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Will the Warriors cover the number against the Utah Jazz for the first time since 2017?

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The Utah Jazz have covered the spread in five straight against Golden State, winning four of those contests outright.

NBA: Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green will face Rudy Gobert after making fun of Gobert’s reaction to an all-star snub.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State played down to their opponent for the second straight game and will now face a Utah Jazz team that has given the Warriors all they can handle recently.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 at 7:30pm PST

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: TNT

Line: Warriors -8.5, o/u 229

Injuries: Tony Bradley (knee) and Dante Exum (ankle) are out for the Jazz.

Andre Iguodala (hamstring) is questionable, Jacob Evans (pelvis) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Utah Jazz

Utah moved to 32-24 on the season with their 125-105 win versus the San Antonio Spurs and have won six of eight and twelve of their last fifteen games.

The Jazz are led by Donovan Mitchell scoring 22.4 points per game, Rudy Gobert with 12.8 rebounds per game and Ricky Rubio with 6.1 assists per game.

NBA: San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
Donovan Mitchell leads the Jazz in points per game and Rudy Gobert has the most rebounds per game.
Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Utah is scoring 109.2 points per game (20th of 30), allowing 105.8 points per game (3rd of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 4.05 (7th of 30), pace factor of 100.2 (12th of 30), offensive rating of 109.0 (12th of 30) and defensive rating of 105.6 (4th of 30).

The Jazz are 28-26-2 against the spread (ATS), 28-27-1 to the over/under, 7-6-1 ATS as an underdog, 13-14-1 ATS as the away team, 5-6-1 ATS as an away underdog, 6-8 to the over/under as an underdog and 5-7 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State needed last second free throws to barely beat the Miami Heat 120-118 as 14.5 point favorites, improving to 40-15 on the season.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.6 points per game and Draymond Green’s 7.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game, respectively.

NBA: Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry continues to lead the Warriors in points per game.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 119.1 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 111.5 points per game (17th of 30), earning a SRS score of 7.37 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.0 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 117.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.5 (14th of 30).

The Dubs are 24-30-1 ATS, 30-25 to the over/under, 11-15-1 ATS as a home favorite, 11-16-1 ATS as the home team, 22-27-1 ATS as a favorite, 11-15-1 ATS when the spread was -10 to -7, 13-14 to the over/under as a home favorite and 13-15 to the over/under as the home team this season.

Analysis

After the burst of dominating play that was bolstered by DeMarcus Cousin’s insertion into the lineup and part of an eleven game winning streak, the Warriors seem to be easing back into their post-All Star break, pre-playoffs form that has been typical of their last two years, making it difficult and usually not profitable to lay large spreads with the Dubs.

Golden State has failed to cover in four of their last five games and have failed to cover the last five contests against the Jazz, losing four of their last five against Utah outright.

The Jazz have been playing well and we wouldn’t recommend betting against them in this spot, perhaps even more so after Rudy Gobert was teased by Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala for shedding tears over an All-Star snub and especially if Andre doesn’t play.

Golden State’s scoring is down in February, averaging their lowest of any month so far this season with 107.0 points per game, and they have averaged 107.2 points per game on Tuesdays this season.

Given the Warriors dip in offensive production, taken together with Utah’s tough defense and likelihood of a physical, scrappy game from a fired up Rudy Gobert, we lean toward under 229.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Jazz on 2/12/19?

This poll is closed

  • 25%
    Warriors -8.5
    (46 votes)
  • 42%
    Jazz +8.5
    (78 votes)
  • 15%
    Over 229
    (28 votes)
  • 17%
    Under 229
    (32 votes)
184 votes total Vote Now