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Will the Warriors get revenge against the Nuggets, favored by a single point?

Golden State can claim the top seed in the Western Conference and avenge their loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Steph Curry scored 48 points in the Warriors win at Dallas.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors’ revenge tour on the road will continue in Denver, where they can get even for their first loss of the season to the Nuggets while also earning the best record in the Western Conference.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday January 15th, 2018 at 6:00pm PST.

Where: Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -1, total is at 228

Injuries: Trey Lyles (wrist) is questionable, Gary Harris (hamstring) is questionable, Isaiah Thomas (hip) is out, Michael Porter Jr. (back) is out and Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) is out for the Nuggets.

Draymond Green (knee) is probable, Damian Jones (pectoral) is out and DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out for the Warriors.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets’ 29-13 record is the best in the Western Conference and they are coming off of a 116-113 win versus Portland on Sunday.

Denver is led by Nikola Jokic who leads the team in points (19.7), rebounds (10.2) and assists (7.5) per game.

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets in points, rebounds and assists per game.
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Nuggets are scoring 110.4 points per game (18th of 30), allowing 105.5 points per game (4th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 5.38 (4th of 30), pace factor of 96.7 (27th of 30), offensive rating of 113.7 (5th of 30) and defensive rating of 108.6 (10th of 30).

Denver is 23-19 against the spread (ATS), 18-23-1 to the over/under, 2-0 ATS as a home underdog, 14-7 ATS as the home team, 0-2 to the over/under as a home underdog and 4-8 to the over/under as an underdog.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors moved to 29-14 with their 119-114 win over Luka Doncic and the Mavericks in Dallas, bolstered by another outstanding performance from Stephen Curry.

Golden State is led by Steph Curry scoring 29.4 points per game and Kevin Durant grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game and dishing 6.1 assists per game.

The Warriors are scoring 117.4 points per game (2nd of 30), allowing 111.7 points per game (20th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.39 (3rd of 30), pace factor of 100.1 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.2 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.5 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are 18-25 ATS, 23-20 to the over/under, 8-12 ATS as the away team, 6-10 ATS as the away favorite, 12-4 to the over/under as an away favorite and 17-11 to the over/under after a win this season.

Analysis

The Nuggets have been a tough out for the Dubs, particularly in the Pepsi Center where they have straight-up won and covered the last two contests, both of which went under the posted total.

But as the Warriors are getting back into an offensive groove and potentially being motivated to avenge their loss to the Nuggets, Denver might be a bit fatigued after their Sunday night game (see fatigue factor chart in tweet below), making us lean toward the Warriors winning the game and the score going under the posted total.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Nuggets on 1/15/19?

This poll is closed

  • 37%
    Warriors -1
    (118 votes)
  • 34%
    Nuggets +1
    (108 votes)
  • 17%
    Over 228
    (56 votes)
  • 10%
    Under 228
    (32 votes)
314 votes total Vote Now

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