:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/imported_assets/1032099/2012-03-30_23-44-36_9.jpg)
I updated my Vegas ratings this morning. The Warriors are in pretty bad shape on the court, but good shape with respect to their chances of keeping that lottery pick. Read on for the nitty gritty.
Solid line represents full-season Vegas ratings. Dashed line represents ratings for games played since trade deadline.
Golden State Warriors
That's a tough schedule. Only 1 projected win from here on out.
|
GAME |
DATE |
HOMESYM |
OPP |
SPREAD |
WIN |
|
54 |
Fri Apr 6 2012 |
@ |
-7.02 |
0 |
|
|
55 |
Sat Apr 7 2012 |
|
-3.36 |
0 |
|
|
56 |
Mon Apr 9 2012 |
@ |
Denver Nuggets |
-9.36 |
0 |
|
57 |
Wed Apr 11 2012 |
@ |
-7.90 |
0 |
|
|
58 |
Thu Apr 12 2012 |
|
-3.93 |
0 |
|
|
59 |
Sat Apr 14 2012 |
@ |
-9.57 |
0 |
|
|
60 |
Mon Apr 16 2012 |
|
-5.58 |
0 |
|
|
61 |
Wed Apr 18 2012 |
|
-5.54 |
0 |
|
|
62 |
Fri Apr 20 2012 |
@ |
Dallas Mavericks |
-9.93 |
0 |
|
63 |
Sat Apr 21 2012 |
@ |
-7.11 |
0 |
|
|
64 |
Sun Apr 22 2012 |
@ |
-6.32 |
0 |
|
|
65 |
Tue Apr 24 2012 |
|
3.67 |
1 |
|
|
66 |
Thu Apr 26 2012 |
|
San Antonio Spurs |
-5.58 |
0 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
2 projected wins.
|
GAME |
DATE |
HOMESYM |
OPP |
SPREAD |
WIN |
|
52 |
Wed Apr 4 2012 |
@ |
-9.57 |
0 |
|
|
53 |
Fri Apr 6 2012 |
@ |
-4.09 |
0 |
|
|
54 |
Sun Apr 8 2012 |
@ |
-3.77 |
0 |
|
|
55 |
Tue Apr 10 2012 |
|
6.17 |
1 |
|
|
56 |
Wed Apr 11 2012 |
|
-4.02 |
0 |
|
|
57 |
Fri Apr 13 2012 |
@ |
Indiana Pacers |
-10.02 |
0 |
|
58 |
Sat Apr 14 2012 |
@ |
-1.37 |
0 |
|
|
59 |
Sun Apr 15 2012 |
|
-5.92 |
0 |
|
|
60 |
Tue Apr 17 2012 |
@ |
-5.74 |
0 |
|
|
61 |
Wed Apr 18 2012 |
|
-5.62 |
0 |
|
|
62 |
Fri Apr 20 2012 |
|
-4.02 |
0 |
|
|
63 |
Sun Apr 22 2012 |
@ |
San Antonio Spurs |
-12.73 |
0 |
|
64 |
Mon Apr 23 2012 |
@ |
-10.15 |
0 |
|
|
65 |
Wed Apr 25 2012 |
|
Washington Wizards |
4.63 |
1 |
|
66 |
Thu Apr 26 2012 |
@ |
-13.40 |
0 |
New Jersey Nets
2 projected wins.
|
GAME |
DATE |
HOMESYM |
OPP |
SPREAD |
WIN |
|
56 |
Wed Apr 4 2012 |
@ |
Portland Trail Blazers |
-8.28 |
0 |
|
57 |
Fri Apr 6 2012 |
|
Washington Wizards |
5.40 |
1 |
|
58 |
Sun Apr 8 2012 |
|
Cleveland Cavaliers |
3.77 |
1 |
|
59 |
Tue Apr 10 2012 |
|
Philadelphia 76ers |
-4.85 |
0 |
|
60 |
Fri Apr 13 2012 |
@ |
Philadelphia 76ers |
-10.85 |
0 |
|
61 |
Sat Apr 14 2012 |
|
-2.27 |
0 |
|
|
62 |
Mon Apr 16 2012 |
|
-9.24 |
0 |
|
|
63 |
Wed Apr 18 2012 |
|
New York Knicks |
-3.25 |
0 |
|
64 |
Sat Apr 21 2012 |
@ |
Milwaukee Bucks |
-8.80 |
0 |
|
65 |
Mon Apr 23 2012 |
|
Philadelphia 76ers |
-4.85 |
0 |
|
66 |
Thu Apr 26 2012 |
@ |
Toronto Raptors |
-3.32 |
0 |
Toronto Raptors
2 projected wins (seeing a pattern here?).
