 68.6% from the field and bricking 71.4 of his 3's? If Belinelli's not scoring and knocking down his shots, I can't really blame Nellie for asking him to go down the DLeague. His passing, rebounding, and defense have a long ways to go if he's going to make it in this league.

It's way too early to close the book on his tenure with the Warriors or his NBA career, but right now it ain't looking good. That's really too bad too. Warriors Nation really wanted to play Marco Polo!

John Hollinger from ESPN.com took a lot of criticism for a lot of Warriors fans for his comments before the season about Belinelli:

2007-08 outlook: A sweet-shooting guard from Italy who was the Warriors' first-round pick, Belinelli made waves with a big performance in the Warriors' summer league and generated high hopes that he can take Jason Richardson's spot in the backcourt.

Golden State fans are in for a crushing disappointment. Belinelli's translated European stats are extremely poor, and the track record of those numbers has been extremely reliable the past few years. They suggest he'll make some shots from the perimeter, just as he did in summer league, but struggle off the dribble and contribute absolutely nada to the rest of the box score.

Hollinger's right on the money so far.


Burr thats cold!


Andris Biedrins: B

Biedrins has solidified his spot as one of the best finishers near the rim in the league. His handles were virtually nonexistent last season, but they've improved by leaps and bounds this season. Watch him grab the rebound and push the ball upcourt with few dribbles up to get Warrior Tempo started. He's not going to take anyone off the dribble and if he does it with a pesky guard within close proximity it's going to get picked, but you have to appreciate that improvement. Biedrins doesn't get much help on the boards and on D in the paint from the other Warrior forwards, centers, and even Nellie's decision making, but he never complains.

Sadly he has yet to improve in the other areas he needs to work on if he's going to be a prime time player that the Warriors should devote a huge chunk of their payroll to. His man to man defense especially near the bucket has regressed and his weakside D and shot blocking just aren't where they were last season. He was billed as a defensive player, but he's morphed into a below average to poor defender and an excellent scoring option for lay-ins, dunks, and rolls/ cuts down the lane. It's funny how things play out, but he has half a season still left to make some big leaps in his game that we'd all like him to make. As of right now his production isn't that different than last season. If the Warriors are going to solidify their playoff spot and improve on last year, he's going to need to step up because the Warriors don't really have any other option (at least that's what Nellie seems to think).

  • 2006-2007- 29:00 minutes, 9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.1 apg : 1.5 to, 1.7 blocks, 0.8 steals
  • 2007-2008- 27:36 minutes, 10.2 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.2 apg : 1.3 to, 1.2 blocks, 0.8 steals

That big jump in production that I'm sure he and his agent were banking on when they were talking extension this past offseason unfortunately hasn't happened yet.

Biedrins could really improve his game by leaps and bounds by working on his shot technique. If you look at his shooting form on free throws and short hook shots, he oddly uses the bottom of his palm and upper wrist to try to will the ball into the basketball, instead of letting the ball roll off his fingers. I'm not sure where he picked up this unorthodox technique, but it seems like it really makes the game harder for him unnecessarily. He's got great, soft hands so I'm not not sure why he's held so steadfast to this odd method.


Can you say 1 dimensional?


Austin Croshere: B

When the Warriors signed Croshere in the offseason I had no idea what they were thinking. He had virtually no upside, peaked at being an average NBA player back at the turn of the century, and was coming from the upset-ed Dallas Mavericks. I still question the signing given all his injury woes, but he's proven to be solid player off Nellie's rarely used bench. Sure there's nothing the least bit exciting about his D and he's unlikely to be on this roster next season (if he even makes it that far), but he's provided some good stretches off the bench. Way more than you could ever expect or hope from him. At this point in his NBA career, he's not a very good NBA player, but Nellie's found a way to use him for some good minutes off the bench. Nothing spectacular, just solid.


