It's the moment you've all been waiting for...
Actually that's probably a little too dramatic. As far as I know Chris Cohan (aka the worst owner in all of sports) is not selling the Golden State Warriors today.)
Okay it's the next best thing. Ladies and gentlemen get ready for Golden State of Mind's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Preview!
(Well at least the first part.)
We about to BUMRUSH the Roaracle on opening night for GSoM Night 7!
You've read the rest. Now it's time for the best.
After the jump we drop science at the university level!
At most universities if you're interested in taking Economics you usually first take Micro-Economics and then Macro-Economics. We'll follow that course sequence here and start with the Micro (individual players) before we tackle the Macro (the assemblage).
Micro-Warriornomics: It takes 15!
To do what exactly nightly at the Roaracle I'm not so sure, but we'll continue...
Before we look at toMorrow I wanted to take a look back at yesterday. Here's a interesting per 36 minute comparison for these two sharp shooters at age 23 in the NBA. (significant highs in bold)
Sharp Shooter A: 16.1 ppg (47.8% FG, 46.7% 3pt, 87.0% FT), 4.7 rpg, 1.9 apg
Sharp Shooter B: 16.0 ppg (47.9% FG, 40.2% 3pt, 84.4% FT), 3.9 rpg, 3.1 apg
Who are these sharpshooters you ask?
... ... ...
... ... ...
... ... ...
A is Anthony Morrow.
Lights out.
B is none other than... Reggie Miller.
Reggie must've been Steve Kerr's man to guard here.
Reggie Miller Part II? Okay that's obviously going a little overboard (a little?), but I like what I see. I do like what I see.
-- Atma Brother #1
Anthony Morrow Scouting Report
Strengths
- Elite shooter with fantastic muscle memory
- More than adequate rebounding rate that sets him apart from those one-trick pony sharpshooters (Jason Kapono, J.J. Reddick, etc.)
- Willingness to get scrappy on defense
Before we look at toMorrow I wanted to take a look back at yesterday. Here's a interesting per 36 minute comparison for these two sharp shooters at age 23 in the NBA. (significant highs in bold)
Sharp Shooter A: 16.1 ppg (47.8% FG, 46.7% 3pt, 87.0% FT), 4.7 rpg, 1.9 apg
Sharp Shooter B: 16.0 ppg (47.9% FG, 40.2% 3pt, 84.4% FT), 3.9 rpg, 3.1 apg
Who are these sharpshooters you ask?
Lights out.
Reggie must've been Steve Kerr's man to guard here.
Reggie Miller Part II? Okay that's obviously going a little overboard (a little?), but I like what I see. I do like what I see.
-- Atma Brother #1
Weaknesses
- Limited handles and ability to create for himself or others
- Slow feet especially on D
- Not an elite NBA level athlete
Golden Number: 46.7%
Ammo is the reigning NBA 3pt Champ and 96% of folks here at GSoM think he's got a great shot to repeat. As you can see, there aren't many haters around this neighborhood.
O Captain, My Captain No More
O Captain, my Captain!Say it ain't soO Captain, my Captain!You don't wanna be captain no moO Captain, my Captain!This is getting out of handO Captain, my Captain!Get outta here with your trade demandsO Captain, my Captain!I can't support thisO Captain, my Captain!TWO Techs? Just for kicks?O Captain, my Captain!You are DEAD WRONGO Captain, my Captain!You no longer belongO Captain, my Captain!I can't believe it's all happenin'O Captain, my Captain!You are a huge distractionO Captain, my Captain!It's time for you to departO Captain, my Captain!THERE IS NO ROOM FOR YOU IN MY HEART.-- R Dizzle
Read the rest of Stephen Jackson's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Stephen Jackson Scouting Report
Strengths
- Bamboozling Warriors President Robert Rowell in contract negotiations that don't need to be happening in the first place
- For the most part doing all that's asked of him on the court by Nellie and to his credit that's a lot because of the many holes on this roster
- Wanting to win... as long as he gets paid (e.g. leaving the San Antonio Spurs after winning a ring with Tim Duncan and company to pursue lottery dreams with the Atlanta Hawks and inking an absurd long term extension with the Warriors AFTER the fabulous WE BELIEVE show was destroyed)
Weaknesses
- Saying the "right" things to the media to help boost his trade value
- Turnovers, shot selection, rebounding
- Being a captain
Golden Number: 2
As in 2 technical fouls in 3 PRESEASON games?! We don't call him "Captain Technical" for nothing.
