How Much Better Is Shooting when a Teammate Assists?

My question seemed simple. If a player receives a pass and shoots such that it would be an assisted shot, some percentage of the time the shot goes in the basket. If a player shoots unassisted, he also has a percentage when he makes it. What are these percentages, and how do they differ? A straightforward question and, I presumed an important one.

However, I did not find answers readily available. Therefore, after becoming frustrated, I did some calculations to see what I could derive from the numbers that I was able to find at such places as NBA.com, Basketball Reference, ESPN, and 82minutes. Holding my effort to a tolerable level, I did the calculations for NBA teams in 2015-16.

Reading the table below from left to right, passes are made; most are received; some shots are taken that have the potential to be assisted makes; and if made, this is an assisted shot that scores points. [Full Table with all teams is in Annex.] The percentage at which potentially assisted shots are made I call Potentially Assisted Field Goal percentage (Potential AST FG%). For the league, this number is 0.504. From NBA.com’s perspective, one other way exists to create points from a pass, the receiver if he is fouled and makes at least one free throw. NBA.com calls this a free throw assist (FT AST). [Foul must occur on within 4 seconds and 2 dribbles after pass and if a shot must is taken, it be missed.] Assists ultimately result in points (AST PTS Created).

The highest Potentially Assisted FG% were by GSW, 0.545; SAS, 0.540; MIL, 0.538; and CLE, 0.526. These were different from the best percentages for unassisted shots MIA, 0.432; OKC, 0.429; UTA, 0.429; IND, 0.420; and SAS, 0.416. Some of the differences in the offenses of the teams on these lists of highest teams appear to relate to their offensive schemes and habits. Cause and effect could be either the schemes yield assisted or unassisted shots or the degree to which the teams play was adjusted to the skills (or desires) of the players for creating their own shots.

The last two columns provide comparison to unassisted shots, the percentage made and how much better the potentially assisted percentage is than for unassisted shots. For the league 0.504 - 0.394 = 0.110, so shots when a teammate would earn an assist has had much better results than when players created their own shot opportunity unassisted. The maximum difference was for NOP, 0.154, and the minimum was a surprisingly small 0.039 for UTA. The highest differences were for (high to low) NOP, MIL, GSW, CHI, DEN, and CLE. The lowest differences were for (low to high) UTA, IND, NYK, MIA, and PHO.

Selected Teams – Full Table with all teams in Annex

Team 2015-16	Passes Made	Passes Received	Potential AST	AST	AST/ PotentialAST = Potential AST FG%	FT AST	AST PTS Created	UAST FG%	Potential AST -UAST FG%
BOS	25789	25728	4029	1947	0.483	202	4621	0.375	0.108
CLE	24614	24550	3539	1861	0.526	185	4576	0.391	0.135
GSW	26491	26447	4354	2373	0.545	235	5743	0.398	0.147
LAC	23712	23657	3572	1873	0.524	192	4482	0.398	0.126
OKC	21650	21596	3614	1883	0.521	186	4388	0.429	0.092
POR	23347	23289	3506	1748	0.499	199	4276	0.402	0.097
SAS	27196	27155	3724	2010	0.540	149	4613	0.416	0.124
TOR	24741	24685	3004	1516	0.505	152	3714	0.401	0.104
UTA	29097	29038	3322	1554	0.468	189	3789	0.429	0.039
League	747761	746091	108541	54728	0.504	5597	130190	0.394	0.110

Derived from data at NBA.com

[More concerning unassisted shots is in the Annex.]

I wanted to investigate the Potentially Assisted FG% separately for 2- and 3-point shots. I can tell you that the league takes only slightly more assisted than unassisted 2-pointers (4% more) and many more assisted 3-pointer than unassisted (5.166 times more). [These and related stats for individual teams are in the Annex.]

Regarding Potentially Assisted FG%, what I could find were numbers for catch and shoot and pull up 3-point shots that I could compare. While these ignore shots where the player caught the ball and held it for more than 2 seconds before shooting, I felt it provided a reasonably generalizable comparison between assisted and unassisted 3-point shots. League-wide players shot 37.2% on catch and shoot 3-pointers and 30.9% on pull up 3-pointers – a difference of 6.3%. The table below provides individual team numbers for selected teams. Numbers for all teams are in the Annex.

