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Can the Warriors win and cover 3-points at Portland on no rest?

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The Warriors are three-point favorites at Portland on the second game of a back-to-back before heading into the All-Star break.

NBA: Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant led the Warriors in scoring in their win against the Jazz.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State played another tight game with a final score that belied how close it was for the duration of the contest, and will have no time to recharge as they travel to Portland to take on the Blazers on Wednesday night.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Wednesday February 13, 2019 at 7:30pm

Where: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon

TV: ESPN

Line: Warriors -3, o/u 234.5

Injuries: Shaun Livingston (rest), DeMarcus Cousins (rest), Jacob Evans (pelvis) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Portland Trailblazers

Portland fell to 33-23 on the season after a 120-111 loss at the Oklahoma City Thunder and have now lost three of their last four.

The Blazers are led by Damian Lillard with 26.3 points and 6.3 assists per game and Jusuf Nurkic with 10.2 rebounds per game.

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Damian Lillard leads the Blazers in points and assists per game.
Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Portland is scoring 113.0 points per game (11th of 30), allowing 110.4 points per game (13th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 3.27 (9th of 30), pace factor of 99.5 (17th of 30), offensive rating of 112.7 (10th of 30) and defensive rating of 110.1 (16th of 30).

The Blazers are 30-26 against the spread (ATS), 27-28-1 to the over/under, 20-11 ATS as the home team, 4-1 ATS as a home underdog, 20-15 ATS with one day off, 14-9 ATS against teams that win greater than 55 percent of games, 10-12 to the over/under after a loss, 2-3 to the over/under as a home underdog and 9-14 to the over/under as an underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State once again used a fourth quarter surge to pull out the 115-108 win to move to 41-15 on the season, failing to cover for the fourth time during this five game winning streak.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.5 points per game and Draymond Green’s 7.6 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game.

NBA: Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson dislocated his finger against the Jazz but is expected to play in Portland tonight.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 119.0 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 111.4 points per game (17th of 30), earning a SRS score of 7.41 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.0 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 117.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.5 (14th of 30).

The Warriors are 24-31-1 ATS, 30-26 to the over/under, 2-4-1 ATS on no rest, 12-22-1 ATS in conference games, 2-4 ATS when spread was -6 to -3, 11-14 ATS against teams that win greater than 55 percent of games, 23-28-1 ATS against teams allowing greater than 102 points per game, 16-7 to the over/under as an away favorite, 24-16 to the over/under after a win, 4-3 to the over/under on no rest and 17-10 to the over/under against teams allowing greater than 102 points per game.

Analysis

Though Golden State has won five straight, four of those games were much closer than the final score and resulted in the Warriors failing to cover and this trend makes it difficult to lay points with the Dubs in the last game before the All-Star break and on the second game of a back-to-back.

Portland has covered four of the last six against Golden State and won outright twice in the last three contests between these teams at the Moda Center.

The Warriors are averaging 107.2 points per game in February and only 104.0 points per game against Portland this season and will be playing on no rest with nothing but the All-Star break pending, making it difficult to foresee an offensive explosion tonight and more realistic to anticipate the Dubs putting it in cruise control.

Given the Dubs dip in offensive production in February and against the Blazers and the absence of Shaun Livingston and DeMarcus Cousins tonight, Klay Thompson’s shooting possibly affected by yesterday’s finger dislocation, taken together with Portland averaging 5.3 less points per game at home compared to on the road this season and both teams likely ready for the All-Star break, we lean toward under 234.5 points in this contest.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Blazers on 2/13/19?

This poll is closed

  • 50%
    Warriors -3
    (66 votes)
  • 26%
    Blazers +3
    (35 votes)
  • 11%
    Over 234.5
    (15 votes)
  • 12%
    Under 234.5
    (16 votes)
132 votes total Vote Now