"Austin Croshere can get scary hot!" -- Fitz
(RECAP: Warriors 120, Bucks 90 - Scary Hot)


Baron Davis: A

Can you really ask all that much more from Baron Davis this season? Yes, it would be nice if he didn't have those offnights (ahem, ahem, ahem, ahem, ahem, ahem...), but the man is putting together a fantastic season. The Warriors have asked him to lead them in scoring (22.2 ppg), run their offense 8.1 apg), help alleviate their poor rebounding (4.7 rpg), and create turnovers on D (2.4 steals) all while playing nearly 40 minutes every night. They're also asking him to do this without his other half of the high flying BoomRich backcourt and no replacement that lightens his scoring or rebounding load one bit this season. That's a lot to ask for and for the most part BD has stepped up big time.

His D just wasn't there during that pitiful 0-6 opening to the season, but Baron's been playing tough defense with a few offnights here and there with Nellie asking him to guard the likes of some big name Western Conference guards. He's overworked, but that rarely stops him from trying on D and pulling some random clutch shots pretty much out of nowhere (just ask the Lakers). Take away Baron and this team is arguably worse than the Sacramento Kings.

The best stat about Boom Dizzle this season so far: 0 games missed
(I hope I didn't just jinx that!)


If only they highlighted all the crazy clutch shots he took and made!


Monta Ellis: B+

Monta really struggled in the early going of this season and it looked like he was in danger of losing his starting spot to Kaz for the rest of the season and beyond. It made you wonder if he was in the Warriors' longterm plans. However, just like last year when everyone was talking about Dajuan Wagner and forgetting about him, Monta didn't care what "They Said..." and picked up his game big time. He's become the league's best 1 man fast break and has developed a pretty reliable mid-range J off the dribble, which is somewhat of a lost art in the NBA. Monta's also stepped up his glass work a bit and the results were on display recently against the Bulls (7), Pacers (8), Spurs (9), Magic (12), and Rockets (9).

The funny thing is if you look at his numbers, they really aren't that much different than last year's MIP breakout campaign. He's definitely cut down on the turnovers (especially those painful unforced ones from lazy passes and lack of focus), but his 3pt shot is shakier than ever (I read somwhere that Nellie likes 3's, so it's important to get those from his starting 2-guard).

  • 2006-2007- 34:17 minutes, 16.5 ppg (47.5% FG and 27.3% 3pt), 4.1 apg : 2.9 to, 3.2 rpg, 1.7 steals
  • 2007-2008- 35:30 minutes, 17.1 ppg (50.4% FG and 21.2% 3pt), 3.3 apg : 1.8 to, 4.1 rpg, 1.3 steals

Also his D seems to have fallen off quite a bit from last season. He doesn't seem as hungry in the passing lanes or pressuring the ball. It speaks volumes about Nellie's view of Monta's defense that he never has him guarding the other up and coming PG's in the West like Deron Williams or Chris Paul or even the legendary Allen Iverson. If Monta is going to be a formidable tag team partner for BD who the Warriors are so dependent on, he's got to help Boom out matching up with these types of PG's.

The key questions for the remainder of this season that will answer a lot of questions this offseason when the Warriors and Monta's camp are working out a probable extension:

  • Has he leveled off?
  • Will he ever be more than an undersized shooting guard?
  • Can he become a better offensive facilitator?
  • Can he become a reliable or hopefully dominant scoring option in half court sets?
  • How much of a liability will he be on the defensive end if he's going to be a fixture at the 2-guard spot?
  • Can he play big when other teams negate his speed and quickness with equally fast players or better transition D?
  • And most importantly- will his post game interviews always be so awkward? (Seriously, this one bugs me the most by far!)


This is what the Hotspots look like for a 1 man fast break.


Al Harrington: C

Al's really struggling this season and it's anyone's guess how many minutes Nellie will give him each night. He scoring, rebounding, and assists are all down. I love this guy's defense against bigger players in the post (he does a superb job of fronting his man and denying the entry pass when called upon) and his positive, fun demeanor. If Al could jump just 2-4 inches higher, he'd be a much better finisher and rebounder. Until that happens, he's just going to be mediocre overall player who can hit the trey at an exceptional rate. Throw on the jump shoes Al!


