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Will Warriors get revenge in Milwaukee as 1.5-point underdogs?

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Golden State will be without Draymond Green as they try to avenge one of their worst losses of the season as they take on the Bucks on Friday night.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Steph Curry is heating up just in time for the Warriors rematch against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors appear to be regaining their offensive potency just in time for an opportunity to avenge their trouncing by the Milwaukee Bucks at Oracle earlier this season.

But what may have worked against the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks may not fly against the Bucks and the Dubs will need a strong team performance to pull off the upset in Milwaukee.

Here we discuss the odds and game preview from a betting perspective.

When: Friday December 7th at 6:30pm PST.

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

TV: ESPN

Line: Bucks -1.5, total at 239.5

Injuries: Khris Middleton (personal) is probable, Ersan Ilyasova (concussion) is probable, John Henson (wrist) is out and Trevon Duval (eye) is out for the Bucks.

Draymond Green (toe) is out, Damian Jones (pectoral) is out and DeMarcus Cousins is out for the Warriors.

Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee is coming off of a 115-92 home win against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday but have lost two of their last four contests.

The Bucks are led by Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 27.0 points per game, pulling down 13.0 rebounds per game and dishing 6.0 assists per game.

NBA: Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks
The Greek Freak leads the Bucks in points, rebounds and assists per game and is one of the most dominant players in the league.
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Milwaukee is scoring 121.1 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 110.4 points per game (14th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 11.01 (1st of 30), pace factor of 103.4 (4th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (2nd of 30) and defensive rating of 105.8 (6th of 30).

The Bucks are 12-10-1 against the spread (ATS), 15-8 to the over/under, 9-4-1 ATS as the home team, 8-4-1 ATS as a home favorite, 9-5 to the over/under as the home team and 8-5 to the over/under as the home favorite this season.

Golden State Warriors

After losing the first two games of the road trip, the Warriors are coming off of two convincing wins in Atlanta and Cleveland, though it’s hard to gauge the quality of wins against Eastern Conference bottom-feeders.

Golden State is led by Kevin Durant scoring 29.8 points per game, grabbing 7.8 rebounds per game and with 6.3 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Golden State will likely need a big performance from Kevin Durant to upset the Bucks in Milwaukee.
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 116.8 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 111.2 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.88 (5th of 30), pace factor of 99.5 (17th of 30), offensive rating of 116.5 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.9 (19th of 30).

The Dubs are 12-14 ATS, 15-11 to the over/under, 5-8 ATS as the away team, 1-3 ATS as an underdog, 1-2 ATS as the away underdog, 1-2 to the over/under as the away underdog and 1-3 to the over/under as the underdog this season.

Analysis

Based on recent trends, this contest seems like a win for the Bucks in a high-scoring affair.

Milwaukee has covered ATS and beat the Warriors straight up in the last two meetings between these teams, covering in five of their last seven contests.

But trends don’t last forever and these are the World Champion Golden State Warriors we are talking about.

These Warriors play their best when their backs are against the wall and in the playoffs and Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson will have extra motivation to avoid getting swept by any team, let alone a squad that is rising as a contender to reach the conference finals.

Steph is settling back in as the engine of the most potent offense in the league and KD continues to optimize his offensive efficiency in their partnership, and the continually evolving and improving chemistry between these two superstars makes it hard to bet against them.

Without Draymond on defense and in the paint, Giannis and the Bucks are likely to find several clear paths to the basket, but we expect Steph and KD to have big games and make sure they leave Milwaukee with a win.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Bucks on 12/7/18?

This poll is closed

  • 64%
    Warriors +1.5
    (159 votes)
  • 13%
    Bucks -1.5
    (32 votes)
  • 15%
    Over 239.5
    (38 votes)
  • 6%
    Under 239.5
    (16 votes)
245 votes total Vote Now