(Not the 1st, 2nd, or the 3rd, but the 4th!)
Wouldn't Count on It
Law. Claxton. George.
There is always a chance that one of these players will step up and contribute.
But I wouldn't count on it.
-- JAE
Read the rest of the Acie Law/ Speedy Claxton/ Devean George 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Acie Law/ Speedy Claxton/ Devean George Scouting Report
Whatever Nellie can get out of these 3 would be an unexpected, but welcome bonus. Nellie has talked about using Law in a point forward role. This is a 6'3 guard we're talking about.
Don Nelson also once hyped up Chris Mullin favs Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy before promptly demanding that they be shipped out. Point being, Nellie says a lot of entertaining things before the season starts.
Golden Number: 9,025,614
As in dollars. That's a nice chunk of expiring contracts that Nellie and GM Larry Riley might be able to cash in on closer to the annual NBA trading deadline come February.
Injury Prone
INJURED.
Sorry, too easy.
But in all seriousness, a shoulder dislocation is one of those injuries that you can call being "injury prone." It does weaken the joint and lead to further injury if it is stressed by a big force - say, a big guy trying to block you. Now, I don't know how the "slap" happened in practice on Friday, but I'm assuming it was by someone bigger than him. (I think someone mentioned it being Anthony Randolph, but I don't know for sure.) Either way, it happened, and it shows that he does have recurring shoulder problems.
Now there's one obvious question that comes up - how did he get reinjured after bulking up? I'm no doctor, but two things pop in my head as a bioengineer.
- Yes, he bulked up, but it might have been in a case of too much too fast. If you add a bunch of muscle quickly, you basically didn't do it naturally. It's pretty physically hard to toss on 10 pounds of muscle (or more) in a month without the use of steriods or a bunch of protein. He had a small frame prior to the extensive working out and it might not be able to support it all initially.
- The injury at his shoulder joint never fully healed. If this is the case (which is pretty possible) little things (like a slap) would set it off. When you're doing muscle training and just trying to bulk up, if you're doing it properly (which he probably was because he had a trainer present), the shoulder muscles were isolated. This means abnormal movements or things that would aggravate the joint would not have occured in the muscle training, thus, it would be possible for him to add on pounds.
-- R Dizzle
Read the rest of Brandan Wright's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Brandan Wright Scouting Report
Strengths
- Extremely efficient scorer
- Inspector Gadget-like blocks
- Low turnovers
Weaknesses
- Soft rebounder and defender
- Still looks fairly clueless more often than not on the court
- Sadly... injury prone
Golden Number: 68.7%
The percentage of games Wright has racked up a DNP for whatever reason in his first 3 seasons in the league. (169 games missed/ 246 possible games)
Years in the making!
Let There Be Hope
Wrong Curry. But equally as exciting!
I would be remiss to not mention that if you have any percentage of South Asian blood in you, or if you just happen to like Indian food, go out and buy a Curry jersey. Long after this kid starts to average 25 ppg and goes to another team for $20 more because Rowell refuses to match the offer, a jersey that says "Curry" on the back will bring you endless joy. Also, discounts among Indian restaurants across the greater Bay Area. It's really the gift that keeps on giving.
