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Can shorthanded, underdog Warriors continue to own the Clippers in LA?

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Golden State will be without Steph Curry and are one point underdogs as they head to LA to take on the Clippers

NBA: Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson had a good game to help beat the Nets in Steph Curry’s absence.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors will hope to overcome injuries with another solid team effort as they take on the Los Angeles Clippers in LA on Monday.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Monday November 12, 2018 7:30pm PST

Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California

TV: NBA TV, NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Clippers -1, total at 214

Injuries: Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) is questionable and Avery Bradley (ankle) is questionable for the Clippers.

Stephen Curry (groin) is out, Draymond Green (toe) is questionable, Shaun Livingston (foot) is questionable and DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out for the Warriors.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are 7-5 on the season and coming off of an overtime win at home against the Milwaukee Bucks.

LA is led by Tobias Harris scoring 20.7 points per game and grabbing 8.9 rebounds per game, and Patrick Beverley with 4.2 assists per game.

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers
Tobias Harris is leading the Clippers in scoring and rebounds.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Clippers are scoring 116.2 points per game (8th of 30), surrendering 111.7 points per game (19th of 30), earning simple rating system (SRS) score of 5.75 (6th of 30), pace factor of 101.9 (8th of 30), offensive rating 113.1 (6th of 30) and defensive rating of 108.7 (14th of 30).

The Clips are 7-6 against the spread (ATS) and 6-6 to the over/under this season.

Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS as a favorite, 4-0 ATS as a home favorite and 5-1 ATS as the home team this season.

Golden State Warriors

Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and the Warriors’ bench stepped up in their win against the Nets and they will likely need significant bench contribution again to beat the Clippers in Los Angeles.

Golden State is led by Steph Curry scoring 29.5 points per game and Draymond Green grabbing 7.2 rebounds per game and facilitating 7.9 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers
Quin Cook had a big game in the win against the Nets and will need to step up again to help beat the Clippers.
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Dubs are scoring 121.9 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 110.8 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 10.61 (3rd of 30), pace factor of 101.2 (12th of 30), offensive rating of 120.5 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.6 (15th of 30).

The Warriors are 8-5 ATS and 7-6 to the over/under this season.

Since 2017, Golden State covers ATS 28.6 percent of the time as an away underdog and 22.2 percent of the time as an underdog.

Analysis

The Warriors have been the Clippers daddy since 2014, winning thirteen of the last fourteen contests between the teams.

The Dubs have covered the last six games against the Clippers at the Staples Center and their last seven contests have gone over the total.

The Warriors have a good chance of pulling the upset even without Steph, but Steph has been the catalyst for many of their wins against the Clippers and the Dubs record as an underdog makes us take pause.

If Draymond doesn’t play, Golden State’s defense will continue to be compromised and two of the higher scoring offenses and faster paced teams are likely to put up a lot of the points.

Even if Draymond does play, we still anticipate the trend of overs continuing and see the best value in taking the game to go over 214 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Clippers on 11/12/18?

This poll is closed

  • 53%
    Warriors +1
    (163 votes)
  • 12%
    Clippers -1
    (38 votes)
  • 29%
    Over 214
    (92 votes)
  • 4%
    Under 214
    (14 votes)
307 votes total Vote Now