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Will Warriors start covering spreads again versus the Lakers and LeBron on Christmas?

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Golden State has been winning ugly and only covered once in seven games as they head into their Christmas Day contest against the Lakers and LeBron James.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry scored 42 and the game winner against the Clippers on Sunday.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors’ last two wins at home came down to the wire and their play not meeting expectations has correlated with failing to cover in six of their last seven games.

Perhaps LeBron James coming to town with the young Los Angeles Lakers on a nationally televised game could catalyze a tinge more motivation on Christmas day.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday December 25th, 2018 at 5:00pm

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

Line: Warriors -9, total at 235

TV: ABC/ESPN

Injuries: JaVale McGee (flu) is questionable, Tyson Chandler (back) is questionable and Michael Beasley (personal) is out for the Lakers.

DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have lost three of four and are 19-14 on the season, coming off of a 107-99 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.

Los Angeles is led by LeBron James scoring 27.6 points per game, pulling down 8.2 rebounds per game and dishing 7.2 assists per game.

NBA: Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James leads the Lakers in points, rebounds and assists per game.
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

The Lakers are scoring 112.8 points per game (10th of 30), allowing 111.3 points per game (20th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.31 (14th of 30), pace factor of 102.6 (4th of 30), offensive rating of 109.6 (18th of 30) and defensive rating of 108.1 (10th of 30).

Los Angeles is 14-19 against the spread (ATS), 12-20-1 to the over/under, 6-7 ATS after a loss, 2-3 ATS as an away underdog, 6-10 ATS as the away team, 2-3 to the over/under as an away underdog and 5-8 to the over/under after a loss this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State were ten-point favorites but needed a last second shot by Steph Curry to win by two, one game after squeaking out a four-point win against the Dallas Mavericks in a game they were favored by eleven.

The Warriors are led by Kevin Durant scoring 29.0 points per game, grabbing 7.8 boards per game and with 6.1 assists per game.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant leads the Warriors in points, rebounds and assists per game.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 116.0 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 111.1 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.82 (6th of 30), pace factor of 100.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.0 (15th of 30).

The Dubs are the second worst covering team in the NBA, 14-20 ATS, 18-16 to the over/under, 8-9 ATS as home favorites, 12-17 ATS as a favorite, 10-12 ATS after a win, 17-12 to the over/under as a favorite and 13-9 to the over/under after a win this season.

Analysis

As much as it may seem likely that the Warriors will be extra motivated to beat LeBron and the Lakers with a big win in this spot, we can’t recommend betting the Warriors ATS with the way Klay Thompson has been shooting and the loose defense they have been playing recently.

The Warriors have beaten the Lakers in seven straight but the Lakers have covered the spread in three of their last four meetings, with three of those four contests going over the posted total.

The Warriors will be playing their third game in four days on Tuesday and this is likely to adversely effect their defensive intensity which had not been very sharp recently anyways.

With less defensive intensity between two of the more potent offenses and higher paced teams in the league, we would lean toward over 235 points in this Christmas Day contest.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Lakers on 12/25/18?

This poll is closed

  • 31%
    Warriors -9
    (59 votes)
  • 34%
    Lakers +9
    (66 votes)
  • 25%
    Over 235
    (49 votes)
  • 8%
    Under 235
    (16 votes)
190 votes total Vote Now