-- Hash
Read the rest of Stephen Curry's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Stephen Curry Scouting Report
Strengths
- Court vision and distributing the rock
- Hoops IQ
- Great attitude and willingness to learn and work hard from the best
Weaknesses
- Shooting- believe it or not, but Curry has struggled mightily both from the field and long distance in the summer league, preseason, and practice. This doesn't mean he won't/ can't be a great NBA shooter someday, but don't expect much his rookie season in this department. Don't forget it took Steve Nash quite some time to post elite FG and 3pt percentages.
- Guarding bigger and stronger players.
- Questionable support from the vets on this team (not his fault of course)
Golden Number: 28.6
The number of points Curry averaged at the age of 20 while facing constant double and triple teams in college (admittedly against b-rate competition). Will he score like that in the pro's? Probably not, but that's undoubtedly intriguing.
Here's some bonus numbers for you-- Allen Iverson Age 20 vs. Stephen Curry Age 20
Back in the Saddle
First the 2008/09 recap. One fine August day in Mississippi, 2008, Monta mounted his moped ...
OK, fast forward. One chilly January day in Oakland 2009, Monta returned from hoops purgatory. The season was already in the tank, spirits of Warrior Nation were low, and Monta's game didn't do much to raise them, initially. His first five games back from the DL, he looked nothing like the irresistible force we had last seen at the end of '07/08 doing a passable impersonation of Dwyane Wade. January '09 per game numbers: 29.8 min / 12.4 pts (.369 fg%) / 2.8 reb / 2.4 ast / 2.4 to.
In February things picked up -- a bit. 35.3 min / 14.0 pts (.414 fg%) / 4.1 reb / 3.0 ast / 2.5 to.
Then the ankle got cranky again, and the kid was shut down for a couple of weeks. Upon his second coming in mid-March ... lo and behold, he started to look a bit more like the Monta we knew and ... loved? 37.4 min / 23.5 pts (.493 fg%) / 4.5 reb / 4.4 ast / 2.8 to. And finally, to close out his season, a cherry of a game on top off the distinctly un-sundae-ish pile of suck that was the season as a whole: 42 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists.
Fast forward to the present. What to expect in 2009/10? Well, even if you attribute some of his '07/08 success to the elite distributive skills of Baron Davis, I don't see why we can't look at his last healthy stretch of play as a baseline. We have a tendency to forget just how good Monta was the second half of that season, pre- fat contract, pre-moped, pre-awkward dissembling, pre- breaking the hearts of Warrior Nation, pre- Stephen Golden Curry. To jog people's collective memory:
Feb '08 -- 40.2 min / 26.0 pts (.602 fg%) / 4.7 reb / 4.8 ast / 1.7 to
Mar '08 -- 41.4 min / 22.6 pts (.529 fg%) / 6.3 reb / 4.6 ast / 2.6 to
Apr '08 -- 38.3 min / 22.3 pts (.538 fg%) / 6.3 reb / 4.3 ast / 3.2 to
Unless you think the ankle injury has permanently sapped some of his explosiveness, I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine that Monta, at age 23/24, can be that guy again. Efficient scorer, sweet mid-range shooter, spectacular finisher, solid rebounder for his size ... Monta Monti Monté Montay Monteigh will always be those things. Still ... a few nagging questions persist:
-- Sleepy Freud
Read the rest of Monta Ellis' 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Monta Ellis Scouting Report
Strengths
- Attacking the rim
- Rebounding well for a smallish 2-guard
- Running the one man fast break
Weaknesses
- There's a reason Monta Ellis garnered so many votes for the 2008-2009 2008-2009 WDWY (Worst Defensive Warrior of the Year)
- Court vision and too many turnovers
- Sounding the least bit intelligent in interviews
- Riding mopeds at "low speeds"
Golden Number: 57
The 6th Wonder of the Oracle
Like his heavy contract or not, it's tough to deny that Maggette isn't a offensive force. Last year Mags averaged 18.6 ppg, and 5.6 boards per game, a considerable contribution for our leading non-starter.
The issue with Mags is, is he capable of making a bid for more? Before the dabaucle that was media day, Nellie had already come out and said that Maggette will be starting the season in the role of 6th man again.
