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Open Thread II: 2009 NBA Draft Lottery- Welcome to the 2009 Playoffs Warriors fans!

UPDATE (4:06 pm): Originally posted on May 19, 2009 12:15 AM PDT. Bumped up for the big show, but you better believe it's going back down if the Warriors fall to #10. Whether the Warriors land the #1 pick or slip 3 spots- remember GSoM is a family show!


How's this for dedication? We had an open thread up for today's big event TWO whole months in advance!

It's playoff time in the Bay! It's time for our annual installment of the NBA Lottery.



After the jump a look at the 7 different possible scenarios for the Warriors this afternoon and how they've worked out the past 10 years for the teams drafting in those respective slots.

Odds via Wikipedia

#1 PICK (4.3% chance): A dream come true.

Hey you know GSoM did win the 2009 NBA Blogger Draft lottery, so maybe our luck will continue. Blake Griffin is the consensus #1 overall pick and I doubt the Warriors deviate from the norm here. Griffin would be a god-send and looks like a real deal franchise player.

Here's the last 10 #1 overall picks:

  • 2008: Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)
  • 2007: Greg Oden (Portland TrailBlazers)
  • 2006: Andrea Bargnani (Toronto Raptors)
  • 2005: Andrew Bogut (Milwaukee Bucks)
  • 2004: Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic)
  • 2003: LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)
  • 2002: Yao Ming (Houston Rockets)
  • 2001: Kwame Brown (Washington Wizards)- BUST
  • 2000: Kenyon Martin (New Jersey Nets)
  • 1999: Elton Brand (Chicago Bulls)

#2 PICK (4.9% chance): So close, but not close enough.

The pundits seem to be picking Ricky Rubio to go #2, but is he really that much better than the next point guard on the board Brandon Jennings who is "mocked" to go as low as 7? I don't know.

#2's since 1999:

  • 2008: Michael Beasley (Miami Heat)
  • 2007: Kevin Durant (Seattle SuperSonics)
  • 2006: LaMarcus Aldridge (Chicago Bulls)
  • 2005: Marvin Williams (Atlanta Hawks)
  • 2004: Emeka Okafor (Charlotte Bobcats)
  • 2003: Darko Miicic (Detroit Pistons)- BUST
  • 2002: Jay Williams (Chicago Bulls)- BUST
  • 2001: Tyson Chandler (LA Clippers)
  • 2000: Stromile Swift (Vancouver Grizzlies)- BUST
  • 1999: Steve Francis (Vancouver Grizzlies)

#3 PICK (5.8% chance): In any other year this would be a real blessing.

But this year? Not too exciting, but who knows?

  • 2008: O.J. Mayo (Minnesota Timberwolves)
  • 2007: Al Horford (Atlanta Hawks)
  • 2006: Adam Morrison (Charlotte Bobcats)- BUST
  • 2005: Deron WIlliams (Utah Jazz)
  • 2004: Ben Gordon (Chicago Bulls)
  • 2003: Carmelo Anthony (Denver Nuggets)
  • 2002: Mike Dunleavy (Golden State Warriors)- BUST
  • 2001: Pau Gasol (Vancouver Grizzlies)
  • 2000: Darius Miles (LA Clippers)- BUST
  • 1999: Baron Davis (Charlotte Hornets)
  • #7 PICK (60.0% chance): We tanked it for this one.

    Thanks to that marvelous extra tanking by Nellie and crew this is where the Warriors are currently slotted. If the Warriors don't move up to one of the top 3 spots and none of the teams below them move up they'll be drafting here.

    Just for reference here are the last 10 players drafted at the #7 spot:

    • 2008: Eric Gordon (LA Clippers)
    • 2007: Corey Brewer (Minnesota Timberwolves)
    • 2006: Randy Foye (Minnesota Timberwolves)- BUST
    • 2005: Charlie Villanueva (Toronto Raptors)
    • 2004: Luol Deng (Phoenix Suns)
    • 2003: Kirk Hinrich (Chicago Bulls)
    • 2002: Nene Hilario (Denver Nuggets)
    • 2001: Eddie Griffin (New Jersey Nets)- BUST
    • 2000: Chris Mihm (Chicago Bulls)- BUST
    • 1999: Richard Hamilton (Washington Wizards)

    #8 PICK (23.2% chance): Moving down...

  • 2008: Joe Alexander (Milwaukee Bucks)
  • 2007: Brandan Wright (Charlotte Bobcats)
  • 2006: Rudy Gay (Houston Rockets)
  • 2005: Channing Frye (New York Knicks)
  • 2004: Rafael Araujo (Toronto Raptors)- BUST
  • 2003: T.J. Ford (Milwaukee Bucks)
  • 2002: Chris WIlcox (LA Clippers)
  • 2001: DeSagana Diop (Cleveland Cavaliers)
  • 2000: Jamal Crawford (Cleveland Cavaliers)
  • 1999: Andre Miller (Cleveland Cavaliers)
  • #9 PICK (1.8% chance): 2 teams leap-frogged the Warriors.

  • 2008: D.J. Augustin (Charlotte Bobcats)
  • 2007: Joakim Noah (Chicago Bulls)
  • 2006: Patrick O'Bryant (Golden State Warriors)- BUST
  • 2005: Ike Diogu (Golden State Warriors)- BUST
  • 2004: Andre Iguodala (Philadelphia 76ers)
  • 2003: Michael Sweetney (New York Knicks)- BUST
  • 2002: Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix Suns)
  • 2001: Rodney White (Detroit Pistons)- BUST
  • 2000: Joel Przybilla (Houston Rockets)
  • 1999: Shawn Marion (Phoenix Suns)
  • #10 PICK (less than 0.01% chance): God is not a Warriors fan

    This would mean THREE teams with better records this past season and consequently worse lottery odds for a top 3 pick moved up ahead of the Warriors. This would mean the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery went something like this: 1) New York Knicks, 2) Phoenix Suns, and 3) Charlotte Bobcats. Looks funny huh?

    Here's the last 10 #10 picks:

  • 2008: Brook Lopez (New Jersey Nets)
  • 2007: Spencer Hawes (Sacramento Kings)
  • 2006: Mouhamed Sene (Seattle SuperSonics)- BUST
  • 2005: Andrew Bynum (LA Lakers)
  • 2004: Luke Jackson (Cleveland Cavaliers)- BUST
  • 2003: Jarvis Hayes (Washington Wizards)
  • 2002: Caron Butler (Miami Heat)
  • 2001: Joe Johnson (Boston Celtics)
  • 2000: Kenyon Dooling (Orlando Magic)- BUST
  • 1999: Jason Terry (Atlanta Hawks)
  • On a side note, it's too bad the Golden State Warriors unlike the NY Times didn't pay attention to Polling GSoM. We wanted Thunder to rep the Dubs in Secaucus, NJ, but it looks like new GM Larry Riley will be manning the ship. I would've loved to see Thunder, but I wish Riley the best.


    It's PLAYOFF TIME in the Bay!

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