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Will the Warriors bounce back and cover eight points at the Kings?

Golden State will need to get their offense back on track as they head to Sacramento to take on the upstart Kings, favored by eight points.

NBA: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry only scored ten points in their home loss to the Raptors.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors have no excuses for getting creamed by a Toronto Raptors team playing on no rest and without its best player.

Gone are the days where the Sacramento Kings are an easy win and the Warriors will need to figure out how to catalyze its offense if they want to win, let alone cover eight points in California’s capital.

Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.

When: Friday December 14th, 2018 at 7:00pm PST

Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -8, total at 236.5

Injuries: There are no reported injuries for Sacramento.

Shaun Livingston (pelvis) is out, Andre Iguodala (hip) is questionable, DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are 15-12, emerging as a solid, young team in the Western Conference and coming off of a 141-130 win against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday.

Sacramento is led by Buddy Hield scoring 18.6 points per game, Willie Cauley-Stein pulling down 8.4 rebounds per game and De’Aaron Fox with 7.6 assists per game.

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings
Willie Cauley-Stein has been strong on the boards for the Kings.
Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

The Kings are scoring 115.3 points per game (6th of 30), allowing 115.5 points per game (27th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 0.19 (18th of 30), pace factor of 103.6 (2nd of 30), offensive rating of 111.2 (12th of 30) and defensive rating of 111.4 (19th of 30).

Sacramento is the top covering team in the NBA with a 17-9-1 record against the spread (ATS) and the number one over team in the NBA, going 17-10 to the over/under this season.

The Kings are 8-3-1 ATS as the home team and as a home underdog, 9-5 ATS after a win, 13-9-1 ATS as an underdog, 5-7 to the over/under as the home team and home underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State looked sluggish and discombobulated in their 113-93 loss to the Raptors and their offense has been underwhelming the past three games.

The Warriors are led by Kevin Durant scoring 28.9 points per game, grabbing 7.7 rebounds per game and dishing 6.2 assists per game.

NBA: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant continues to lead the Warriors in points, rebounds and assists per game.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 115.6 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 110.6 points per game (15th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.71 (6th of 30), pace factor of 99.7 (16th of 30), offensive rating of 115.1 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.2 (17th of 30).

Golden State is 13-16 ATS, 15-14 to the over/under, 4-5 ATS after a loss, 6-8 ATS as an away team, 4-6 ATS as an away favorite, 5-10 ATS in conference games, 8-2 to the over/under as an away favorite, 9-5 to the over/under as an away team and 3-6 to the over/under after a loss.

Analysis

Golden State barely beat the Kings by a score of 117-116 at Oracle near the end of November and have generally had struggles against Sacramento over the past few years.

Sacramento has won outright in two of their last five contests against the Warriors and have covered ATS in six of the last nine games these teams have played, and given how the Kings have been a covering machine this season, we would lean toward Sacramento getting eight points in this match-up.

Even though Sacramento has been an over team this season and the Warriors have the highest offensive rating in the NBA, the Dubs’ offense has had some stagnancy and have gone under the posted total in the past three games.

Given the Warriors’ recent offensive struggles and the fact that seven of the last nine games between these team have gone under the total, we see value in taking under 236.5 points in this game.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Kings on 12/14/18?

This poll is closed

  • 28%
    Warriors -8
    (49 votes)
  • 36%
    Kings +8
    (61 votes)
  • 21%
    Over 236.5
    (36 votes)
  • 13%
    Under 236.5
    (23 votes)
169 votes total Vote Now