So far (Nov. 22) during the NBA’s 2018-19 season, the points per game have been up dramatically 110.6 points this season to the prior season’s 106.3. While the average points per game has been rising over the last several years, this is a radical difference between seasons. Why and how did this happen?

The three suspects most frequently mentioned are:

1. Shooting more threes – 3PA per game up from 29.0 to 31.3

2. Emphasis on freedom of movement for offensive players – fouls per game up from 19.9 to 22.2

3. The higher pace at which games have been played – possessions per game up from 97.3 to 100.2

How much have each of these and possibly other factors contributed to the 4.3 more points per game on average?

Ignoring pace, the 4.3 points more per game – 4.0% – comes from 1.2 points from 2-point shots, 1.5 points from 3-point shots, and 1.5 points from free throws. [Basketball Reference’s stats have rounding error when added so total 4.2 versus 4.3.]

Looking at possessions, points per 100 possessions are up from 108.6 points 100 possessions to 109.6 – a 0.9% increase – less than 1%. Looking only at pace, pace increased 2.9 possessions per 48 minutes or 3.0%. Combining the increased scoring per 100 possessions with the increased pace accounts for the increase in points per game – 3 to 1 contributed by increased pace.

For the 2.3 additional possessions used to shoot more 3-point shots, teams on average have achieved 1.5 more points. This is a poor 0.63 points per possession. (On average teams have made 1.03 points per 2-point shoot showing how poor 0.63 is. We are talking about the incremental change, as on average 3-point shots score more points.)

What about the new freedom of movement emphasis? Per game, personal fouls increased from 19.9 per game to 22.2 (11.6%), FTA from 21.7 to 23.7, and FTM from 16.6 to 18.1 yielding 1.5 more points per game (9.0%). Personal fouls per 100 possessions went from 20.5 to 22.2 (8.3%). FTA per 100 possessions went from 22.3 to 23.7 (6.3%). Looked at per FGA, FTA per FGA increased from .252 to .267 and FTM per FGA .193 to .204 (5.7%). Thus, personal fouls called have increased. Even if one assumes fouls are proportional to possessions, the increase has still been 8.3%.

Absolutely, free throws have contributed only 35% of the increased points per game. In addition, the percentage of points from free throws as increased from 15.6% to 16.4% or 0.8 (5.1%). When one considers the increase in pace, freedom of movement has probably had an even larger than 35% relative contribution to the change in how games are played. However, I find it impossible to say its effect on the change in total points has been greater than the change in pace.

ANNEX: Statistics

Source: Statistics from Basketball Reference