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Can bettors regain trust laying points with the Warriors, starting with nine against Portland?

Perhaps hosting the Trailblazers will help Golden State regroup after getting destroyed on Christmas.

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and almost all the Warriors had sub-par performances against the Lakers.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

At this point in the Golden State Warriors’ season, bettors would greatly benefit from advice to not bet on the Warriors against the spread (ATS) during the regular season and to never bet the Warriors to win straight up on the moneyline, advice that would have been handy prior to their game against the Los Angeles Lakers where the Warriors not only didn’t cover but lost outright by the humiliating score of 127-101.

Hosting the Portland Trailblazers helped the Dubs snap a four game losing streak earlier this season, so maybe seeing Portland is what Golden State needs to get back on track and rebuild some confidence.

Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday December 27th, 2018 at 7:30pm PST

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -9, total at 227

Injuries: Anfernee Simons (illness) is out for the Trailblazers.

Jacob Evans (foot) is questionable, DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out and Damian Jones is out for the Warriors.

Portland Trailblazers

Portland is 19-15 on the season, coming off of a 117-96 loss at the Utah Jazz, having lost two of their last four.

The Blazers are led by Damian Lillard scoring 26.9 points per game and dishing 5.8 assists per game, and Jusuf Nurkic with 10.2 rebounds per game.

NBA: Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard leads Portland in points and assists per game.
Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Portland is scoring 111.0 points per game (14th of 30), allowing 110.9 points per game (17th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.10 (15th of 30), pace factor of 99.0 (20th of 30), offensive rating of 111.5 (12th of 30) and defensive rating of 111.4 (18th of 30).

The Blazers are 16-18 ATS, 17-17 to the over/under, 6-8 ATS after a loss, 5-9 ATS as an underdog, 5-11 ATS as the away team and 3-9 ATS as an away underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

Maybe bettors should have seen the Warriors’ epic collapse coming, given how they have barely squeaked by teams since their previous, decisive home loss to the Toronto Raptors.

Yet hindsight is 20/20 and it would’ve been hard to blame anyone who thought the Dubs would step up their game against LeBron James and the Lakers during a nationally televised game during Christmas, even if they ended up being wrong.

Golden State is led by Kevin Durant scoring 28.8 points per game, grabbing 7.8 boards per game and with 6.1 assists per game.

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant leads the Warriors in points, rebounds and assists per game.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 115.6 points per game (4th of 30), allowing 111.5 points per game (20th of 30), earning a SRS score of 3.97 (7th of 30), pace factor of 100.3 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 114.5 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.5 (17th of 30).

The Warriors are 14-21 ATS, 18-17 to the over/under, 8-11 ATS as the home team, 9-11 ATS after one day off, 12-18 ATS as the favorite and 4-7 ATS after a loss this season.

Analysis

While it might be tempting to expect a huge bounce-back game from the Warriors after getting humiliated on national television, Golden State have not bounced-back well this season and their regular season malaise, sloppy defense and Klay Thompson’s shooting slump have persisted and make it difficult to confidently lay points with the Warriors.

Portland has covered three of the last four meetings between these teams with five of their last six contests going over the posted total.

Damian Lillard is always a threat to try and show up in his hometown of Oakland and we expect the Blazers to fight hard on Thursday night coming off of a loss.

The Warriors’ shooters will be itching to balance their poor offensive production from Christmas day and, taken together with Golden State’s recent lack-luster defensive efforts, we lean toward this game going over the total of 227.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Blazers on 12/27/18?

This poll is closed

  • 30%
    Warriors -9
    (20 votes)
  • 38%
    Blazers +9
    (25 votes)
  • 27%
    Over 227
    (18 votes)
  • 3%
    Under 227
    (2 votes)
65 votes total Vote Now