Game Thread #12: Golden State Warriors At Detroit Pistons - Let's Hope For Less Ugly

Golden State Warriors (3-8) vs Detroit Pistons (3-9)

TV: CSN Bay Area / Radio: KTCT 1050

Tip-Off: 3 pm PST

Blog Buddy: Detroit Bad Boys

There's a lot more that could be said about just how ugly the Warriors' 112-100 loss to the Charlotte Bobcats was last night.

Put simply, they looked like a team struggling to find answers to solve the fifth worst offense in the NBA. And that's putting it relatively nicely. Coach Mark Jackson wasn't so kind about his team's performance, according to Marcus Thompson II: "We let them do whatever they wanted to do."

And the game was no more watchable than it was encouraging.

But the reality of this year's compressed NBA schedule is that teams have to just put games like that behind them and move on. That's what we might hope to see from the Warriors this afternoon as they take on the Detroit Pistons today, less than 24 hours after last night's debacle.

This is a Pistons team that just broke a six-game losing streak on Friday night by beating the Bobcats team that beat down the Warriors. So yes, they just beat the team that beat the Warriors. But no, they're still not that good.

Key statistic: Offensive rebounding

In terms of offensive efficiency, there are only three teams in the NBA worse than the Bobcats. The Pistons are tied with them. Yet the Pistons are an above average offensive rebounding and have beaten their opponents on the offensive boards pretty badly in all three of their wins, including wins against the two below average offensive rebounding teams that just beat the Warriors (Bobcats and Magic). That could be one significant difference between the Bobcats and Pistons for the Warriors today.

The main culprit is Greg Monroe who is averaging nearly 4 offensive rebounds per game and is .8 total rebounds away from averaging a double-double. Jonas Jerebko led the team with 4 against the Bobcats and another of their top rebounders - Jason Maxiell - didn't even play due to coach's decision.

The Warriors are thin in the post right now and missing the defensive rebounding presence of Kwame Brown, but they need to find a way to battle inside.

Predictions

• The Warriors are 2-2 (wins vs Chicago & Miami; losses to Charlotte & San Antonio) when they turn the ball over less often (i.e. have a lower turnover rate) than opponents. The Pistons have the highest turnover rate in the league as of right now (16.3%) at the league's slowest pace (87.2 possessions per 48 minutes). This will be the fifth game that they have a lower turnover rate than opponents. That is, if the Warriors are truly the defensive-minded team that they claim to be and were decidedly not last night
• Monta Ellis will make more than six shots tonight. Really, he has to if the Warriors expect to win games given the current state of affairs. But that aside, he got a number of good shots last night against the Bobcats' defense that just didn't go down. The Pistons are no better a defensive team than the Bobcats.
  
• The Pistons will give the Warriors trouble on the offensive boards today and the Warriors will find themselves in foul trouble once again.
• Ekpe Udoh will play more than the 11 minutes he played last night - possibly due to foul trouble - to beat this team and he will have to rebound well for the Warriors to win this one.
• There's not much more to say about Greg Monroe's performance so far this season than what Zach Lowe of SI.com has already said. At some point in today's game, there's a good chance he'll make us wonder what could've been had we drafted him.

Ultimately, what I want to see is the Warriors showing up and just turning in a better performance than they did last night. That should happen because they can't play much worse than they did through three quarters last night. But with the quick turnaround and the Pistons capable of controlling the boards against the Warriors, this could be a 2-3 possession loss in Michigan.