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Will Warriors bounce back and get revenge on the Mavericks, laying 11.5 points?

Golden State is coming off of a loss and looking to avenge a loss in their last game against Dallas.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Steph Curry did not play the last time the Warriors played the Mavericks.
Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors will need to bounce back from a 108-103 loss to the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City if they want to avenge their 112-109 loss to the Dallas Mavericks.

Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.

When: Saturday December 22nd, 2018 at 5:30pm PST

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

Line: Warriors -11.5, total at 225

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Injuries: Maxi Kleber (toe) is questionable, Ryan Broekhoff (illness) is questionable and Dennis Smith Jr. (wrist) is out for the Mavericks.

DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are 15-15, having lost four in a row and coming off of a 125-121 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday.

Dallas is led by Luka Doncic scoring 18.8 points per game, DeAndre Jordan grabbing 14.1 rebounds per game and J.J. Barea with 5.5 assists per game.

NBA: Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
Luka Doncic leads the Mavericks in points per game and is a leading candidate for rookie of the year.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Mavericks are scoring 110.2 points per game (17th of 30), allowing 109.2 points per game (12th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 0.17 (19th of 30), pace factor of 99.6 (14th of 30), offensive rating of 110.2 (16th of 30) and defensive rating of 109.2 (12th of 30).

Dallas is 17-13 against the spread (ATS), 15-14-1 to the over/under, 4-6 ATS as an away underdog, 5-9 ATS as the away team, 7-3 to the over/under as an away underdog, 9-4-1 to the over/under after a loss and 10-6-1 to the over/under as an underdog.

Golden State Warriors

The 21-11 Warriors will open up a four-game home stand on Saturday and that may be what they need to get back on track after losing two of their last four.

Golden State is led by Kevin Durant scoring 28.8 points per game, pulling down 7.5 rebounds per game and dishing 6.1 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Kevin Durant continues to lead the Warriors in points, rebounds and assists per game.
Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 115.5 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 110.4 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.93 (6th of 30), pace factor of 100.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 114.5 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.5 (14th of 30).

The Dubs are 14-18 ATS, 16-16 to the over/under, 8-7 ATS as a home favorite, 4-6 ATS after a loss, 6-12 ATS in conference games, 15-12 to the over/under as a favorite, 4-6 to the over/under after a loss, 6-9 to the over/under as a home favorite, 7-11 to the over/under in conference games and 6-10 to the over/under as the home team.

Analysis

The Mavericks are 2-12 on the road this season so we are going to go out on a limb and say there is no way in hell they beat the Warriors in Oracle on Saturday.

Dallas has covered ATS in two of their last three games against Golden State, but prior to their upset win over the Warriors in November had lost ten in a row to the Dubs, with four of the last five meetings going over the posted total.

But the Warriors were missing Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in their loss to the Mavericks and are now almost completely healthy.

Golden State will be eager to get revenge against the Mavericks and to get the taste of that loss to the Jazz out of their mouths, and Dallas will be more fatigued in their third straight road game, leading us to see value in taking the Warriors to win by more than 11.5 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Mavericks on 12/22/18?

This poll is closed

  • 45%
    Warriors -11.5
    (30 votes)
  • 22%
    Mavericks +11.5
    (15 votes)
  • 25%
    Over 225
    (17 votes)
  • 6%
    Under 225
    (4 votes)
66 votes total Vote Now