Oddly enough his hotspots chart would lead you to believe he's a good finisher inside. Unfortunately, that's just not true.


Troy Hudson: F

T-Hud's been injured pretty much since day 1, but that doesn't mean this was a curious offseason signing to begin with. Props to the man for having a long and solid NBA career.


Is it over folks?


Stephen Jackson: B+

You can easily find fault with his shot selection, turnover, and Coit Tower high dribbling, but don't forget that Jackson's giving the Warriors all he's got and then some. Jack's had to play above his level this season because he's been forced to pick up the slack offensively for Jason Richardson. Expecting him to continue to shut down the team's best defender and put up 20 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and 4.2 apg is just asking too much. If he keeps it up for the remainder of the season playing nearly 40 minutes nightly without major fatigue or nagging injuries I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Life without Jack on this team isn't fun. It's 1-6 depressing. The moral of the story is appreciate what he's giving us. Take the good with the bad. The J-Rich trade created a situation where the Warriors are living and dying by a guy who's shooting 39.8% from the field and 32.4% from downtown. Unless they lighten his load, I don't expect Stack Jack's shooting percentages to get that much better. The Warriors have asked him to be something that he's not- a second offensive option on a playoff team in the West.


That's a LOT of 3's.


Stephane Lasme: F

Wow that was quick. The Warriors cut Lasme before you could even say Chris Taft.


Sorry I just found this amusing.


Patrick O'Bryant: D-

When the Warriors drafted him both he and the organization said he was a project. So why didn't they pick up his option this past summer if it was well understood and agreed upon that it was going to take him a few seasons to become a player for the Dubs? As expected midway through his second season in the association he's still a... project.

Aside from the awful foul rate, I like what I've seen from him those few times he's gotten to play this season. Much better than last season when looked like he really didn't care. Still at this point in his career he has to step up especially when the Warriors have glaring holes offensively and defensively in the low post. Opportunity knocks, but can he carpe diem?


It's like POB's playing NBA Jam- "HE'S ON FIIIRE!"


Kosta Perovic: F

This very well could be a completely different grade when it's all said and done for the Warriors 2k7-2k8 season, but for now paying a guy part of the midlevel exception to play in the DLeague when Nellie and the gang need help now is absolutely ridiculous.


Whoever thought a zero threat position could make you perfect from the field?


Mickael Pietrus: D

MP2's suffered through some very difficult health issues- a tough shot to the nose and the flu- and Nellie has cut back on his minutes and opportunities big time, so I can't blame him too much. But you'd really hope that a former lottery pick in his 5th season would be a better all around player offensively (he seems to only make the flashy pass that gets him on the highlight reel) and not have so many moments that make your hair fall out (back to back turnovers from stepping out of bounds? Ouch!).

It's only a question of when his tenure with the Dubs is over. I think I've typed this a million times now, but I'm really going to miss his goofiness. The guy's a character!


Maybe we should rename Air France to Jet Blue.


CJ Watson: B

I'd give this guy an A+ alone for the great nicknames he's provided us already. He's not the pass first backup PG the Warriors desperately need and he hasn't shown any indication of being a shut down defender against other PGs, but I've liked what I've seen through his 7 games with the Warriors so far to hang on to him for the rest of the season. CJ is fast enough and athletic enough to play Warrior Tempo. 10.29 KBLX is in heavy rotation!


Smoove R and Beeee!


Brandan Wright: D

He seems like a really good kid and I feel bad because he seems a little depressed. Wright's rookie season hasn't exactly gotten off to a great start. It's a pretty big red flag that Nellie doesn't trust Wright enough to play him when the front court could use a ton of help and the bench is so thin. Other rookie forwards/ centers like Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Yi Jianlian, Jamario Moon (although it should be noted he's a 27 year old rookie, so it's a misnomer), Luis Scola (27-ditto), Sean Williams, Joakim Noah, Jeff Green, Glen Davis, Al Thornton, Thaddeus Young, Corey Brewer, Jason Smith, and a few others rank higher than him on David Thorpe's 2007-2008 Rookie Class rankings [ESPN] which makes you wonder if the Warriors took the wrong guy with the BETcats #8 overall pick.

