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NBA Draft Lottery 2011: Envisioning a very small piece of pie.

NBA Draft Lottery: Tonight 5:30 PM PST


Read it and weep, Warriors fans. Needless to say, these probability pies were much more appetizing-looking this time last year, when, thanks to our stirring victory in the Epic Coin Toss v. Washington, we were sitting in the #4 slot — now occupied by Washington — and looking at a 38% shot at a Top 3 pick and realistic worst-case scenario of #6. We all know how well that worked out for us, but man, before the numbers were drawn, it was hella fun to fantasize. Not surprisingly, the lotto thread this time last year was one of the more entertaining in recent memory. (The witty graphic contributions of Lat We N Trash and Bimbo Coles Experience in particular are etched on my brain). Definitely worth a flashback if anyone has 15 minutes to kill. Jump for more.

This year, with the odds of a Top 3 pick a vanishing 2.9%, there's really not much point in fantasizing. On the bright side, there's not much chance of having our hearts crushed, right? Well, actually ... not that it would be particularly crushing, but it should probably be noted that the Warriors have a much better shot at slipping to #12 (6.3%) than they do of hitting lotto. And for the real black-cloud types ... there's even a non-zero shot at plucking lucky #13. Here, to save you trouble of finding a magnifying glass, here's a closer look at all our chances:


Hmmm, actually, at that size, the chances don't look too bad. 2.9% for the win!!!

Feel free to use this thread to discuss anything related to the lottery, luck, probability, superstition, the graphic display of information, Kyrie Irving, and/or pie.

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