Survey Showdown: Rookies vs. General Managers

For the past several years, the NBA has done pre-season surveys of the incoming rookies and the GMs. I thought it would be fun to look at the questions that were posed to both and see which group had better judgement. Clearly, the men whose job it is to make judgements about talent and have mountains of data at their disposal should know better than a bunch of not-even-always-twenty-something rookies, right? Then again, "No one knows the rookies, though, like the rookies themselves." (link) Let's see. Join me after the jump.

I couldn't find the 2008-2009 or 2011-12 rookie surveys (maybe they skipped it), so I'll be looking at three seasons here.

2007-2008

Who will be the Rookie of the Year?

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	Kevin Durant	53.5	Kevin Durant	92.6
2	Greg Oden	11.6	Al Horford	3.7
3	Corey Brewer	4.7	Rodney Stuckey	3.7
4	Jeff Green	4.7
5	Acie Law	4.7
6	Al Thornton	4.7

Both got this right, although way too many rookies voted for bad players. The GM survey took place after Oden got hurt, though, so we might discount this one a bit.

Which rookie will be the best in 5 years/Play in the most All-Star games?

(Slightly different questions asked to each group, but these were the most similar.)

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	Kevin Durant	55.8	Kevin Durant	74.1
2	Greg Oden	32.6	Greg Oden	22.2
3	Others	11.6	Rodney Stuckey	3.7

GM's did somewhat better here. The GM who voted for Stuckey is obviously no longer working in the NBA.

Which player is the most athletic?

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	Al Thornton	31.8	Al Thornton	23.1
2	Nick Young	15.9	Kevin Durant	19.2
3	Sean Williams	9.1	Mike Conley	11.5
4	Julian Wright	9.1	D.J. Strawberry	7.7
5	Thaddeus Young	9.1	Sean Williams	7.7

This one is puzzling. GM's got the better player at #2, but Nick Young *is* arguably more athletic. Just doesn't use it like KD does. Hmm.

Which rookie is being the most overlooked/biggest sleeper?

(Once again, similar but slightly different questions being asked.)

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	Nick Young	15.8	Rodney Stuckey	29.6
2	Al Thornton	10.5	Marco Belinelli	18.5
3	Aaron Brooks	7.9	Jared Dudley	11.1
4	Jared Dudley	7.9	Gabe Pruitt	7.4
5	Jeff Green	7.9	Luis Scola	7.4
6			Al Thornton	7.4

I guess I have to go with the GM's on this one, but they didn't really get it "right". Notice the absence of Joakim Noah, Thaddeus Young, Wilson Chandler, Arron Afflalo, Carl Landry, and Marc Gasol. I guess sleepers are really sleepers for a reason.

2009-2010

Who will win the Rookie of the Year?

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	Blake Griffin	54.8	Blake Griffin	79.3
2	Jonny Flynn	12.9	Jonny Flynn	10.3
3	James Harden	12.9	Tyreke Evans	6.9
4	Stephen Curry	6.5	Stephen Curry	3.4

Of course, Blake got injured so this one doesn't mean too much. Props to the rookies for having Harden on their radar. Both sides whiffed on Jonny Flynn.

Which rookie will have the best career/be the best in 5 years?

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	Blake Griffin	20.6	Blake Griffin	65.5
2	Jonny Flynn	11.8	Tyreke Evans	10.3
3	James Harden	11.8	James Harden	10.3

Looks like the GM's score a clear victory here. Jonny Flynn. #smh

Which rookie is being the most overlooked/sleeper success?

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	DeJuan Blair	15.6	James Harden	11.1
2	Toney Douglas	9.4	Brandon Jennings	11.1
3	Jrue Holiday	9.4	Ty Lawson	11.1
4	DaJuan Summers	9.4	Rodrigue Beaubois	7.4
5	Sam Young	9.4	DeJuan Blair	7.4
6	Taylor Griffin	6.3	Austin Daye	7.4
7	James Johnson	6.3	Jodie Meeks	7.4
8	Ty Lawson	6.3	Terrence Williams	7.4

Ok, either the GM's killed it by picking Harden, or the rookies were like, "Uh, dude, Harden was picked 3rd. How is he a sleeper?" I'm kind of leaning toward the latter.

Which rookie is the most athletic?

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	DeMar DeRozan	47.1	Blake Griffin	42.9
2	Terrence Williams	20.6	DeMar DeRozan	32.1
3	Blake Griffin	14.7	Terrence Williams	10.7
4	Jonny Flynn	5.9	Brandon Jennings	7.1
5	Sam Young	5.9

Interesting once again that this question has significantly different responses. My guess is that the rookies look at this as "most athletic period" whereas the GM's read it "most athletic for their size/position". I can't really disagree with either side.

2010-2011

Which player will win Rookie of the Year?

ROOKIES		GM
Player	%	Player	%
John Wall	38.5	John Wall	67.9
Blake Griffin	23.1	Blake Griffin	28.6
DeMarcus Cousins	12.8	Wesley Johnson	3.6
Wesley Johnson	7.7

Well, a few more GM's picked Blake Griffin, but this is pretty much a push.

Which rookie will have the best career/be best in 5 years?

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	John Wall	23.7	John Wall	67.9
2	DeMarcus Cousins	13.2	DeMarcus Cousins	10.7
3	Blake Griffin	13.2	Blake Griffin	10.7
4	Derrick Favors	10.5	Derrick Favors	7.1
5	Evan Turner	7.9	Evan Turner	3.6
6	Wesley Johnson	5.3
7	Greg Monroe	5.3
8	Larry Sanders	5.3

Well, it looks like both sides might miss on this prediction, as Blake Griffin almost immediately vaulted to the top of the class. You never know what might happen down the road, though. I wonder if some smart GM (one of the 3 that voted for Griffin) could have made the steal of the decade before the season started. Clearly, he was undervalued at the time.

Which rookie is being the most overlooked/sleeper?

	ROOKIES		GM
RANK	Player	%	Player	%
1	Lance Stephenson	17.9	Luke Harangody	11.1
2	Luke Babbitt	10.3	Patrick Patterson	11.1
3	Devin Ebanks	7.7	Derrick Favors	7.4
4	Jeremy Lin	6.4	Paul George	7.4
5	Craig Brackins	5.1	Damion James	7.4
6	Paul George	5.1	Greg Monroe	7.4
7	Jordan Crawford	3.8

Rookies picked Jeremy Lin!!! And Landry Fields also was listed under "others receiving votes" on the rookie survey.

Ok, other than that, Luke Harangody? Devin Ebanks? Damion James? Neither side should be bragging here. How is Derrick Favors a "sleeper"? No GM voted for Fields.

Conclusion

Did the GM's perform obviously and significantly better than the rookies? Um, not really. I was expecting more. Oh, who am I fooling - no I didn't. I'm sure you didn't either.