Corey Maggette will be the sixth man. If Curry starts, Ellis plays the 2; if Azubuike starts, Ellis plays point and Jackson plays the 2; if Morrow starts, Ellis plays point and Jackson plays 3; and if Wright starts, Randolph moves to the 3 and Jackson plays the 2.
That's a lot of options. All of which put Maggette at the six.It's clear that Nellie is going to bring in his scoring capabilities when needed, but the priority this season will be building up the young guns to run this team. Poor Maggette. But then again, just because he's paid $9 million doesn't mean we're going to get $9 million worth of talent, right?
-- Hash
Read the rest of Corey Maggette's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Corey Maggette Scouting Report
Strengths
- Miraculously getting "Michael Jordan" treatment from the refs nightly
- Not only getting to the free throw line an astounding 8 times a game, but sinking over 80% of his free throws
- Dope verses on the Snoop Dogg track produced by Dr. Dre "B*tch Please"
Weaknesses
- Sharing the ball (1.8 apg : 2.4 to)
- Staying healthy
- Playing all that much defense which is pretty disappointing given his stunning physique
Golden Number: 3
Hope Beyond the Hype
Randolph has certainly grown into the hype and hopes surrounding him. His name appears as the only real "untouchable" on the Warriors roster. His summer league performance indicates mostly that he significantly outclassed the competition, and he looks to build on the the success enjoyed at the end of last season in a bigger role this year. While he must continue to refine his shot and shot selection to be able to carry a greater portion of the offensive load and give the Warriors a real threat in the paint. He will need to reduce his fouls and show more defensive discipline as well. But there is every reason to believe this is possible. Nelson now says that Randolph turned his work ethic around and is now perhaps the team's hardest worker. With Wright now sidelined for somewhere between a few months and eternity, Randolph will have every chance to shine full time at PF, though in Nellie's offense that is predicated on versatility, he will have much opportunity to flash those skills that excited many early last year as well. As a 4 able to put the ball on the floor at times who is also a beast on the glass who can swat shots with authority. HOF potential like Lakers' versatile big man Lamar Odom suggests?
Let's not get so far ahead of ourselves. Odom also said that Randolph could shoot the three, of which there's yet no evidence. And while he did seem to find some success with a shot off the right elbow, outside of the paint, AR has a ways to go. His opening performance against the Clippers shows that his willingness to shoot -- 13 shots in 10 minutes -- may precede his ability to knock 'em down. The part of his offensive game that has worked has not been effectively all that different from that of front-court mates Andris Biedrins or the once again injured Wright. Wright, despite appearing to have fewer weapons upon which to draw, managed to both take and make more shots per minute on the floor. Randolph must show that his skills warrant getting him the ball in designed sets. There's still quite a bit of polishing that needs to be done before booking reservations to Springfield. But as long as he can clean the glass with the best of them, he should get opportunities to improve.
-- JAE
Read the rest of Anthony Randolph's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Anthony Randolph Scouting Report
Strengths
- Serious hyperactivity on the glass and with the swatage
- Work ethic (something you couldn't really say about rookie AR)
- Some serious, serious, serious potential to get even a writer who despises endless and mythically bright Warriors youth movements (that would be me)... dream
Weaknesses
- Out of control way too often leading to turnovers and poor decisions
- Still very raw on offense
- In-progress man-to-man defense
Golden Number: 4
How many months older Randolph is than rookie and budding superstar Blake Griffin. Interesting indeed.
Storm-a-brewin'?
But jokes aside, Watson clearly didn't want to be here. As some reports note, with the glut of point guards, minutes might be hard to come by. Instead of going for the longer term stability that the Warriors offered (3 years at $5million), Watson took the one year qualifying offer of $1.05 million. He even rejected the Philly 1 year offer of $2.3 million.
All this is to say that with Watson's 2010 unrestricted status, next year's free-agent class - Lebron James, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Dirk Nowitski - just got more amazing (hehe...).
