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Can the Warriors keep it rolling against the Jazz, favored by only three points?

Golden State is favored by only three points against the Jazz in Salt Lake City.

NBA: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry and the Warriors will face the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City on Wednesday.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State put together a complete team effort and it resulted in an easy 110-93 win and cover against the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday.

Now the Warriors will return to the site of their dramatic, last-second win in Salt Lake City to face the Utah Jazz, favored by a meager three points.

Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.

When: Wednesday December 19, 2018 at 6:00pm PST

Where: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah.

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -3, total at 218

Injuries: Raul Neto (thigh) is questionable for the Jazz.

DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are 14-17 on the season and coming off of two losses, most recently falling short by a 102-97 score in Houston.

Utah is led by Donovan Mitchell scoring 21.0 points per game, Rudy Gobert grabbing 12.3 rebounds per game and Ricky Rubio with 6.0 assists per game.

NBA: Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
Donovan Mitchell leads the Jazz in points per game.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Jazz are scoring 106.5 points per game (25th of 30), allowing 106.5 points per game (6th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.42 (11th of 30), pace factor of 99.4 (17th of 30), offensive rating of 107.1 (25th of 30) and defensive rating of 107.2 (8th of 30).

Utah is 14-16-1 against the spread (ATS), 17-14-1 to the over/under, 1-0 ATS as a home underdog, 6-5 ATS as the home team, 4-4-1 ATS as an underdog, 1-0 to the over/under as a home underdog, 8-3 to the over/under as the home team.

Golden State Warriors

The Dubs covered ATS against the Grizzlies as 12.5 point favorites on Monday and are now 21-10 on the season.

Golden State is led by Kevin Durant scoring 28.8 points per game, pulling down 7.5 rebounds per game and dishing 6.2 assists per game.

NBA: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant continues to lead the Warriors in points, rebounds and assists per game.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 115.9 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 110.5 points per game (14th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.15 (5th of 30), pace factor of 100.1 (11th of 30), offensive rating of 115.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.7 (15th of 30).

Golden State is 14-17 ATS, 16-15 to the over/under, 6-9 ATS as the away team, 4-7 ATS as an away favorite, 6-11 ATS in conference games, 9-2 to the over/under as an away favorite, 12-8 to the over/under after a win, 15-11 to the over/under as a favorite.

Analysis

The Warriors are now almost completely healthy which makes this three point spread to an underwhelming Jazz team a bit suspicious, as if they are begging you to bet on the Dubs. Does Vegas know something that the rest of us don’t?

Utah has indeed given the Warriors trouble, covering ATS in their last four contests, winning three of those match-ups outright.

Given how five of the last six games between these teams have gone over the posted total, and the Jazz’s record going over when an underdog and at home, taken together with the Warriors record going over in away games, we see the best value in taking the full game to go over 218 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Jazz on 12/19/18?

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    Warriors -3
    (181 votes)
  • 11%
    Jazz +3
    (38 votes)
  • 26%
    Over 218
    (87 votes)
  • 7%
    Under 218
    (25 votes)
331 votes total Vote Now