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Will the Warriors’ explosive offense go over the total for the 5th straight game?

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The Warriors have been shooting lights out and return home to face the New Orleans Pelicans as 12 point favorites.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls
Klay Thompson was the latest Warrior to catch fire offensively during their high-scoring road trip.
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

What superlatives are left to describe the Golden State Warriors recent offensive surge during their dominant road trip against Eastern Conference teams?

From Kevin Durant’s epic fourth quarter in Madison Square Garden, Stephen Curry’s record breaking streak of games with at least five three-pointers made to Klay Thompson breaking the record for three-pointers made in a game, the Dubs are shooting with unprecedented accuracy and efficiency, dominating the regular season so far with an enthusiasm and joy that we have not seen since their 73-win season, crushing totals along the way.

On Halloween, the Dubs return home to face former assistant coach Alvin Gentry and the New Orleans Pelicans as 12 point favorites.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: October 31st, 2018 at 7:30 p.m.

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line:

Injuries: Elfrid Payton (ankle) is questionable, Anthony Davis (elbow) is questionable and Darius Miller (quadricep) is questionable for the Pelicans.

Shaun Livingston (foot) is doubtful and DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out for the Warriors.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have lost two in a row without Anthony Davis, most recently 111-116 to Denver, dropping them to 4-2 on the season.

New Orleans is led by Nikola Mirotic in scoring 22.7 points per game while grabbing 9.5 rebounds per game and Jrue Holiday with 7.8 assists per game.

NBA: Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
Nikola Mirotic is leading the Pelicans in scoring and rebounds per game.
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The Pelicans are scoring 122.5 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 118.8 points per game (26th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 7.89 (6th of 30), pace factor of 105.6 (4th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (3rd of 30) and defensive rating of 112.5 (20th of 30).

New Orleans are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and 4-2 to the over/under.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, whether it’s one of their stars or bench players, everyone is doing their part as the Dubs have been scoring like a fast-paced, offensive juggernaut.

Golden State is led by Steph Curry scoring 32.5 points per game, KD with 7.5 rebounds per game and Draymond Green with 8.1 assists per game.

Golden State is scoring 121.7 points per game (1st of 30), conceding 110.8 points per game (12th of 30), earning a SRS score of 11.34 (3rd of 30), pace factor of 102.1 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 121.7 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 108.5 (13th of 30).

The Dubs are 4-4 ATS, having covered 3 of their last 4 ATS, and are 5-3 to the over/under with their last 4 games going over the posted total.

Analysis

Given the Warriors current momentum, we would not feel confident betting against the Dubs or taking their games to go under the total at this current pace.

The Pelicans have covered four of the last six against the Warriors, winning two of those games straight up, though one was a late April game in 2018 of little consequence.

The last six games between these games have gone 3-3 to the over/under, with the last three contests going under the posted total.

Even if Anthony Davis does suit up for the Pelicans on Wednesday, we see this game going like the first game of the 2018 playoffs between these teams, a 22 point Warriors victory that went over the total.

In their last game against the Bulls, we recommended taking the Warriors to go over their team total and the full game to go over the posted total and the Dubs went ahead and scored 149 points in a game with a total of 273 points.

The Dubs can’t keep shooting like this forever but while they are in this groove, taken together with the Pelican’s questionable defense, we will go back to the well and consider taking the Warriors to go over the team total and the full game to go over 234.

Poll

What is your best bet for Pelicans at Warriors on 10/31/18?

This poll is closed

  • 37%
    Warriors -12
    (70 votes)
  • 7%
    Pelicans +12
    (14 votes)
  • 50%
    Over 234
    (93 votes)
  • 4%
    Under 234
    (9 votes)
186 votes total Vote Now