The other subtext is how bad are the Warriors that when guaranteed money is as hard to come by as it is in this economy, that people are more willing to opt for the "freedom of choice."
Anyway, back to CJ Watson. I'm impressed the Warriors showed some restraint and resigned him for some minimum dollars. For most of the season, he was a one trick pony. Score in bunches, do little else. And maybe that's just what was asked of him.
But in the last month of the season, when the Warriors starters were either resting up or out with injuries, Watson ended up, surprisingly averaged 17ppg, 5.5 asts, and 4 rbs a game. Stats-aside, Watson was probably one of the few ball-handlers on the team that could dribble proficiently with both hands. Although he often dribbled too much, you won't expect him to make a telegraphed pass Monta Ellis--style or to dribble into a triple team expecting-a-foul-only-to-get-
stripped (see Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggete). And unlike all the rest of the Warriors, Watson actually makes his free throws!-- DJ Fuzzy Logic
Read the rest of C.J. Watson's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
C.J. Watson Scouting Report
Strengths
- Nice old school mid-range jumper
- Sweet shot from downtown (40.0% 3pt last season)
- Continuing Orlando Magic streak of Warriors fetishes (Andrew DeClerq, Adonal Foyle, Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes, and even Skip to My Lou)
- Being a point guard (2.7 apg : 1.2 to)
- Not a physical force or strong rebounder
- Provides ZERO resistance to penetrating guards
Golden Number: 15
Uh-oh.
Mikki Moore - Ronny Turiaf Sr.
In all fairness, and I'll be honest, I don't know much about Mikki Moore so he may be more than poster fodder for this upcoming season...
I also know that ESPN's player page has the pronunciation of his name in all caps: "MIKEY", not "Mickey". I think that explains why he's always screaming and yelling. He needs to be heard! From here on out, I will refer to him as MIKEY! and you can pretend I'm screaming it every time I write it.
I know MIKEY! signed for the veteran minimum, $825,497. Yup, half of what I make, sucka.
I know that MIKEY! is not going to contribute much to the Warriors championship run. He might help pour the champagne though.
-- Fantasy Junkie
Read the rest of Mikki Moore's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Mikki Moore Scouting Report
Strengths
- Uncanny ability to drive Warriors fans, coaches, and players absolutely nuts with his on-court theatrics
- Uncanny ability to drive opposing fans, coaches, and players absolutely nuts with his on-court theatrics
- Stylin' hairdo
Weaknesses
- Unimpressive rebound rate for a player billed as a "banger"
- Unimpressive shot block rate for a player billed as a "banger"
- ZERO upside
Golden Number: 11
Still Gettin' Hyphy
So Goofy.
What can I say? Ronny's just Ronny - and you gotta love him for that. He's not about to be an All Star any time soon, but who cares? He brings the fire every night and he does it with a huge smile. Coach Nelson and the rest of the teammates only speak great words about him and what he contributes.Stephen Jackson used to be my favorite player, but as the drama continues, it's getting harder and harder to support him. And the more I think about it, the more I realize that Tender-Ronny is exactly what I enjoy about basketball players - hard-working, fun loving, and just happy to be there. Through the Youth Movement, he's never complained, never made trade demands, hell, I rarely hear his name in the Warriors Tabloids (trade rumors or other types of drama). He's exactly what we need for the Young Gunz and that makes me happy.There aren't too many bright spots this year, but I'd put my money on Ronny Turiaf making this enjoyable.-- R Dizzle
Read the rest of Ronny Turiaf's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Ronny Turiaf Scouting Report
Strengths
- Uncanny ability to drive Warriors fans, coaches, and players absolutely nuts with his on-court theatrics
- Uncanny ability to drive opposing fans, coaches, and players absolutely nuts with his on-court theatrics
- Stylin' hairdo
Weaknesses
- Unimpressive rebound rate for a player billed as a "banger"
- Despite having a fantastic shot block rate, he's not as good of a man-to-man defender as you'd like
- Shaky jumpshot
Golden Number: 3.6
The Forgotten Warrior
Whether you call it Nellie ball, small ball, or gimmick ball, Don Nelson uses his centers in a unique way. He simultaneously wants them crashing the boards and blocking shots, but doesn't want them plodding along or clogging up the middle. They need to be mobile and agile, with soft hands and good instincts. It's nice if they have a 10 foot jump shot or can pass from the high post, but their primary job is to stop penetration, secure the defensive rebound, start the break, and get down to the other end of the court to be in offensive rebounding position before the shot goes up (not always an easy task when the Warriors are going full throttle). No one has been better at this since Nelson first coached the Warriors than Andris Biedrins.
