clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Can Warriors cover 4 straight as 14 point favorites hosting the Grizzlies?

New, comments

The Warriors look to continue their 7-game winning streak and dominant regular season play as 14 point favorites at home against the Grizzlies.

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green has been playing some stifling defense during the Warriors current winning streak.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are winning and covering regular season games with an enthusiasm reminiscent of their 73-win season, and they will try to keep it going against the Memphis Grizzlies at Oracle on Monday.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Monday November 5th, 2018 at 7:30pm PST.

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBA TV, NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -14, total at 220

Injuries: Shelvin Mack (thumb) is probable, Omri Casspi (thigh) is probable, Chandler Parsons (knee) is out and JaMychal Green (jaw) is out for the Grizzlies.

Jordan Bell (calf) is questionable, Shaun Livingston (foot) is out and DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out for the Warriors.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are 5-3 after losing 102-100 at the Phoenix Suns as 4.5 point favorites, now facing the second game of a back-to-back.

Prior to the loss at the Suns, Memphis’ leading scorer and facilitator was Mike Conley with 20.3 points and 6.0 assists per game, Marc Gasol averaged the most rebounds with 8.4 per contest.

NBA: Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
Mike Conley is leading the Grizzlies in scoring and assists.
Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

Not counting the loss at the Suns, the Grizzlies were scoring 104.6 points per game (27th of 30), allowing 100.0 points per game (2nd of 30), earning a simple rating scale (SRS) score of 1.65 (14th of 30), pace factor of 96.3 (30th of 30), offensive rating of 108.5 (18th of 30) and defensive rating of 103.8 (4th of 30).

Memphis is 5-3 against the spread (ATS) and 3-5 to the over/under so far this season.

Since 2017, the Grizzlies cover 41.2 percent of the time on no rest, 44.1 percent of the time after a loss and 44.4 percent of the time as an away team. During this time period, Memphis has gone over the total 62.5 percent of the time on no rest and 57.5 percent of the time as an away underdog.

Golden State Warriors

Even on what some might call an off-night, the Warriors rolled Jimmy Butler and the Minnesota Timberwolves to the tune of a 17 point victory, winning their 7th straight game and covering their 3rd straight and 6th of last 7 spreads.

Golden State is led by Stephen Curry scoring 32.5 points per game, Kevin Durant grabbing 7.7 rebounds per game and Draymond Green dishing 8.5 assists per game.

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry continues to score with unprecedented efficiency and make his case as a leading MVP candidate.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 124.1 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 110.6 points per game (11th of 30), earning a SRS score of 11.57 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 102.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 121.5 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 108.3 (11th of 30).

The Dubs are 6-4 ATS, with the 6 covers coming in their last 7 games, and 6-4 to the over/under with their 5 game streak of going over the total being snapped in their win against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Golden State is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season, 0-1 ATS and 1-0 to the over/under with 2-3 days off.

Analysis

While the Warriors are attacking this regular season with controlled enthusiasm and efficient bench play, we find it hard to consider betting against the Dubs but 14 is a lot of points.

Memphis has definitely played tough against the Warriors over the past few seasons, covering five of their last nine contests against the Dubs, including their last game at Oracle.

The Grizzlies have over the years been and continue to be a strong defensive team and twelve of their last seventeen games against the Warriors have gone under the total, including three of their last four match-ups.

But with Golden State rested and ready to shake off some sub-par shooting in their last game, taken together with more vulnerable defense from Memphis in the second game of a back-to-back, we see the Warriors covering 14 points and the full game going over 220 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Grizzlies on 11/5/18?

This poll is closed

  • 38%
    Warriors -14
    (63 votes)
  • 16%
    Grizzlies +14
    (26 votes)
  • 36%
    Over 220
    (59 votes)
  • 8%
    Under 220
    (14 votes)
162 votes total Vote Now