To tell you truth I'm terrified this pick is going to come back to haunt the Warriors for quiet some time a la Joe Smith. Wright's frame and physique is a huge hindrance down low both offensively and defensively against NBA 4's and 5's and right now he doesn't have the range, handles, or speed to be a perimeter player. He runs funnier than CWebb ever did when Nellie was cracking jokes at his expense during his rookie season with the Dubs. I hope I'm wrong here. God I hope I'm wrong.


He's got a ways to go, but he's still very young and learning.


Don Nelson: A

Nellie definitely has to find a way to use his bench more or force Mullin's hand into getting him some players he feels comfortable playing, but if someone told me the Warriors would be 7 games over .500 at this point in the season back in November I'd think they had been sipping a little too many post-game frosty beverages with Nellie. Is there any other coach in the league that could be forced to use Stephen Jackson as their 2nd offensive option and get this far? Is there any other coach in the league that could get this far without a single traditional dependable low post scorer in half court sets? You can't help but appreciate what could sadly be a hoops coaching legend's final tour of duty. Fight the power Nellie... Fight the power.


What are your midterm grades for the Warriors?
No cop out Incompletes either!


Also flip back through the archives for all the past GSoM Report Cards. It's always fun to see how players have progressed, regressed, or stayed the same.

0 recs | Comment 32 comments

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Why live life per-game?
The only thing that went down is Azubuike's minutes. His per-minute production has remained pretty steady.

That he gets PT in the 4th quarter under Don Nelson should tell you pretty much all you need to know.

SB Nation Quality Control

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Jan 23, 2008 4:51 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Baron an A? Harrington C?
While I know he is our unnerving leader, his shot selection in some games is just very, very questionable especially when we should be driving. And when he has bad games (1 or 2 this season), he has BAD games.

Maybe an A-?

Also, on Al Harrington, if you look at his season stats, they aren't what we would've liked them to be, but in the games, when he has his shot on, he can single handedly bring us back into games. Just for that, I'd put him in the B range.

Overall, very solid though.

by jtoj on Jan 23, 2008 4:52 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Monta's hotspots look like Baron's...
Monta should have a higher shooting percentage w/in the 3pt line.  
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

by mightymadskillz on Jan 23, 2008 4:56 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

adsf
lol ya they posted the same shot chart

by BD4mvp on Jan 23, 2008 5:09 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh yeah
Hey Atma, is that Baron's or Monta's hot spot chart? They're identical, including the numbers.
Go Warriors!!!

by goGSW24 on Jan 23, 2008 5:50 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BD and Monta's Shot Charts
Thanks for catching that guys. I updated it.

Let me know if anything else looks funny to you guys about those hotspots charts. All these red-blue-gray shading is messing with vision!

by Atma Brother ONE on Jan 23, 2008 5:53 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, me too...
And that's one of the problems with those charts, from a design perspective. I'm a big fan of Tufte, too, and he talks a lot about "smallest perceivable difference" -- as an information designer, avoiding distractingly violent color contrasts like the ones in those charts. It's especially annoying given that all it takes to flip from red to blue in some of these cases is a single made (or missed) shot.

Of course, a far bigger problem is that the essential part of the information -- where these players take most of their shots from -- is obscured by the distracting visuals. You have to squint amid the riot of color to see the actual numbers that constitute the meat of the information.

Classic example of what Tufte calls "chartjunk." As is so often the case with poor information graphics, the data presented would be a much clearer and quicker read as a simple excel spreadsheet of numbers.

Still, big props for dropping Tufte's name in the discussion. He's a total crank, but he's one of my design idols. If you could ever get an interview with him on GSoM, my yin and my yang would be in total harmony...

by Sleepy Freud on Jan 23, 2008 8:54 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

solid
propers on the charts too...very nice visual to put some #s into context.

an F seems harsh for belinelli at this point..the only time dude has gotten any burn has been in garbage time.  he strikes me as the type that would need heavy/considerable min to get in the flow of the game...and would probably benefit from playing with the first string as opposed to 2nd rate scrubs..

by JudBooshlur on Jan 23, 2008 7:57 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How about N/A
for not applicable for the rooks.  How can you grade dudes who have had no real chance to play?  That doesn't seem fair and makes no sense.