But Andris' outstanding play often gets overlooked because he's so foundational. He's not the focus of the offense, he just provides the stops and rebounds that allow the rest of the team to get out on the break. He's usually not the man streaking to the basket for a dunk, but it's often his screen that created the glimpse of daylight making the play possible. And Andris might not be getting many shots per game, but it's his offensive rebounds that give the other Warriors even more looks at the basket. When Andris goes down -- as he did with appendicitis two years ago and a variety of ailments last year -- opposing guards get closer to the rim, opposing big men get more second chance points, the Warriors take longer to start their breaks, the lanes to the basket collapse, and the second chance points dry up. The emergence of Anthony Randolph has helped take some of the pressure off Biedrins, but on far too many nights the Latvian and longest-tenured Warrior (along with Monta) still looks like Custer, making his last stand in the paint.
-- Adam
Read the rest of Andris Biedrins' 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Andris Biedrins Scouting Report
Strengths
- Elite rebounder who brings it on the glass every night
- Efficient scorer
- Very crafty at sneaking close to the bucket for easy shots
Weaknesses
- Soft defender who fouls too much
- Hideous looking free throw stroke and jumpshot with hideous results (hide the children)
- Probably maxed out his game at a young age with his limited game and athletic ability
Golden Number: 20
The Price is Right
More importantly, Azubuike's efficiency was also up last season. See the graph below comparing 2008-09 to 2007-08: he knocked down a higher percentage of his field goals, 3-point shots (good for 4th-best in the league), and free throws, plus also drew more fouls--all leading to a higher True Shooting %.
Basketball-Reference.com has a statistic called Win Shares, which attempts to translate a player's total boxscore contributions over the course of a season into team wins. Azubuike recorded 4.1 win shares on the year--not a great absolute number, but good enough for 2nd place on a 29-win team (after Andris Biedrins). When you map win shares to salary, Azubuike and some of his low-priced teammates look even better:
Bottom line: the team performed better last year when Azubuike was playing. Opponents scored 3.3 points per 100 possessions fewer when he was on the floor, which is more than you can say for Stephen Jackson (as Tom Zillerpointed out last week). And Azubuike's raw +/- numbers landed him on Tim Kawakami's season honor roll.
-- Jason G
Read the rest of Kelenna Azubuike's 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Player Preview and Recap
Kelenna Azubuike Scouting Report
Strengths
- Vastly underrated 3pt shooter (44.8% 3pt last season)
- Excellent rebounding for a swingman
- Steady presence off the bench and fairly reliable spot starter
Weaknesses
- Extremely poor court vision and overall assist rate
- Not the fastest or quickest NBA player
- Can disappear for long stretches once in awhile
Golden Number: 0
The number of games the Warriors won last season without Kaz.
**********
Shout out to my golden peoples (Fantasy Junkie, Hash, DJ Fuzzy Logic, R Dizzle, JAE, Tony.psd, Sleepy Freud, Adam, and Jason G) for making this meta-Micro-Warriornomics piece possible.
Wait did I just write "meta-Micro-Warriornomics"? Okay, that's probably not a word, but you get the point.
Stay tuned for Part II of the GSoM 2009-2010 Golden State Warriors Preview-- Macro-Warriornomics!