While debating whether I should try to make an open gym tonight or hole up and geek out over the draft, a co-worker offered the following advice.
Well, you already know who's gonna be drafted, right? You already know who the good college players are.
Although I appreciate the appeal to my ego, I don't think anyone knows who's going to go where tonight.
In fact, I don't even think the teams themselves know who's going to go where.
Take Thon Maker, for example.
Earlier today, I caught this tweet from Jake Fischer of SI.
Several teams have entirely ruled Thon Maker out of the first round due to his age. Multiple sources believe Maker to be 21-23, not 19.— Jake Fischer (@JakeLFischer) June 23, 2016
And then less than an hour ago, Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted this.
One prospect on enough draft room boards to believe that he'll go in first-round: Seven-footer Thon Maker.— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojVerticalNBA) June 23, 2016
I'm not trying to say either of those tweets are wrong — really, they're not mutually exclusive.
But the point is that there is absolutely no consensus on players who have been scrutinized for months now. Maker is a crazy athletic player coming from the high school ranks who moves like a much smaller man.
If Thon Maker is 22 or 23 so what. He's still 7-1 and can do this. https://t.co/k4x0M0vDJg— Chris Martin Palmer (@ChrisPalmerNBA) June 23, 2016
In other words, this isn't necessarily a draft filled with superstars but players with enormous upside could fall to the second round. And teams will be figuring out what they want to do with their future up until the moment they make their pick.
We never have any real idea about who "wins" a draft in the short-term, but this year is even more unpredictable than usual — we neither know who the top players are outside the top 10 nor how to project guys like Maker who has created a steady buzz.
Have fun discussing it — we'll be here all night. And here's a little draft tracker widget so you can keep up: