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Are 17.5-points too many for the Warriors to lay versus the Knicks?

Golden State are gigantic favorites as they host the Knicks who will be playing the second game of a back-to-back.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
Coach Steve Kerr’s coaching and the Warriors’ play have not been conducive to comfortable wins or covering the spread lately.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Given the Warriors poor track record of covering the spread this season, can bettors consider laying 17.5 points against the New York Knicks even if New York is playing on the second game of a back-to-back?

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday January 8th, 2019 at 7:30pm PST.

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBA TV, NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -17.5, total at 230

Injuries: Frank Ntilikina (ankle) is doubtful, Mitchell Robinson (ankle) is questionable and Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is out for the Knicks.

Shaun Livingston (knee) is out, DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) is out and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

New York Knicks

The Knicks are 10-30, coming off of a 111-101 loss at Portland on Monday, having lost six of their last seven.

New York is led by Tim Hardaway Jr. scoring 20.6 points per game, Enes Kanter with 10.7 rebounds per game and Emmanuel Mudiay with 4.0 assists per game.

NBA: New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers
Tim Hardaway Jr. leads the Knicks in points per game.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Prior to their loss against the Blazers on Monday, the Knicks were scoring 107.8 points per game (22nd of 30), allowing 115.8 points per game (27th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -7.57 (27th of 30), pace factor of 99.9 (12th of 30), offensive rating of 106.9 (23rd of 30) and defensive rating of 114.7 (29th of 30).

New York is 18-20-2 against the spread (ATS), 23-17 to the over/under, 11-17-1 ATS after a loss, 2-5 ATS on no rest, 14-8 to the over/under as an away underdog, 19-10 to the over/under after a loss and 4-3 to the over/under on no rest this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State needed another offensive explosion to move to 26-14 and finish the feisty Kings in Sacramento, coming from behind again in the fourth quarter to win 127-124 as 7.5 point favorites.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 29.4 points per game, Kevin Durant with 7.4 rebounds per game and 6.2 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
Steph Curry dropped 42 points and had some fun in their win at the Kings.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 116.5 points per game (3rd of 30), allowing 112.2 points per game (23rd of 30), earning a SRS score of 4.39 (6th of 30), pace factor of 100.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 115.1 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.7 (18th of 30).

The Dubs are dead last in the NBA in terms of covering the spread at 16-24 ATS, 21-19 to the over/under, 8-13 ATS as the home team, 3-6 ATS with 2-3 days off, 9-5 to the over/under in non-conference games, 15-10 to the over/under after a win and 20-15 to the over/under as a favorite this season.

Analysis

Even with New York being one of the worst teams in the NBA and playing in the second game of a back-to-back, 17.5 points just seems like too many to lay by the worst covering team in the NBA.

Golden State has beaten the Knicks in nine straight contests and we have little doubt that the Warriors win comfortably on Tuesday, but there is not a lot of value in laying that huge number in this situation.

The last three games these teams have played each other have gone over the posted total, and with the Warriors’ offense dropping threes and their defense becoming more porous, taken together with the Knicks’ defense likely to be affected by fatigue in playing consecutive nights, we see value in taking the total to go over 230 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Knicks on 1/8/19?

This poll is closed

  • 26%
    Warriors -17.5
    (69 votes)
  • 35%
    Knicks +17.5
    (94 votes)
  • 26%
    Over 230
    (69 votes)
  • 11%
    Under 230
    (31 votes)
263 votes total Vote Now

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