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Have the Warriors become an ATS auto-fade, laying only 3.5 points at Portland?

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Golden State has struggled not only to cover but even win home games as they hit the road to face the Portland team that just beat them.

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson’s struggles are just one dimension of the Warriors’ back-to-back losses.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are playing some of their most dysfunctional basketball in recent years and the market has begun to adjust, making them only a small favorite as they head to Portland to take on the team that just punked them in their own house.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Saturday December 29th, 2018 at 7:00pm

Where: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon

Line: Warriors -3.5, total at 223.5

TV: NBA TV, NBC Sports Bay Area

Injuries: Anfernee Simons (illness) is out for the Trailblazers.

Jacob Evans (foot) is questionable, DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out and Damian Jones is out for the Warriors.

Portland Trailblazers

Portland got the upset win in overtime against the Warriors but controlled the game and were the sharper team in Oracle on Thursday night.

The Blazers are led by Damian Lillard scoring 26.7 points per game and dishing 5.8 assists per game, and Jusuf Nurkic with 10.2 rebounds per game.

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Damian Lillard hit the dagger in the Blazers’ overtime win at Oracle.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Portland is scoring 110.9 points per game (17th of 30), allowing 110.8 points per game (16th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.24 (15th of 30), pace factor of 99.0 (18th of 30), offensive rating of 111.0 (14th of 30) and defensive rating of 110.9 (17th of 30).

The Blazers are 17-18 against the spread (ATS), 17-18 to the over/under, 2-0 ATS as a home underdog and 11-7 ATS as the home team this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors couldn’t hit free throws, threw bad passes that were turnovers or bounced off a teammate’s face and continued to miss shots in their second straight loss at Oracle.

Golden State is led by Kevin Durant coring 28.7 points per game, grabbing 7.8 boards per game and with 6.3 assists per game.

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant had a triple-double in the Warriors’ home loss to the Blazers.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 115.4 points per game (4th of 30), allowing 111.5 points per game (20th of 30), earning a SRS score of 3.89 (7th of 30), pace factor of 100.4 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 114.0 (2nd of 30) and defensive rating of 110.1 (14th of 30).

The Warriors are 14-22 ATS this season, failing to cover in five straight games and in eight of their last nine. Golden State is 18-18 to the over/under, 6-10 ATS as the away team, 4-8 ATS after a loss and as an away favorite this season. The over/under is 9-3 when the Warriors are an away favorite and 10-6 when the Dubs are on the road.

Analysis

If you would have bet against the Warriors in each of their last nine games, you would have won in eight of them, begging the question of whether it makes sense to lean on fading Golden State ATS during this current stretch.

The market correction has already begun in the form of smaller spreads, but the Dubs may still be overvalued which could mean value in fading them. We certainly would not recommend betting them ATS any time soon.

Portland has now covered four of the last five games against the Warriors, winning the last two contests in Portland straight up, making us lean toward the Trailblazers and the points in this match-up.

The Dubs will be out for blood and will likely shoot better, which taken together with five of their last seven meetings going over the posted total, lead us to lean toward over 223.5 total points in this contest.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Blazers on 12/29/18?

This poll is closed

  • 41%
    Warriors -3.5
    (46 votes)
  • 28%
    Blazers +3.5
    (31 votes)
  • 20%
    Over 223.5
    (22 votes)
  • 10%
    Under 223.5
    (11 votes)
110 votes total Vote Now