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Will Warriors regroup and cover 7.5-points at Sacramento?

Golden State will need to shake off their overtime loss to overcome the feisty Kings in Sacramento.

NBA: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry scored 35 points but it wasn’t enough to beat the Rockets at home on Thursday.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors let a twenty point lead evaporate in their disheartening loss to the Rockets and will have to be mindful of a letdown when they take on the young, upstart Kings on Saturday evening.

Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.

When: Saturday January 5th, 2019 at 7:00pm PST

Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -7.5 points, total at 238.5

Injuries: Marvin Bagley (knee) is out for the Kings.

DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are 19-19 and have lost three in a row, most recently a 117-113 home loss to Denver.

Sacramento is led by Buddy Hield scoring 20.2 points per game, Willie Cauley-Stein with 8.6 rebounds per game and De’Aaron Fox with 7.6 assists per game.

NBA: Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers
Buddy Hield leads the Kings in points per game.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Kings are scoring 115.0 points per game (5th of 30), allowing 116.7 points per game (28th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -0.49 (21st of 30), pace factor of 103.7 (2nd of 30), offensive rating of 110.5 (15th of 30) and defensive rating of 112.2 (21st of 30).

After starting out as one of the top covering teams in the NBA, Sacramento has failed to cover the spread in five straight games and is 21-16-1 against the spread (ATS), 26-12 to the over/under, 10-6-1 ATS as a home underdog, 11-7-1 ATS as the home team, 9-8 to the over/under as a home underdog and 10-9 to the over/under as the home team for the season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State is now 25-14 after letting a big lead in a big game slip away, seeming almost powerless to stop James Harden in the second half and overtime of their 135-134 loss at Oracle.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.9 points per game, Kevin Durant grabbing 7.5 rebounds per game and dishing 6.1 assists per game.

NBA: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant had 26 points in the loss to the Rockets.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 116.3 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 111.9 points per game (21st of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.35 (7th of 30), pace factor of 100.3 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 114.7 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.3 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are 16-23 ATS, 20-19 to the over/under, 8-10 ATS as the away team, 6-8 ATS as an away favorite, 8-17 ATS in conference games, 10-4 to the over/under as an away favorite and 5-2 to the over/under in divisional games for the season.

Analysis

While in recent years we may have expected the Warriors to bounce back with a vengeance after a loss, this Warriors’ season and their defense are not what they used to be and they could be primed for a let down after such a disappointing loss in overtime at home.

At the same time, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Dubs came out strong and motor-boated the slumping Kings in an effort to get the taste of their last loss out of their mouths.

Sacramento has covered two straight against the Dubs and five out of their last seven contests. The Kings were leading the Warriors comfortably for most of their last game until the Warriors made a furious comeback to win by five.

Ten of the last twelve games for the Kings have gone over the total, and given the declining defense of the Warriors taken together with the likelihood they come out guns blazing, we lean toward the total going over 238.5 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Kings on 1/5/19?

This poll is closed

  • 40%
    Warriors -7.5
    (29 votes)
  • 26%
    Kings +7.5
    (19 votes)
  • 25%
    Over 238.5
    (18 votes)
  • 8%
    Under 238.5
    (6 votes)
72 votes total Vote Now

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