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Can the underdog, beleaguered Warriors upset the Rockets in Houston?

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Golden State are 3.5 point underdogs as they try to shake off the drama and upset the Rockets in Houston tonight.

NBA: Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors
Will Kevin Durant put the drama aside to help the Warriors upset the Rockets in Houston?
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Like sands through the hourglass of time, the off-court drama surrounding the Golden State Warriors has been swirling and flowing swiftly since the public tiff between Draymond Green and Kevin Durant.

And while the apparent off-court discord could be a factor in their being 3.5 point underdogs at Houston tonight, the Warriors will try to shake it off and perform like the professional champions they are to upset the Rockets.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday November 15th, 2018 at 5:00pm PST

Where: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

TV: TNT

Line: Houston -3.5, total at 219

Injuries: Gary Clark (hip) is questionable, Carmelo Anthony (illness) is doubtful, Gerald Green (ankle) is questionable, Michael Carter-Williams (illness) is questionable, Nene (calf) is out and Brandon Knight (knee) is out for Houston.

Stephen Curry (groin) is out and DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out for the Warriors.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are also dealing with player drama in Carmelo Anthony’s future with the club and multiple injuries as they take their 6-7 record into their tilt with the Dubs tonight, coming off of a 109-99 victory at the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday.

Houston is led by James Harden scoring 27.3 point per game and dishing 7.7 assists per game, and Clint Capela with 10.9 rebounds per game.

NBA: Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets
James Harden leads the Rockets in scoring and assists.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Rockets are scoring 103.2 points per game (28th of 30), allowing 106.7 points per game (6th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -1.20 (17th of 30), pace factor of 96.2 (29th of 30), offensive rating of 107.3 (22nd of 30) and defensive rating of 111.0 (21st of 30).

Houston is 5-8 against the spread (ATS) and 6-7 to the over/under this season.

The Rockets are 3-7 ATS as favorites and 1-4 ATS at home and as home favorites this season.

Golden State Warriors

While Bay Area and NBA media are overflowing with analysis about the tension between KD and Draymond, the Warriors are preparing for Houston and the road to another championship and will try to, as Klay Thompson eloquently put it, but the drama in the past like a ponytail.

Golden State is 12-3, coming off a 110-103 win against the Hawks and led by Steph Curry scoring 29.5 points per game and Draymond Green grabbing 7.8 rebounds per game and facilitating 7.4 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
Draymond Green is expected to be back in the lineup tonight after a one game suspension.
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Dubs are scoring 120.7 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.0 points per game (17th of 30), earning a SRS score of 8.74 (3rd of 30), pace factor of 100.8 (14th of 30), offensive rating of 118.9 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.3 (16th of 30).

The Warriors are 2-4 ATS as an away team and the over is 5-1 as an away team this season.

Since 2017, Golden States games are 3-6 to the over/under and 2-5 to the over/under as an underdog and away underdog, respectively, and the Dubs are 2-5 ATS as an away underdog and 2-7 ATS as an underdog.

Analysis

Before the start of the season, the Warriors and Rockets meetings would have been perceived as marquee match-ups, pitting the Western Conference Finalists against each other.

But the Rockets’ previously prolific offense has been a shell of its former self and the Rockets have not played well this season, particularly at home.

Which makes the Warriors being underdogs in tonight’s game notable and possibly a testament to oddsmakers weighing the Dub’s team drama as a destabilizing factor for the team’s performance on the court.

Since October of 2017, the Warriors are 5-5 ATS against the Rockets and their games during this time have gone 3-7 to the over/under, with their last five contests going under the total.

While many are concerned that Dray and KD’s squabble has caused irreparable damage, these Warriors are champions and professional athletes.

We feel that they will be able to put the drama aside and take care of business on the court and win this game and cover the 3.5 points.

Houston’s offense has been lacking and their pace has been slow. With Draymond’s defense back in the lineup and the Warriors likely looking to remind the world of their dominance, we expect a tough, scrappy game, all of which make us lean toward the game going under 219 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Rockets on 11/15/18?

This poll is closed

  • 66%
    Warriors +3.5
    (103 votes)
  • 13%
    Rockets -3.5
    (21 votes)
  • 13%
    Over 219
    (21 votes)
  • 7%
    Under 219
    (11 votes)
156 votes total Vote Now