Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.
When: Saturday December 22nd, 2018 at 5:30pm PST
Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
Line: Warriors -11.5, total at 225
TV: NBC Sports Bay Area
Injuries: Maxi Kleber (toe) is questionable, Ryan Broekhoff (illness) is questionable and Dennis Smith Jr. (wrist) is out for the Mavericks.
DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.
The Mavericks are 15-15, having lost four in a row and coming off of a 125-121 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday.
Dallas is led by Luka Doncic scoring 18.8 points per game, DeAndre Jordan grabbing 14.1 rebounds per game and J.J. Barea with 5.5 assists per game.
The Mavericks are scoring 110.2 points per game (17th of 30), allowing 109.2 points per game (12th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 0.17 (19th of 30), pace factor of 99.6 (14th of 30), offensive rating of 110.2 (16th of 30) and defensive rating of 109.2 (12th of 30).
Dallas is 17-13 against the spread (ATS), 15-14-1 to the over/under, 4-6 ATS as an away underdog, 5-9 ATS as the away team, 7-3 to the over/under as an away underdog, 9-4-1 to the over/under after a loss and 10-6-1 to the over/under as an underdog.
Golden State Warriors
The 21-11 Warriors will open up a four-game home stand on Saturday and that may be what they need to get back on track after losing two of their last four.
Golden State is led by Kevin Durant scoring 28.8 points per game, pulling down 7.5 rebounds per game and dishing 6.1 assists per game.
The Warriors are scoring 115.5 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 110.4 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.93 (6th of 30), pace factor of 100.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 114.5 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.5 (14th of 30).
The Dubs are 14-18 ATS, 16-16 to the over/under, 8-7 ATS as a home favorite, 4-6 ATS after a loss, 6-12 ATS in conference games, 15-12 to the over/under as a favorite, 4-6 to the over/under after a loss, 6-9 to the over/under as a home favorite, 7-11 to the over/under in conference games and 6-10 to the over/under as the home team.
The Mavericks are 2-12 on the road this season so we are going to go out on a limb and say there is no way in hell they beat the Warriors in Oracle on Saturday.
Dallas has covered ATS in two of their last three games against Golden State, but prior to their upset win over the Warriors in November had lost ten in a row to the Dubs, with four of the last five meetings going over the posted total.
But the Warriors were missing Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in their loss to the Mavericks and are now almost completely healthy.
Golden State will be eager to get revenge against the Mavericks and to get the taste of that loss to the Jazz out of their mouths, and Dallas will be more fatigued in their third straight road game, leading us to see value in taking the Warriors to win by more than 11.5 points.
What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Mavericks on 12/22/18?
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