This diary was inspired, such as it is, by the diary about whether or not to have drafted Belinelli.

Anyhow, I re-did the lottery picks for the last four drafts as to how I think these guys will turn out in the future. This list gets a bit saner as it goes on, as the very recent drafts are mostly guess work as to how they will turn out.    The players are listed as to how I would draft them, and their actual draft positiion is in parenthasese.

2007 Draft

1. Durant (#2)
   
2. Oden (#1)
   
3. Conley Jr. (#3)
   
4. Sean Williams (#17)
   
5. Thadeus Young (#12)
   
6. Noah (#9)
   
7. Yi (#6)
   
8. Horford (#3)
   
9. Big Baby Davis (#35)
   
10. Daequan Cook (#21)
    
11. B. Wright (#8)
    
12. Aaron Gray (#49)
    
13. Jared Dudley (#22)
    
14. Rodney Stuckey (#15)

Bad Lottery Picks: Brewer #7, Thornton #14, AC Law #11

Comments:  Thus far, this isn't shaping up to be as good as draft as projected. "Thus far" are the key words in that sentence.  Spencer Hawes could be on the bust portion of this list.  Also curious as to how right or wrong I turn out to be about Gray.

2006 Draft

1. Gay (#8)
   
2. Aldridge (#2)
   
3. Roy (#6)
   
4. Milsap (#47)
   
5. Tyrus Thomas (#4)
   
6. Rondo (#21)
   
7. Ronnie Brewer (#14)
   
8. Baragnani (#1)
   
9. Sergio Rodriguez (#27)
   
10. Farmar (#28)
    
11. Foye (#7)
    
12. Daniel Gibson (#27)
    
13. Lowry (#24)
    
14. Josh Boone (#23)

Bad Lottery Picks: Morrison #3, Armstrong #12, O'Bryant #9, Sene #10, JJ Redick #11.

Comments: This was a bad draft.  Obviously, Roy could be #1, I just like Gay and Aldridge's ceilings better.  Do you think the Warriors would have drafted Gay if he were available at #9?  Sefolsha and Sheldon Williams could easily be on the list of bad picks, it's just that this wasn't a good draft and they aren't terrible....This was a crummy year to have a high pick.

2005 Draft

1. Paul (#4)
   
2. Bynum (#10)
   
3. Deron Williams (#3)
   
4. David Lee (#30)
   
5. Marvin Williams (#2)
   
6. Raymond Felton (#5)
   
7. Monta (#40)
   
8. Maxiel (#26)
   
9. Bogut (#1)
   
10. Louis Williams (#45)
    
11. Villanueva (#7)
    
12. Martell Webster (#6)
    
13. May (#13)
    
14. Diogu (#9)

Bad Lottery Picks:  None really.  McCants wasn't great at 14.

Comments: Solid draft helped out a lot by four very good players drafted between 26-45.

2004 Draft

1. Howard (#1)
   
2. Jefferson (#15)
   
3. Josh Smith (#17)
   
4. Kevin Martin (#26)
   
5. Biedrins (#11)
   
6. Igoudola (#9)
   
7. Deng (#7)
   
8. Okafur (#2)
   
9. Devin Harris (#5)
   
10. Childress (#6)
    
11. Gordon (#3)
    
12. Jamier Nelson (#20)
    
13. Udrih (#28)
    
14. Vujacic (#27)

Bad Lottery Picks:
Araujo #7, Luke Jackson #10, Telfair #13, Humphries #14.  Wow, a big time top heavy draft and two lottery picks, Araujo and Jackson, have already been cut.  Shaun Livingston and Robert Swift get a pass due to injuries.

Comments: Biedrins was an outstanding pick, but the amazing thing is that there were three better guys available at #11.  This was a great draft.  Not deep, but the best is fabulous.  Okafur was the consensus #1 and really he would have been a good historical #1.  BTW, Biedrins was the youngest guy in this draft.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?statsId=3274

He's a guy I thought the Warriors should have signed in the first place.  Now, he can be had for minimum.  I'm sure he would be a more productive player than Croshere or Mbenga. Obviously he would be better than Hudson, but when the Warriors cut T-Hud they will have to pick up a guard.

Patterson is a good player who has gotten off to a bad start.  Also, he can't shoot, so he'd fit right in with the Warriors.

