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Will Draymond’s return help the Warriors cover 10.5-points against the Wolves?

The Warriors get Draymond Green back to face the Minnesota Timberwolves at Oracle, favored by 10.5 points.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors
Draymond Green is expected to play in the Warriors’ home game against the Timberwolves.
Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors return home from a five-game road trip and will have the benefit of Draymond Green’s services in the starting line-up, hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night.

Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.

When: Monday December 10th, 2018 at 7:30pm PST

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -10.5, total at 226

Injuries: Robert Covington (knee) is probable and Jerryd Bayless (knee) is out for the Timberwolves.

Draymond Green is probable (toe), Damian Jones (pectoral) is out and DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out for the Warriors.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are 13-13 on the season, coming off of a 113-105 loss in Portland on Saturday.

Minnesota is led by Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 21.2 points per game and pulling down 11.9 rebounds per game, and Jeff Teague with 7.8 assists per game.

NBA: Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl-Anthony Towns leads the Timberwolves in points and rebounds per game.
Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports

The Timberwolves are scoring 109.8 points per game (17th of 30), giving up 109.6 points per game (11th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 1.06 (15th of 30), pace factor of 99.5 (19th of 30), offensive rating of 110.4 (12th of 30) and defensive rating of 110.2 (18th of 30).

Minnesota is 14-12 against the spread (ATS), 9-17 to the over/under, 4-7 ATS as the away team, 2-6 ATS as an away underdog, 4-9 to the over/under as an underdog, 2-6 to the over/under as an away underdog and 2-9 to the over/under as the away team this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors finished strong on their road trip, winning their last three, getting revenge in a 105-95 win at the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night.

Golden State is led by Kevin Durant scoring 29.1 points per game, grabbing 7.8 rebounds per game and dishing 6.3 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks
Klay Thompson’s defense was major factor in the Warriors’ win at Milwaukee.
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 116.4 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 110.6 points per game (16th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.24 (5th of 30), pace factor of 99.6 (17th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.2 (17th of 30).

Golden State is 13-14 ATS, 15-12 to the over/under, 7-5 ATS as a home favorite, 7-6 ATS as the home team, 9-8 ATS after a win, 12-5 to the over/under after a win and 14-8 to the over/under as a favorite this season.

Analysis

They say defense wins championships and the Warriors harnessed some of the lock-down defense that has been a core part of their championship identity in shutting down the Bucks, and will now get their best defender back for this game.

The Dubs have covered three of the last four contests between these teams, contests which occurred when the Wolves had Jimmy Butler on their roster, and three of those four games have gone under the posted total.

Golden State might experience a tinge of rust as Draymond returns after an extended absence, but his defensive and facilitating presence will outshine any kinks and we expect the Warriors to smother and cover in this game.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Wolves on 12/10/18?

This poll is closed

  • 55%
    Warriors -10.5
    (53 votes)
  • 19%
    Timberwolves +10.5
    (19 votes)
  • 15%
    Over 226
    (15 votes)
  • 9%
    Under 226
    (9 votes)
96 votes total Vote Now