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Can the Warriors beat Luka Doncic in Dallas and cover their third straight game?

Golden State will try to beat the Mavericks in Dallas for the first time this season.

NBA: Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are playing with crisp ball movement and joy in their past two games.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are coming off of back-to-back blowouts and could use that momentum as they embark on a long road trip, starting against a hot Mavericks team that beat the Dubs in Dallas as underdogs.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday January 13th, 2019 at 4:00pm PST.

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -6, total is at 228

Injuries: J.J. Barea (Achilles) is out and Dennis Smith Jr. (back) is questionable for the Mavericks.

DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas is 20-22, coming off of a 119-115 road win at Minnesota.

The Mavs are led by Luka Doncic wit 20 points per game, DeAndre Jordan with 20 rebounds per game and J.J. Barea with 5.6 assists per game.

NBA: Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Luka Doncic leads the Mavericks in scoring and is front-runner for rookie of the year.
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas is scoring 109.9 points per game (19th of 30), allowing 109.4 points per game (13th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 0.85 (5th of 30), pace factor of 100.0 (11th of 30), offensive rating of 109.4 (18th of 30) and defensive rating of 108.9 (11th of 30).

The Mavericks are the top-covering team in the NBA and are 25-17 against the spread (ATS), 19-21-2 to the over/under, 7-1 ATS as a home underdog, 14-6 ATS as the home team and 17-9 ATS as an underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors had their second straight game where they covered the first quarter, half time and full game spread while hitting their team total over in their 146-109 demolition of the Chicago Bulls, moving to 28-14.

Golden State is led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.8 points per game and Kevin Durant with 7.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game.

NBA: Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson’s hot hand has helped the Warriors win comfortably the last two games.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 117.4 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 111.7 points per game (20th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.38 (4th of 30), pace factor of 100.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.3 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are 18-24 ATS, 22-20 to the over/under, 8-11 ATS as the away team, 6-9 ATS as the away favorite, 11-4 to the over/under as an away favorite and 16-11 to the over/under after a win this season.

Analysis

Dallas has been a force at home this season and have covered two straight and three of their last four against the Warriors, but J.J. Barea’s season-ending injury will have a significant impact on this game.

Though it has come against two of the worst two teams in the NBA, Golden State is getting into an offensive groove and since the market may have not yet adjusted to the loss of J.J. Barea, we lean toward Warriors covering the six points and the total going over 228 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Mavericks on 1/13/19?

This poll is closed

  • 51%
    Warriors -6
    (79 votes)
  • 16%
    Mavericks +6
    (25 votes)
  • 21%
    Over 228
    (33 votes)
  • 10%
    Under 228
    (16 votes)
153 votes total Vote Now

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