I thought this is interesting news, since we've talked about this guy as a possible Warrior.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3141032

The Bobcats signed Varejao to a three-year mid-level deal for $17.4 million.  The Bobcats are way under the luxury tax but couldn't quite do this deal under the salary cap.  The deal includes an opt out after two seasons, at which time I believe Varejao would be an unrestricted FA and the Bobcats wouldn't hold "bird rights" on him.  Maybe somebody could check on that.

Cleveland has a week to match the offer.  Their problem, and the reason why they haven't come to terms with Varejao in the first place, is that they are already over the luxury tax.  If they match this deal, they will be close to $9 million over the tax level, which means they will have to pay an additional $9 million in taxes.  It makes one wonder why Danny Ferry has a job.  I mean, it's not like there a lot of All-Stars on that team besides LeBron.

For those looking for something involving Kobe, please turn to the next diary.   This is more pedtestrian stuff.

POB for Kirk Synder

Kirk Synder is currently languishing on the bench for the suddenly too deep Houston Rockets.  
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/stats?statsId=3833
I wouldn't call him good or anything,  but he is an athletic swing man, who depsite not being a good ballhandler, would fit into Nellie ball.  He is a decent 3P shooter, who shot over 35% his first two seasons.  Last season was mostly a lost cause, as he sat with a wrist injury.  He's very good at rebounding, blocked shots and running the break.

Sure, he's a bit of a repeat of Pietrus, Buike and Belinelli, but on any given night, he could  be the best of bunch.    And let's face it, Nellie is much more apt to play an athletic swingman than POB, Wright or Croshere.

POB is likely to just take space on the  bench.  Why not make a salary neutral trade (both have  expiring  salaries) for someone who could actually be useful?   And cut T-Hud, while you're at it!

No link, yet.  But the Mavericks have cut DJ Mbenga to clear room for Howard.  Apparently the two sides have agreed on a contract (probably veteran minimum) but Howard can't sign until tomorrow, because he hasn't offically cleared waivers.  Howard will probably help out at the 5 spot while Dampier is down, as well as back up Dirk.

==============================================

[Moderator's Note, by OptionZero:]

Link at NBA.com

Howard (6-9, 253) hit the open market after Minnesota bought out his contract and should join the Mavs on the season-opening two-game road trip, perhaps as early as Wednesday night at Cleveland. The power forward has averaged 16.1 points and 7.1 rebounds over his 12-year career, including a stint in Dallas over parts of two seasons (2000-01 and ’01-02).

"Juwan was too big of an opportunity to pass up," president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson told mavs.com. "Juwan is a winner, he’s a leader and he knows the Maverick way.

"He can swing from the ‘4’ to ‘5,’ so it gives us tremendous flexibility on the frontline."

Howard should join the rotation immediately backing up Gana Diop and Dirk Nowitzki up front. The Mavs were in need of help down low, especially with Erick Dampier out. Brandon Bass was the only other healthy big man with NBA experience on the roster.

The team made room for Howard by releasing four-year center DJ Mbenga, who recently returned from a knee injury. Mbenga (7-0, 240) played three seasons in Dallas and holds career averages of 1.3 points and 0.9 rebounds in 79 games.

This is from 82 Games.

Most of you probably know plus/minus player ratings.  That is simply the team's performance when a player is on the floor vs. the team's performance when that player is off the floor.  Usually a team is 10 points worse (per 40 minutes) when a superstar is off the floor, as opposed to 10 points better when a terrible player does not play.  Everybody else is somewhere in between.

But there are flaws to that system of evaluating players.  Namely, no two players are ever playing with and against the same players.  So, it's a different context or playing field for every player.

But, what if that context was determined?  I.E. each player that any one player plays with and against is rated.  So, if Baron Davis is playing with a bunch of crummy players against a really good team, his impact on the team will be judged in that context, as opposed to when he is playing with good players against a really bad team. That seems to be a nightmare of a task to figure out, but that is exactly what the  masochists at 82 Games have done.

The result theoretically shows the impact of every player on his team regardless of his opponents and his teammates.  The beauty of this rating is that it imcompasses all aspects of play - offense and defense.

Here are the top 20 players according to this system.  While the exact rankings may be somewhat surprising, the group of players seems to be intuitively correct.  The only surprises are Rondo, Anthony Parker and McDyess.  Rondo and Parker have top defensive reputations and McDyess used to be a dominating player who has apparently recovered from injuries more than most people have given him credit.