Outside of that, I think the grades and graphics are really good.  Great job.

You call me ancient, I say "oldguysrule"

by commish on Jan 23, 2008 8:48 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kosta
Agreed.  I doubt Perovic will turn out to be much, but I don't see how he can get a failing grade when he's never played.  That's not quite true.  He has played a whopping 7 minutes, and did just fine in those minutes. Hell, he's never missed a shot!

I realize that the GSoM report cards have traditionally been popularity contests, and I'll continue to regard them as such, but seriously, there's nothing wrong with assigning an incomplete when you have nothing to base a grade on.

by jae on Jan 23, 2008 9:50 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And BW?
Nice work overall, Atma, but I, too, don't get the "rookie" scoring (or how a guy like Croshere, who's always injured, can cop a B).  

I really think you're missing the boat on BW -- tho you certainly have a lot of company there.  If Nellie would just play him 10 minutes a game -- which, given recent results, he easily can -- I think we'd all see immense growth within a month.  (I sense Mully fees the same way, but is leaving the playing time decisions to his boss, Nellie.)  At any rate, how can you grade a guy a D when his coach won't play him because he's too (young, light, inexperienced. . .you fill in the "reason" or -- in my mind -- the excuse.)

Finally, tho you're starting to come around a bit, you're still missing the boat big-time on AB.  He IS a very good defensive player: his two problems are that (1) he's always on the biggest, strongest defender -- as is to be expected -- but (2) he's almost always ALONE down low -- while four "Nellie slashers" release early for his terrific outlet passes.  (Who, besides Duncan -- maybe -- is faster with the outlet?)  He tries to play man, but is often forced to play zone by virtue of being the only non-perimeter defender against 3-4 opponents.  (Am I the only guy who finds it strange to see him alone down there so much?)   Plus, he's smart and ALWAYS in position on defense, often moving "lost" teammates (Hello, MP; Howdy, Matt; What say, Monta?) around to get them better placed.  In fact, I think we'll see him "captaining" the D next year because his court vision and positioning are so good and he appears to get along so well with his mates.

On offense, at 21 he's still definitely a work in progress -- at least until he gets an 8-10 foot shot going -- but he's surely the best we've seen around here down low since the CWebb days.  He's great above the rim (I really long to see BW and AB on the floor together around the hole), his soft hands have been back for over a month now, and -- especially with Jack, tho more now with BD -- he's still running a great PnR, even tho everyone knows it's coming.

And, despite that weird 6 foul/21 minute game, it seems the refs are cutting him much more slack now than last year.  Which means he's getting their respect.  Plus, his FT shooting has really jumped.

I just love the kid.  And while I'm not criticizing the B grade (tho there's no way AB and Cro are on that same level), I see AB as someone who'll continue to improve and, as noted, start taking a leadership role on the floor pretty soon.  I just wish you were seeing the same guy I see.

Otherwise, gterrific post -- and nice graphics, Atma.

by johnl on Jan 24, 2008 12:57 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

F
means failed to earn PT in the eyes of the coach

makes sense to me

by hardcore on Jan 23, 2008 10:02 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree
that Jackson is AT BEST a 3rd or 4th option on a playoff team. His shooting this year is just atrocious. Just let him shoot in the 4th quarter.

I think i would have given Brandan, Marco and POB an Undecided. They simply haven't been on the floor this year. When they have, its been in garbage time. So i don't think you can pass any judgement when they've barely been tested in crucial moments of an NBA game.

Warriors, Stupidest franchise in the league.

by kenntoe on Jan 23, 2008 10:21 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Harrington
The hotspot chart illustrates how misused he is. Harrington is perfectly capable of operating in the post and elbow against the vast majority of PF's, even ones bigger than him. He is the answer to our inefficient offense, except we cling to him as a "floor spacer" at the 3P line.

