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Will Steph Curry’s return help the Warriors win and cover 4.5 points in Detroit?

The Warriors will have the benefit of Steph Curry’s eagerly anticipated return as they take on the Pistons in Detroit, favored by 4.5 points.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors
Stephen Curry will return to the Warriors for their game against the Pistons in Detroit on December 1st, 2018.
Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are starting to get back on track and will certainly benefit from Stephen Curry’s return from injury in time for the second game of a five game road trip as they take on the Detroit Pistons in the Motor City.

When: Saturday December 1st, 2018 at 4:00pm PST

Where: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -4.5, total at 228

Injuries: Zach Lofton (concussion) is questionable, Henry Ellenson (nose) is questionable and Luke Kennard (shoulder) is out for the Pistons.

Stephen Curry (groin) is probable, Draymond Green (toe) is out, Alfonzo McKinnie (foot) is out and DeMarcus Cousins (foot) is out for the Warriors.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are 12-7 on the season, have won four in a row, coming off of a 107-88 victory over the Chicago Bulls, and will be playing the second game of a back-to-back when they take on the Warriors on Saturday.

Prior to the Bulls game on Friday, Detroit was led by Blake Griffin scoring 25.1 points per game and dishing 5.1 assists per game, and Andre Drummond with 16.0 rebounds per game.

NBA: Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons
Blake Griffin leads the Pistons in points and assists.
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Not counting their game against Chicago on Friday, the Pistons were scoring 111.8 points per game (12th of 30), allowing 110.7 points per game (17th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -1.18 (17th of 30), pace factor of 99.7 (16th of 30), offensive rating of 109.6 (15th of 30) and defensive rating of 108.5 (9th of 30).

Detroit is 11-8 against the spread (ATS), 11-8 to the over/under with five of their last six games going over the posted total, 6-2 ATS as an underdog and 2-1 ATS as a home underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

After the rough patch during their last road trip in Texas, the Warriors are starting to click offensively again, riding the hot hand of Kevin Durant who nearly willed them to an upset win against the Toronto Raptors as nine-point underdogs.

Golden State is now 15-8 on the season, led by Kevin Durant scoring 30.1 points per game, grabbing 7.9 assists per game and dishing 6.1 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors
Kevin Durant is leading the team in points, rebounds and assists.
Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 116.5 points per game (5th of 30), conceding 111.5 points per game (20th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.97 (6th of 30), pace factor of 99.5 (17th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (3rd of 30) and defensive rating of 111.0 (19th of 30).

The Dubs are 10-13 ATS, 13-10 to the over/under, 3-7 ATS as the away team, 2-5 ATS as an away favorite, 6-1 to the over/ under as an away favorite and 7-3 to the over/under as the away team this season.

Analysis

Steph Curry is the central cog, motor and spiritual life force of the Warriors and his return will undoubtedly catalyze the return of classic Warriors basketball, but there is a question about how much he will play in his first game back.

Detroit has actually played tough against the Warriors the past few years, covering ATS in four of the last five contests between these teams and winning two of those games outright.

The Dubs will miss Draymond on the inside against Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond, but Curry’s return should boost the Warriors’ offensive production regardless.

Steph’s limited minutes will not hinder his presence from energizing the team and Detroit will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back, making us lean toward the game going over 228 points and predicting the Warriors to win by more than 4.5 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Pistons on 12/1/18?

This poll is closed

  • 51%
    Warriors -4.5
    (63 votes)
  • 16%
    Pistons +4.5
    (20 votes)
  • 25%
    Over 228
    (31 votes)
  • 7%
    Under 228
    (9 votes)
123 votes total Vote Now