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Why are the Golden State Warriors favored by only two points at the Boston Celtics?

Golden State has been on a roll but are barely favored in Boston on Saturday night.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards
Steph Curry’s play has been elite during the Warriors’ current streak.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors started their east coast tour with a comfortable win in Washington but face a tougher test in the Celtics at the Garden in Boston on Saturday night.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Saturday, January 26, 2019 at 5:30pm PST.

Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors -2, total is at 229.

Injuries: Kyrie Irving (flu) is probable and Jabari Bird (personal) is out for the Celtics.

Jonas Jerebko (personal) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Boston Celtics

Boston is 30-18 on the season, coming off of a 123-103 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers and have won five straight.

The Celtics are led by Kyrie Irving with 23.5 points and 6.9 assists per game and Al Horford with 6.4 rebounds per game.

NBA: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
Kyrie Irving leads the Celtics in points and assists per game.
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Boston is scoring 112.2 points per game (13th of 30), allowing 105.7 points per game (4th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 5.45 (4th of 30), pace factor of 98.8 (19th of 30), offensive rating of 112.6 (10th of 30) and defensive rating of 106.1 (5th of 30).

The Celtics are 25-23 against the spread (ATS), 29-19 to the over/under, 16-8 ATS as the home team, 3-5 ATS as an underdog, 0-1 ATS as a home underdog, 1-0 to the over/under as a home underdog and 6-2 to the over/under as a home underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State took the foot off the gas at the end of their 126-118 win at the Wizards, just missing the cover as nine-point favorites but moving to 34-14 on the season.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 29.5 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.9 rebounds and 7.3 assists per contest.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards
Draymond Green leads the Warriors in rebounds and assists per game.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 118.9 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 112.0 points per game (22nd of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.47 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.5 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 117.2 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.5 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are 21-26-1 ATS, 27-21 to the over/under, 16-16-1 ATS after a win, 9-11 ATS as an away favorite, 15-5 to the over/under as an away favorite, 16-8 to the over/under as the away team and 21-12 to the over/under after a win.

Analysis

Even though a healthy Warriors team with DeMarcus Cousins look like world beaters right now, this line is tiny because Kyrie Irving and the Boston Celtics have a history of playing tough and covering the number against Golden State.

The Celtics have covered three straight versus the Dubs and seven of their last eight match-ups, having beaten the Warriors straight up in two of their last three contests.

Boston is a top defensive team and their last five games against the Warriors have gone under the posted total, but the Celtics are also the top ‘over’ team in the NBA.

Given how the Warriors offense is clicking right now, however, we can’t bet against them, even in this spot, and can only lean toward the over in this contest.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Celtics on 1/26/19?

This poll is closed

  • 53%
    Warriors -2
    (254 votes)
  • 15%
    Celtics +2
    (73 votes)
  • 20%
    Over 229
    (97 votes)
  • 10%
    Under 229
    (49 votes)
473 votes total Vote Now

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