Were he and Biedrins given more touches inside, with the offense geared toward giving them the ball more,  we would be considerably more effective and less prone to offensive slumps.

I much prefer  Harrington as a post option than Stephen Jackson (who consistently leaves the team playing 4 on 5 defense after he goes inside and misses).

SB Nation Quality Control

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Jan 23, 2008 10:49 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Al
When I look at that shot chart the only conclusion I come to is that this guy should be getting more shots period. Despite having some poor games that stick out in our mind (he has had some incredibly cold shooting nights) the guy can clearly score the ball at a reasonably efficient rate, create his own shot (to some degree), and shoot from just about anywhere on the floor.

I agree that he is under-utilized in the post, but even if he sticks to the 3pt line he has earned some of Jack's (and Baron's) shots. Last I checked he was still hitting better than 40% from three and in the mid forties from the field.

Also it seems like he is one of those players who's defense gets better the more he touches the ball on offense.

Nellie may be too lazy to make up some effective plays to get him the ball where he can be effective, but I think it's time to get him a little more involved. And how about paying him more at PF where he can actually take some guys down low and do some work.

.

by olympicmike on Jan 23, 2008 11:22 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Harrington
I'm a bigger fan of Harrington's game than most people on this board, but I think his scoring role on this team is pretty much what it is and how it should be.

The thing that kills me about Harrington is how streaky he is.  There's a big difference between a streaky 40% and a consistent 40%. Some games he'll be a dominant scorer and when that happens he usually does get fed the ball and he scores in bunches, and his high 3 point percentage is a result of these outbursts.

But some games he can't hit anything.  Thankfully, usually he doesn't force the issue too much when this happens.  Relative to Baron and Jax, Harrington knows when he's not feeling it and takes less shots for that game.  He doesn't have the consistent confidence in his game that Baron and Jackson do.  Baron and Jax could go 0/20 in a game and still want to take the last shot.  Harrington is the type of guy that will stop shooting at 0/5.  His shooting percentages are thus preserved. But this mentality doesn't present the opportunity for him to be taking alot of shots per night consistently, which translates to him not being a consistent big scoring threat for us night in and night out like Baron and Jax are.

by jlagace on Jan 23, 2008 11:39 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

streaky
I seriously doubt that Al is any "streakier" than Baron and Jack. The difference (as you alluded to) is the way that he, and more importantly his coach, react to his "streakiness". Al has a much shorter leash than Jack. He gets pulled if he misses consecutive shots, whereas Jack is kept on the floor to ride it out.

He is our second best per-minute scorer (I'm not counting Kosta) despite not getting to the line nearly as much as Jack and Baron. The lack of FT's is mostly because he is used to space the floor against much bigger defenders.

Al:       FG% .453  3pt% .405
Baron: FG% .427  3pt% .350
Jack:   FG% .398   3pt%.324

Streaky or not, over the course of the season the guy is shooting the ball well enough to take more shots and (more importantly) get more minutes (preferably at the four spot).

.

by olympicmike on Jan 23, 2008 11:53 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's what I'm saying
Baron, Jackson, and Harrington are all streaky.  The difference is that Baron and Jackson continue to shoot through their cold steaks, that's who they are.  Harrington is different, he will stop shooting (for the most part) when he's gone cold.

I think there's a wide misconception about why Nelson has such a short leash on Al Harrington.  Nellie doesn't take him out of the game because he doesn't want Al to shoot anymore.  Nellie takes him out of the game because Al stops shooting the ball and stops being aggressive when he goes cold, he gets trigger shy.  Nelson puts his boys in there to score; he's not going to bench you for missing shots, he's going to bench you for not taking shots you should be taking.

by jlagace on Jan 24, 2008 12:07 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

stop shooting
It's hard to keep shooting when you don't have the ball or you're on the bench. Baron and Jack dominate the ball; as a result, their streakiness is correlates to the team's streakiness.

Were they to COMMIT to getting others involved and shoot less, their streakiness would be minimized because they'd simply be spreading shots around anyways.