	Catch and Shoot			Pull Up			Catch and Shoot - Pull up	Catch and Shoot Ratio to Pull up
Team	3PM	3PA	3P%	3PM	3PA	3P%	3P%	3PA
BOS	542	1568	34.6	157	508	30.9	3.7	3.087
CLE	681	1755	38.8	181	607	29.8	9	2.891
GSW	776	1810	42.9	289	739	39.1	3.8	2.449
LAC	568	1477	38.5	211	666	31.7	6.8	2.218
OKC	466	1277	36.5	202	632	32	4.5	2.021
POR	625	1629	38.4	221	655	33.7	4.7	2.487
SAS	484	1230	39.3	79	266	29.7	9.6	4.624
TOR	571	1429	40	124	427	29	11	3.347
UTA	538	1413	38.1	152	508	29.9	8.2	2.781
League	16078	43269	37.2	4517	14611	30.9	6.3	2.961

Derived from data at NBA.com

CONCLUSION

Certainly, no one is surprised that potentially assisted shots have gone in at a higher percentage than unassisted shots. However, some may be surprised by the magnitude of the difference 11%, 50.4% versus 39.4% league wide. In addition, to me it is interesting to have values for these percentages and the others covered above for teams of interest and see differences across teams.

ANNEX

Potentially Assisted versus Unassisted

Team 2015-16	Passes Made	Passes Received	Potential AST	AST	AST/ PotentialAST = Potential AST FG%	FT AST	AST PTS Created	UAST FG%	Potential AST -UAST FG%
ATL	26606	26555	4132	2100	0.508	152	5019	0.383	0.125
BOS	25789	25728	4029	1947	0.483	202	4621	0.375	0.108
BRK	23943	23891	3641	1829	0.502	172	4211	0.399	0.103
CHA	25214	25163	3697	1778	0.481	197	4425	0.39	0.091
CHI	25461	25412	3643	1870	0.513	171	4416	0.367	0.146
CLE	24614	24550	3539	1861	0.526	185	4576	0.391	0.135
DAL	27244	27191	3740	1813	0.485	201	4448	0.396	0.089
DEN	23845	23785	3666	1858	0.507	198	4358	0.37	0.137
DET	22591	22524	3210	1594	0.497	186	3877	0.391	0.106
GSW	26491	26447	4354	2373	0.545	235	5743	0.398	0.147
HOU	23617	23569	3607	1821	0.505	209	4443	0.393	0.112
IND	25060	25008	3648	1741	0.477	209	4128	0.420	0.057
LAC	23712	23657	3572	1873	0.524	192	4482	0.398	0.126
LAL	23102	23042	3037	1478	0.487	153	3504	0.358	0.129
MEM	25163	25105	3431	1697	0.495	190	3954	0.386	0.109
MIA	24790	24709	3362	1709	0.508	170	3968	0.432	0.076
MIL	23898	23830	3522	1895	0.538	204	4296	0.388	0.150
MIN	23270	23227	3670	1916	0.522	211	4361	0.393	0.129
NOP	24040	23987	3454	1818	0.526	180	4322	0.372	0.154
NYK	28216	28161	3577	1682	0.47	186	4020	0.405	0.065
OKC	21650	21596	3614	1883	0.521	186	4388	0.429	0.092
ORL	24933	24884	3834	1905	0.497	147	4441	0.398	0.099
PHI	27259	27206	3663	1765	0.482	173	4273	0.374	0.108
PHO	25585	25522	3572	1701	0.476	167	4115	0.392	0.084
POR	23347	23289	3506	1748	0.499	199	4276	0.402	0.097
SAC	22837	22785	3842	1988	0.517	222	4666	0.393	0.124
SAS	27196	27155	3724	2010	0.540	149	4613	0.416	0.124
TOR	24741	24685	3004	1516	0.505	152	3714	0.401	0.104
UTA	29097	29038	3322	1554	0.468	189	3789	0.429	0.039
WAS	24450	24390	3929	2005	0.510	210	4743	0.397	0.113
League	747761	746091	108541	54728	0.504	5597	130190	0.394	0.110