As you see, Baron is 7th, between Kobe and Dwayne Wade.

Top 20 Players for 2006-2007 Season
    Adjusted +/-
(per 40 min)           2006-07  

  1. Garnett, Kevin     12.35    
  2. James, LeBron     12.01    
  3. Duncan, Tim     10.89    
  4. Arenas, Gilbert     8.80    
  5. Kidd, Jason     8.74    
  6. Bryant, Kobe     8.70    
  7. Davis, Baron     7.72    
  8. Wade, Dwayne     7.56    
  9. Pierce, Paul     7.24    
 10. Ginobili, Manu     6.77    
 11. Nowitzki, Dirk     6.45    
 12. Brand, Elton     6.30    
 13. Artest, Ron     6.25    
 14. Parker, Anthony     6.13    
 15. Nash, Steve     6.04    
 16. Rondo, Rajon     5.59    
 17. Deng, Luol     5.58    
 18. Billups, Chauncey     5.42    
 19. Redd, Michael     5.42    
 20. McDyess, Antonio     5.07    

Here's the link, which also rates all of the other players.

http://www.82games.com/ilardi1.htm

Notice, the Warriors regular rotation featured four above average players (Davis, Biedrins, Jackson and Richardson) two average players (Barnes and Ellis) and two below average players (Harrington and Pietrus, whose detractors will delight in his horrible ranking).  Not only does the Warrior's player ratings seem to intuitively jive with the opinions of those of us who followed them closely, but it substaniates their outstanding season ending play when they were all healthy.

Also, notice a lot of surprises with player ratings as you go down the list, Tony Parker, Jefferson, Stoudemire, Carmello Anthony, etc..

I thought fellow GSoMers might find this interesting.  Basically Vegas's version of Power Rankings.  If you think any of these numbers are off, make a bet!  Your chance to put your money where your mouth is.
The Warriors are right in the middle with 42 wins.

I couldn't find adjusted season win totals for recent events, such as Bibby's injury and theRicky Davis trade.  I assume the current betting line would reflect that (Sacramento would have a lower number, Miami would have a higher number).

Dallas 56 1/2
Phoenix 56 1/2
San Antonio 55 1/2
Houston 53 1/2
Detroit 50
Boston 49
Chicago 49
Denver 49
Cleveland 48 1/2
Utah 48
Orlando 46 1/2
Miami 46
New Jersey 43 1/2
Warriors 42
LA Lakers 42
Toronto 42
Washington 40
Atlanta 38
New Orleans 38
New York 36 1/2
Milwaukee 35 1/2
Charlotte 35
Sacramento 34 1/2
Memphis 33
Philadelphia 32
Indiana 31 1/2
LA Clippers 31
Portland 30 1/2
Seattle 27 1/2
Minnesota 20

I have some season tickets that I have to sell.  I'm not trying to sell them here.  I'm just wondering what experiences fellow GSoMers have had selling Warrior tickets through the various internet outlets.

The options appear to be Craig's List, the Warriors web site and Stub Hub.  Craig's List is free and appears to get the most traffic.  But the other options appear to be a hassle free way to sell, although not free.

What are some of your experiences selling Warrior tickets?

One topic which came out of the "What if this is it?" diary, was whether or not the Wariors roster was set for training camp.  If it isn't, and further trades are to come, I thought it would be interesting to list the possible assets that they have to trade.

Here are their 15 players under contract, including Peitrus, who has a Warriors offer pending, listed in reverse order of tradability/value or the likelyhood of being traded.

Untradables or untouchables:

15. Baron Davis
Davis isn't untradable, but for now he is an untouchable.  When the Warriors decide to blow this team up and start from scratch, they'll try to deal him.  Until then, they are building around him.

14. Stephen Jackson
Not an untouchable but probably an untradable.  He's got three years and $21.5 Million left on a contract, which is difficult to stomach for teams that are afraid of his on and off court combustability.  That's pretty much all of the teams.  Plus, he's a good fit and Nellie likes him.  He's staying.

13. Andres Biedrens
Short of being included in a package for a superstar, he's an untouchable.  And that potential superstar deal appears to have come and gone.

