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Will Warriors get back on track and cover 4 points at the Mavericks?

The Warriors will try to shake off the convincing loss to the Rockets and residual team drama as they take on the Mavericks in Dallas.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
The Warriors’ offense may need more scoring from Kevin Durant.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors have hit their roughest patch of the season both on and off the court, and will need more energy, focus and harmony as they continue their tour of the Lone Star state with a stop at Dallas on Saturday.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Saturday November 17th, 2018 at 5:30pm PST

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -4, total at 216

Injuries: Luka Doncic (shoulder) is probable, Wesley Matthews (hamstring) is questionable and Dirk Nowitzki (ankle) is out for the Mavericks.

Stephen Curry (groin) is out, Draymond Green (toe) is out, Alfonzo McKinnie (foot) is questionable and DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out for the Warriors

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas is 6-8, 5-2 at home and coming off of a 118-68 shellacking of the Utah Jazz and have won three in a row.

The Mavericks are led by exciting rookie Luka Doncic scoring 19.1 points per game, DeAndre Jordan with 13.4 rebounds a game and J.J. Barea dishing 5.8 assists per game.

NBA: Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic leads the Mavericks in scoring and is a rookie of the year candidate.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas is scoring 110.7 points per game (16th of 30), giving up 109.3 points per game (12th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -1.56 (19th of 30), pace factor of 110.3 (14th of 30), offensive rating of 109.5 (12th of 30) and defensive rating of 108.1 (10th of 30).

The Mavs are 9-5 against the spread (ATS) and 7-7 to the over/under.

Dallas is 5-2 ATS at home and as an underdog this season, and since 2017 have covered ATS 58.6 percent of the time as a home underdog and 58.5 percent of the time as an underdog.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are now 12-4 after losing two of their last three games, coming off a low energy, 86-107 loss at Houston while off-court tension continues to swirl.

Golden State’s offense has been sputtering without Steph Curry who is still their leading scorer with 29.5 points per game. Draymond Green leads the Dubs with 7.5 rebounds per game and 7.2 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Draymond Green continues to lead the team in rebounds and assists.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Dubs are scoring 118.6 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 110.8 points per game (17th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.91 (5th of 30), pace factor of 99.9 (15th of 30), offensive rating of 117.9 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.1 (20th of 30).

The Dubs are now 8-8 ATS and have not covered in their last three contests, and now 8-8 to the over/under with their last two going under the total.

Golden State is 2-5 ATS as an away team this season and since 2017 the Warriors are 26-32 ATS as an away team and 24-26 as an away favorite. The over is 5-1 when the Warriors are an away favorite and 5-2 when the Warriors are the away team this season.

Analysis

It may have been wishful thinking to anticipate that Golden State would easily move forward without Steph Curry and past the tension between Draymond and KD, and we would caution taking the Warriors ATS during this current stretch.

The Warriors have beaten the Mavericks in ten straight games and seventeen of their last eighteen contests, covering ATS in four of the last five meeting between these teams.

Seven of the last ten games between the Dubs and Mavs have gone over the total and we expect the Warriors’ pride to kick in after losing two of three, leading to better offense. And with Draymond’s defense absent from this contest, we anticipate the full game going over 216 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Mavericks on 11/17/18?

This poll is closed

  • 36%
    Warriors -4
    (90 votes)
  • 31%
    Mavericks +4
    (78 votes)
  • 22%
    Over 216
    (57 votes)
  • 9%
    Under 216
    (23 votes)
248 votes total Vote Now