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Will the Warriors try hard enough to cover 11.5-points against the Grizzlies?

Golden State will need better effort than the last two games to win comfortably again, favored by double-digits at home against Memphis.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
The Golden State Warriors return home to face the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night.
Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

After getting spanked by the Toronto Raptors, the Golden State Warriors almost let sloppy play and lazy defense cost them a loss to the upstart Sacramento Kings.

But the Dubs turned on their lock-down defense for the last three minutes of the game, escaping with a 130-125 win, and will now return home as 11.5 point favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies.

Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.

When: Monday December 17, 2018 at 7:30pm PST.

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -11.5, total at 210

Injuries: Kyle Anderson (ankle) is questionable, Dillon Brooks (knee) is out and Chandler Parsons (knee) is out for the Grizzlies.

Shaun Livingston (pelvis) is probable, Andre Iguodala (hip) is probable, DeMarcus Cousins (hip) is out and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis is 16-13 on the season, have lost two in a row and four of five, falling last to the Houston Rockets in Texas by the final score of 105-97.

The Grizzlies are led by Mike Conley scoring 20.4 points per game and dishing 6.5 assists per game, and Marc Gasol grabbing 8.7 rebounds a game.

NBA: Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies
Mike Conley leads the Grizzlies in points and assists per game.
Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis is scoring 102.5 points per game (28th of 30), conceding 102.1 points per game (2nd of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 0.80 (14th of 30), pace factor of 94.6 (30th of 30), offensive rating of 106.8 (26th of 30) and defensive rating of 106.4 (6th of 30).

The Grizzlies are 16-13 against the spread (ATS), 12-16-1 to the over/under, 6-5 ATS as an away underdog, 7-5 ATS after a loss, 6-5-1 to the over/under after a loss and 5-6 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Dubs are now 20-10 but have appeared lackadaisical the past two games, playing with that familiar devil-may-care attitude toward the regular season that reminds us why we recommended against betting on the Warriors to go over their season win total or betting on Warriors in regular season games in general.

Golden State is led by Kevin Durant scoring 29.0 points per game, pulling down 7.7 rebounds per game and with 6.2 assists per game.

Toronto Raptors v Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant leads the Warriors in points, rebounds and assists per game.
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The Warriors are scoring 116.1 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 111.1 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.71 (5th of 30), pace factor of 100.1 (18th of 30), offensive rating of 115.2 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.2 (15th of 30).

Golden State is 13-17 ATS, 16-14 to the over/under, 7-8 ATS as the home team, 11-14 ATS as a favorite, 5-11 ATS in conference games, 7-9 to the over/under in conference games, 6-8 to the over/under as a home favorites and 6-9 to the over/under as the home team this season.

Analysis

Golden State has not covered in their last three games and are not a bet-on team right now with the way they have been playing, and not playing defense, even more so when laying double digit points.

So if we aren’t laying the points, that leaves leaning toward the Grizzlies or taking the over/under.

These teams have each covered twice the last four times they have played, and four of their last five contests have gone under the total.

Despite the trend of recent unders, we see the Warriors’ top rated offense continuing to roll with Draymond Green back in the lineup and Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston both expected to play, and anticipate this game going over 210 points and the Warriors to go over their team total of 110.5 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Grizzlies on 12/17/18?

This poll is closed

  • 32%
    Warriors —11.5
    (26 votes)
  • 20%
    Grizzlies +11.5
    (17 votes)
  • 32%
    Over 210
    (26 votes)
  • 14%
    Under 210
    (12 votes)
81 votes total Vote Now