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Can the nine-point underdog Warriors, Kevin Durant upset the Raptors in Toronto?

The Warriors will be without Draymond Green and Steph Curry and are 9 point underdogs as they travel to Toronto to take on the top team in the Eastern Conference.

NBA: Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors will likely need a heroic game from Kevin Durant to upset the Raptors in Toronto.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors will need all the momentum they can muster as they embark on a five game road trip, starting with the team that might be playing the best basketball in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday November 29th, 2018 at 5:00pm PST

Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada

TV: TNT

Line: Raptors -9, total at 224.5

Injuries: Greg Monroe (back) is probable and Norman Powell (shoulder) is out for the Raptors.

Stephen Curry (groin) is out, Draymond Green (toe) is out, Alfonzo McKinnie (foot) is out and DeMarcus Cousins (foot) is out for the Warriors.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors might be playing the best team basketball in the league and are in the midst of a six game winning streak, most recently dispatching the Memphis Grizzlies 122-114 in Tennessee.

Toronto is led by Kawhi Leonard scoring 24.3 points per game and pulling down 8.6 rebounds per game, and Kyle Lowry with 10.2 assists per game.

NBA: Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies
Kawhi Leonard is leading the Raptors in scoring and rebounds.
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

The Raptors are scoring 117.0 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 108.1 points per game (6th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 7.32 (3rd of 30), pace factor of 100.6 (6th of 30), offensive rating of 115.6 (2nd of 30) and defensive rating of 106.9 (7th of 30).

Toronto is 11-11 against the spread (ATS), 15-7 to the over/under and 9-2 to the over/under as the home team and home favorite this season.

Golden State Warriors

After hitting a funk since Steph’s injury, the Warriors have started to get back in a groove, winning their last three on the back of Kevin Durant and his hot hand and showing a lot of fight in their come-from-behind win over the Magic on Monday.

Golden State is led by Kevin Durant scoring 29.2 points per game, grabbing 7.8 assists per game and dishing 6.1 assists per game.

NBA: Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant has been heating up recently and now leads the Warriors is scoring, rebounding and assists.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 116.0 points per game (6th of 30), conceding 110.6 points per game (14th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.03 (6th of 30), pace factor of 99.8 (16th of 30), offensive rating of 115.7 (3rd of 30) and defensive rating of 110.4 (18th of 30).

Golden State are 9-13 ATS, 12-10 to the over/under, 0-3 ATS as an underdog, 0-3 to the over/under as an underdog this season.

Analysis

The Warriors have not fared well as underdogs this season, losing straight up and failing to cover in each game their opponent has been favored, with poor offensive output that has led to the scores going under the posted total.

The Warriors have beaten the Raptors in eight straight contests, but Toronto has covered ATS in five of the last six match-ups with five of those games going over the posted total.

Without Steph and Draymond, the Warriors will likely need a superhuman effort from KD and Klay Thompson to upset the Raptors in Toronto, and we would advise against betting on the Warriors ATS in this match-up and would lean toward Toronto.

Even though the Warriors have had a significant drop off in offensive production since Steph went out, KD has begun to hit his offensive stride and we anticipate him stepping up big time in this nationally televised contest and we see value in taking over 224.5.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Raptors on 11/29/18?

This poll is closed

  • 35%
    Warriors +9
    (87 votes)
  • 29%
    Raptors -9
    (72 votes)
  • 25%
    Over 224.5
    (64 votes)
  • 10%
    Under 224.5
    (25 votes)
248 votes total Vote Now