Derived from data at NBA.com

Unassisted and related information

Team 2015-16	UAST FGA	UAST FGM	UAST FG%	Est. 2FGM AST	Est. 2FGM UAST	Est. AST/UAST 2FGM	Est. 3FGM AST	Est. 3FGM UAST	Est. AST/ UAST 3FGM
ATL	2791	1068	0.383	1369	984	1.392	730	85	8.615
BOS	3289	1235	0.375	1364	1135	1.203	616	101	6.092
BRK	3279	1307	0.399	1381	1224	1.128	448	83	5.410
CHA	3225	1258	0.390	1043	1120	0.931	735	138	5.329
CHI	3527	1295	0.367	1295	1219	1.062	576	75	7.696
CLE	3349	1310	0.391	1102	1189	0.927	759	121	6.299
DAL	3160	1251	0.396	1129	1129	1.000	685	121	5.667
DEN	3337	1235	0.370	1323	1114	1.188	534	122	4.376
DET	3877	1517	0.391	1001	1370	0.730	594	146	4.076
GSW	2805	1116	0.398	1510	902	1.674	863	214	4.025
HOU	3240	1273	0.393	1126	1090	1.033	696	182	3.831
IND	3337	1401	0.420	1207	1272	0.949	533	130	4.102
LAC	3187	1268	0.398	1233	1111	1.110	639	158	4.051
LAL	3919	1402	0.358	1008	1233	0.818	469	170	2.759
MEM	3428	1322	0.386	1263	1252	1.008	434	70	6.194
MIA	3335	1441	0.432	1246	1406	0.887	462	36	12.889
MIL	3218	1250	0.388	1501	1204	1.247	395	45	8.804
MIN	2998	1179	0.393	1526	1114	1.370	390	65	5.993
NOP	3586	1335	0.372	1250	1201	1.041	568	134	4.236
NYK	3309	1340	0.405	1151	1261	0.912	531	79	6.692
OKC	3468	1489	0.429	1369	1325	1.033	514	164	3.132
ORL	3286	1309	0.398	1376	1230	1.119	556	80	6.937
PHI	3224	1205	0.374	1105	1101	1.004	659	105	6.299
PHO	3446	1350	0.392	1087	1226	0.887	614	124	4.952
POR	3534	1419	0.402	1080	1223	0.883	667	197	3.386
SAC	3241	1274	0.393	1443	1180	1.222	566	94	6.042
SAS	3073	1279	0.416	1493	1226	1.217	516	54	9.526
TOR	3665	1470	0.401	919	1379	0.667	616	92	6.692
UTA	3271	1403	0.429	982	1281	0.767	571	123	4.650
WAS	3104	1233	0.397	1386	1143	1.212	619	90	6.874
League	99508	39234	0.394	37268	35844	1.040	17555	3398	5.166

Derived from data at NBA.com

Catch and Shoot versus Pull Up 3-Point Shots

	Catch and Shoot	Catch and Shoot	Catch and Shoot	Pull Up	Pull Up	Pull Up	Catch and Shoot - Pull up	Catch and Shoot Ratio to Pull up
Team	3PM	3PA	3P%	3PM	3PA	3P%	3P%	3PA
ATL	668	1800	37.1	141	493	28.6	8.5	3.651
BOS	542	1568	34.6	157	508	30.9	3.7	3.087
BRK	406	1114	36.4	114	366	31.1	5.3	3.044
CHA	696	1827	38.1	176	567	31	7.1	3.222
CHI	535	1354	39.5	107	361	29.6	9.9	3.751
CLE	681	1755	38.8	181	607	29.8	9	2.891
DAL	627	1707	36.7	166	593	28	8.7	2.879
DEN	495	1393	35.5	152	506	30	5.5	2.753
DET	559	1516	36.9	172	579	29.7	7.2	2.618
GSW	776	1810	42.9	289	739	39.1	3.8	2.449
HOU	630	1733	36.4	228	735	31	5.4	2.358
IND	500	1356	36.9	155	500	31	5.9	2.712
LAC	568	1477	38.5	211	666	31.7	6.8	2.218
LAL	390	1175	33.2	225	744	30.2	3	1.579
MEM	402	1162	34.6	90	317	28.4	6.2	3.666
MIA	437	1234	35.4	60	221	27.1	8.3	5.584
MIL	366	1009	36.3	68	238	28.6	7.7	4.239
MIN	339	968	35	109	342	31.9	3.1	2.83
NOP	485	1331	36.4	201	575	35	1.4	2.315
NYK	486	1345	36.1	108	369	29.3	6.8	3.645
OKC	466	1277	36.5	202	632	32	4.5	2.021
ORL	521	1413	36.9	96	343	28	8.9	4.12
PHI	619	1735	35.7	134	480	27.9	7.8	3.615
PHO	562	1486	37.8	165	566	29.2	8.6	2.625
POR	625	1629	38.4	221	655	33.7	4.7	2.487
SAC	521	1435	36.3	120	351	34.2	2.1	4.088
SAS	484	1230	39.3	79	266	29.7	9.6	4.624
TOR	571	1429	40	124	427	29	11	3.347
UTA	538	1413	38.1	152	508	29.9	8.2	2.781
WAS	583	1588	36.7	114	357	31.9	4.8	4.448
League	16078	43269	37.2	4517	14611	30.9	6.3	2.961

Derived from data at NBA.com

This FanPost is a submission from a member of the mighty Golden State of Mind community. While we're all here to throw up that W, these words do not necessarily reflect the views of the GSoM Crew. Still, chances are the preceding post is Unstoppable Baby!

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