|
GAME |
DATE |
HOMESYM |
OPP |
SPREAD |
WIN |
|
55 |
Wed Apr 4 2012 |
@ |
Philadelphia 76ers |
-10.53 |
0 |
|
56 |
Fri Apr 6 2012 |
|
Cleveland Cavaliers |
4.09 |
1 |
|
57 |
Sun Apr 8 2012 |
@ |
-13.53 |
0 |
|
|
58 |
Mon Apr 9 2012 |
@ |
Indiana Pacers |
-8.93 |
0 |
|
59 |
Wed Apr 11 2012 |
|
Philadelphia 76ers |
-4.53 |
0 |
|
60 |
Fri Apr 13 2012 |
|
Boston Celtics |
-1.95 |
0 |
|
61 |
Sun Apr 15 2012 |
@ |
-6.77 |
0 |
|
|
62 |
Mon Apr 16 2012 |
|
Atlanta Hawks |
-0.77 |
0 |
|
63 |
Wed Apr 18 2012 |
@ |
Miami Heat |
-14.92 |
0 |
|
64 |
Sun Apr 22 2012 |
@ |
Detroit Pistons |
-4.65 |
0 |
|
65 |
Mon Apr 23 2012 |
@ |
Milwaukee Bucks |
-8.48 |
0 |
|
66 |
Thu Apr 26 2012 |
|
New Jersey Nets |
3.32 |
1 |
Sacramento Kings
Just 1 win.
|
GAME |
DATE |
HOMESYM |
OPP |
SPREAD |
WIN |
|
55 |
Thu Apr 5 2012 |
|
Los Angeles Clippers |
-2.70 |
0 |
|
56 |
Sat Apr 7 2012 |
@ |
Los Angeles Clippers |
-8.70 |
0 |
|
57 |
Sun Apr 8 2012 |
|
Houston Rockets |
-0.24 |
0 |
|
58 |
Tue Apr 10 2012 |
@ |
Dallas Mavericks |
-9.06 |
0 |
|
59 |
Wed Apr 11 2012 |
@ |
New Orleans Hornets |
-1.46 |
0 |
|
60 |
Fri Apr 13 2012 |
@ |
Oklahoma City Thunder |
-12.60 |
0 |
|
61 |
Sun Apr 15 2012 |
|
Portland Trail Blazers |
-1.03 |
0 |
|
62 |
Wed Apr 18 2012 |
|
San Antonio Spurs |
-4.71 |
0 |
|
63 |
Fri Apr 20 2012 |
|
Oklahoma City Thunder |
-6.60 |
0 |
|
64 |
Sun Apr 22 2012 |
@ |
Charlotte Bobcats |
2.19 |
1 |
|
65 |
Tue Apr 24 2012 |
@ |
Oklahoma City Thunder |
-12.60 |
0 |
|
66 |
Thu Apr 26 2012 |
|
Los Angeles Lakers |
-4.67 |
0 |
Detroit Pistons
Detroit has the easiest remaining schedule and 5 predicted wins.
|
GAME |
DATE |
HOMESYM |
OPP |
SPREAD |
WIN |
|
54 |
Thu Apr 5 2012 |
|
Washington Wizards |
7.37 |
1 |
|
55 |
Fri Apr 6 2012 |
@ |
Atlanta Hawks |
-5.12 |
0 |
|
56 |
Sun Apr 8 2012 |
@ |
Miami Heat |
-13.27 |
0 |
|
57 |
Mon Apr 9 2012 |
@ |
Orlando Magic |
-9.18 |
0 |
|
58 |
Thu Apr 12 2012 |
@ |
Charlotte Bobcats |
2.91 |
1 |
|
59 |
Fri Apr 13 2012 |
|
Milwaukee Bucks |
-0.83 |
0 |
|
60 |
Sun Apr 15 2012 |
|
Chicago Bulls |
-4.66 |
0 |
|
61 |
Tue Apr 17 2012 |
|
Cleveland Cavaliers |
5.74 |
1 |
|
62 |
Wed Apr 18 2012 |
@ |
Atlanta Hawks |
-5.12 |
0 |
|
63 |
Thu Apr 19 2012 |
|
Minnesota Timberwolves |
1.27 |
1 |
|
64 |
Sun Apr 22 2012 |
|
Toronto Raptors |
4.65 |
1 |
|
65 |
Mon Apr 23 2012 |
@ |
Indiana Pacers |
-7.28 |
0 |
|
66 |
Thu Apr 26 2012 |
|
Philadelphia 76ers |
-2.88 |
0 |
Final Tank Projections
As of right now, it looks likely that we will definitely pass Detroit. In the following table, CW = current wins and PW = projected wins based on the above results.
|
FINISH |
TEAM |
CW |
PW |
|
4 |
CLE |
17 |
19 |
|
5 |
SAC |
19 |
20 |
|
6 |
GSW |
20 |
21 |
|
6 |
NJN |
19 |
21 |
|
6 |
TOR |
19 |
21 |
|
9 |
DET |
20 |
25 |
In case of tied records, you may be interested to know how things are settled (perhaps, not what you thought):
In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination(s). The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.