SB Nation Quality Control

AIM: Jetforze

by OptionZero on Jan 24, 2008 12:29 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Al passive?
Hmm... My eyes tell me that when he's on the floor he is aggressive and the stats agree. His shots per minute are on  par with Baron and Jack. The problem is that he is jerked in and out of the line-up and he can become an afterthought as far as our offensive focus is concerned.

The big problem here is that Nellie plays him at center too much which drives his foul rate up (well that and his boneheaded reach-ins) which can make it hard to keep him on the floor.

I think if he played more PF he could keep his fouls down and his minutes up, which should give him more opportunities on offense.

Hey, on our team Al and Monta are the only guys who seem to have the ability to get their FGA's in the teens while keeping a good fg%. Monta is getting about 35 min a night, I'd like to see Al's minutes up into the mid thirties too (especially if it means less MP at PF). That should put his FGA's in the mid teens, and provided he keeps up his current %, that should make him into an 18-20ppg scorer.

.

by olympicmike on Jan 24, 2008 1:29 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good catch
I hadn't even thought of a shots-per-minute comparo.

On Harrington's foul propensity...it seems to me that his unconscious use of his hands comes up aganist all players, whether in the post or on the perimeter. I doubt there's a stastic that tracks foul rate by position-defended (man, how fun would that be?), but that's just my eyeball observation.

It's a bad habit, that like Jim Barnett said, he does without thinking. He needs to run endless drills playing defense with his hands literally tied behind his back to kill that habit.

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by OptionZero on Jan 24, 2008 1:55 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Al's fouls
Yeah, you are right about his reach-ins and poor use of his hands on D. To me the problem is two fold. One is the reach-ins when he has already been blown by with no chance to make a real defensive play.

The other problem is defending the post. To my eye he picks up a lot of cheap fouls trying to hold position against bigger guys.

Don't get me wrong, it is Al's problem to correct, but I would like to see Nellie do what he can to put him in a position to be successful on defense and offense. Even if he does keep playing him at center, he has to find a way to get him 5 more minutes at PF IMO.

Answering my own question here, the problem is that AB only plays 27 min. That leaves a lot of time to fill at the center spot. POB doesn't get used, Austin Croshere is often injured. That means lots of Al at center and MP and Barnes at PF. Maybe the real problem is keeping AB on the floor, or working in some of the young bigs.

.

by olympicmike on Jan 24, 2008 2:36 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He can't hit anything?
The farther you are from the bucket, the more your FG% is subject to flux.

Any perceive streakiness is inherent in the role we force him into- 3P shooter.

Biedrins Fg% rarely fluctuates, nor does that of any player that hangs around the painted area.

Harrington has the ability, its just severely underutilized.

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by OptionZero on Jan 24, 2008 12:28 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice Job
Nice read, and great idea using the hotspots. It's a good set of data that a lot of us here don't take much time to look at.
.

by olympicmike on Jan 23, 2008 11:25 PM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ah well.
I guess I'm in the minority of graphics-nerds who found those charts basically unreadable. But I should really try and be constructive rather than just snarky. Two huge improvements, from the perspective of both graphics and honesty, would be these:

1. Shrink them so the viewer is able to compare and contrast them as a group. This is the principle of what Tufte calls "small multiples." Granted, it's harder to do on the web, with its scrolling interface, than on the printed page, but it's still totally doable. You could shrink those charts to about 20% of their current size and they'd still be perfectly readable. You'd have to take off the actual numbers and put them to the side, but this would help the clarity of the information as well.

Here's a quickie example I found of a "small multiple" graphic illustrating the difference in A-Rod', er, "spray-patterns" at the Toilet from 2004-2006:

2. Eliminate the silly 50% threshold on either side of which the zones are red or blue. It's extremely misleading. As I noted before, in many cases a single shot made or missed can flip a zone's color. First of all, any area with too small of a sample size (leave it to the statisticians to determine what that is) should be made the same grey as the "no-shoot" zones. Second, instead of the stark red/blue divide, a much better system would be the one of "spectra" conceived by Robert Vanderbei of Princeton for the 2000 US Presidential election:

Here, the actual percentages of Republican and Democratic voters in the various voting districts have been used to show the true nuances of people's political persuasions. (I always knew Americans were a violet people...)