12. Kosta Perovic
I think he can be traded in about three weeks, but who would possibly want him?  3 Years, $5 million (I think) for a project center with mediocre Euroleague stats?  This is Mullin's most puzzling move since Dunleavy's extention.

11. Austin Croshere
He can't be traded before Dec. 15th, but it is possible he may be cut before then.

Tradables:

10. Klenna Azuibuike
Can't be traded until Dec. 15th.  But if he proves vauluable in the meantime, seems that he would be a lock to stay on the Warrior's roster for the duration of his two-year minmum wage contract.

9. Matt Barnes
Again, can't be traded until Dec. 15th, because he signed as a FA this off-season.  But he had some other FA interest and signed a low-budget expiring contract.  I'm not sure under what circumstances the Warriors would WANT to trade him, but if they so deemed, it would be pretty doable.

8. Adonal Foyle
His contract is much more tradable than it at first seems, which is one reason I don't think he will be bought out. First off, the Warriors can always take back a similar, but perhaps even worse salary, in order to acquire a desirable player.  And in a multi-player deal, Foyle could easily be included to take up salary space.  Overall, as his two year contract gets closer to its conclusion, he becomes a more valuable trading chip.  Plus, as of now, he could still probably serve as a back-up center on some teams.

7.  P.O.B.
Many of us don't think he'll ever make it in this league, but he's only 21, is only one year away from being the 8th pick in the draft and has only one guarenteed year and $2.3 million left on his contract.

6. Sarunas Jaskvevicius
An expiring contract for a reasonable price ($4 million).  Sarunas could easily play a back-up point in most systems.  He's shot 37% of treys in his NBA career, to boot.

5. Michael Pietrus
Michael has to go this high on the list, because there are still S&T rumours cirulating about him, as I write.  Not that he'll neccessarily get traded, but I think his playoff play impressed some teams.  Nelson wasn't afraid to play him under any ciricumstances.  Plus he's still young (25) and has all that athleticism.  His lack of both improvement and basketball IQ continues to be a concern.

4. Al Harrington
Has a big contract, 3 years $27.6 million, which holds his tradability back.  But does things that coaches like and GMs value.  Is a very good on-the-ball defender, has a varied offensive game (post-up game, mid and long range jump shots, can put the ball on the floor), which fits in many systems. Also, he is a good egg.  Has his drawbacks - a SF trapped in a PF's body, can't rebound if his life depended on it, can't guard strong inside guys - but for the right team, would be valuable player.

3. Marco Belinelli
Has the best publicist this side of Paris Hilton for a guy with crummy Euroleauge stats (If you think FG%, rebounds and assists mean anything).  I know people here love him, but for a guy shot 42% in summer league (INCLUDING a great game), he could garner a lot more than your average 18th pick.

2. Brandan Wright
What bodes well for his trade value is that he was considered to be the 3rd pick in the draft at one point.  Clearly, most teams aren't sold on him as a can't miss - too skinny, lack of rebounding, was hiding hip injury - but his upside is excellent, and he is a long 6'9 1/2".

1. Monta Ellis
Will be only 22 and had an above averge PER.  Also, improved tremendously as a defensive player last season.  Will probably become a good 3P shooter, which will help combat defenders laying off him to prevent the drive.  The key to his future value will probably be whether he can evolve into a PG.  Otherwise he faces somewhat of an uphill battle as a career undersized SG.

Bonus: Trading Exception and Draft Picks
Maybe their best trading asset.  Most teams are capped out, so this is something only a couple of teams can offer.  If the Warriors used it right now, it would probably put them over the luxury tax.  You might see them wait to use it until the mid-season trading deadline.

Just idle conversation, but I think this trade would make sense for both teams.

Kirilenko is having an off-year and Sloan has apparently had it with him.  The Jazz have been looking for a quality big guard for some time and Jason certainly fits that bill.

The trade would work salary-cap wise, although the Warriors would be taking on the bigger salary, which is another reason that the Jazz may be interested.

AK-47 isn't the true PF that the Warriors need, but he would improve their rebounding and defense.  Warriors would start Harrington and AK as two tweener forwards, with Baron and Jackson as the starting guards and Monta and Pietrus off the bench.  Kirilenko's blocks and steals would be a great way for the Warriors to ignite their fastbreak.

Also, J-Rich and AK-47 are the same age almost to the day.  What do you think?