As blunt and dumb a graphic device as the red-blue divide is, in the case of the elections, it actually makes some sense because, in reality, the winner takes all the delegates. (Well, usually, anyway -- Floridians in '00 and Ohioans in '04 might beg to differ). In the case of the hoops charts, the divide makes no sense. The difference between shooting 49% and 51% is basically negligible; and the charts, if meant to convey reality, should really, really reflect this.

End graphics rant for this morning. When I have the time, maybe I'll redo these hotspots per my suggestions so you can all see that I'm just blowing a lot of smoke, JLagace style... ;-)

BTW, Lagace,since you know how how I love to give you (good-natured) crap: I'm eagerly waiting the proof of your twin assertions that (a) All Harrington is streakier than our other shooters; and (b) shooting a "streaky 40%" is better than shooting a "consistent 40%" I think I may actually have heard something to the effect of (b) as it relates to baseball hitters, so I don't dismiss the possibility, but when you have a minute I'd love to see your research... ;-P

by Sleepy Freud on Jan 24, 2008 4:01 AM PST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

D'oh
I just noticed that the grey zones are meant to indicate the author's rather arbitrary conception of "mediocre" not just "no shoot." This is even more confusing...

OK, I couldn't help myself. Here's a quick and dirty of what one of these charts would look like if the designers were more interested in conveying the information clearly than in expressing childlike absolutes of "HOT" and "COLD" (I mean, shouldn't  really hot be white, for white hot...?)

BARON DAVIS

A very simple system: black = 100%, white = 0%, greys for in between. I picked Baron 'cos he has the biggest sample sizes, though I'm still not sure many of the sizes are big enough to be relevant. Still, even with the numbers off, it conveys what it's meant to convey, much more sensitively and accurately than the existing ones.

If one were to increase the sample sizes (say, using the last 3 years of data), and expand the player pool to show some "small multiples" these could actually be some pretty interesting and enlightening charts.

by Sleepy Freud on Jan 24, 2008 5:07 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sleepy
If i ever need some diagrams to show a jury for a big trial, can i call ya?

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by OptionZero on Jan 24, 2008 1:53 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Depends
Would it involve defending the NRA?

If so, sign me up!!!

by Sleepy Freud on Jan 24, 2008 6:25 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

harrington
let me save you some stats work for harrington:

shooting percentages from everywhere on the court, per quarter
1st q:  100%
2nd:  50%
3rd: 25%
4th q:  0%

Enjoy!  Bonus info: the reason Harrington has a short leash w/Nellie is that when his shot isn't falling, his defense is no longer tolerable as he becomes Al Hackington.

by GameSix on Jan 24, 2008 9:47 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

huh
I never said a streaky 40% is better than a consistent 40%?  Not at all.  I'd take a consistent shooter any day, but we don't have any.

by jlagace on Jan 24, 2008 1:30 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oops
I meant the other way around. Quoting:
The thing that kills me about Harrington is how streaky he is. There's a big difference between a streaky 40% and a consistent 40%.

Not just a difference, which would be surprising enough -- a huge difference!! I guess it must be evident to everyone but me that it's so much more effective for a player to go miss-hit-miss-hit-miss than miss-miss-miss-hit-hit.

As usual, I imagine you'll attempt to enlighten me with your inimitable conviction and zeal. ;-P

by Sleepy Freud on Jan 24, 2008 6:24 PM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not that you're still reading, Lagace
But on the off chance you are, I expect the proof of your latest assertion to consist of the following:
  1. Proof that some players are inherently "streakier" than others, and that this is a predictable and repeatable skill.
  2. Proof that Al Harrington is one of these players.
  3. Proof that it's better to distribute your made shots randomly than consecutively.
Good luck, grasshopper...

by Sleepy Freud on Jan 25, 2008 5:00 AM PST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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