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Will the Warriors cover ATS versus the Kings for the first time this season?

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The Dubs are 11.5-point favorites over Sacramento in their first game after the All-Star break.

NBA: All Star Game
Steph Curry and Kevin Durant will go back to being teammates after playing against each other in the All-Star game.
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State comes out of the All-Star break with their sights set on a fifth straight Finals appearance and third straight championship. How might that vision and associated load management strategy affect their approach to their remaining regular season games?

We will gain some insights into the Warriors’ post-All-Star break play as they host the Sacramento Kings on Thursday night. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday February 21st, 2019 at 7:30pm

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -11.5, o/u 239

Injuries: Jacob Evans (pelvis) is questionable and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings come out of the break with a 30-27 record, one game behind the Los Angeles Clippers for the eight seed in the Western Conference, narrowly losing their last game at the Denver Nuggets, 120-118.

Sacramento is led by Buddy Hield scoring 20.5 points per game, Willie Cauley-Stein with 8.5 rebounds per game and De’Aaron Fox with 7.2 assists per game.

NBA: Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets
De’Aron Fox has recently caused a stir with his opinions about In-N-Out Burger and leads the Kings in assists.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Kings are scoring 113.4 points per game (9th of 30), allowing 114.6 points per game (26th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -0.79 (17th of 30), pace factor of 103.3 (4th of 30), offensive rating of 109.6 (18th of 30) and defensive rating of 110.7 (18th of 30).

Sacramento is top three in the league against the spread (ATS) at 34-22-1, 30-27 to the over/under, 8-13 ATS as an away underdog, 13-14 ATS as an away team, 33-18-1 ATS against teams allowing >102 points per game, 32-14-1 ATS after a day off, 14-7 to the over/under as an away underdog, 17-10 to the over/under as the away team, 25-17 to the over/under as an underdog this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are 41-16 after the break and the number one seed in the West, tasked with managing their middle leg of the season before the playoffs, most recently dropping a tiring game in Portland by the score of 129-107.

Golden State is led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.6 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.6 rebounds and 7.3 assists per contest.

NBA: All Star Game
Steph Curry continues to play with a perpetual fountain of joy and leads the Warriors in points per game.
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 118.8 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 111.7 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.98 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 100.9 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.9 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.0 (15th of 30).

The Dubs are 24-32-1 ATS, 31-26 to the over/under, 11-17 ATS as the home team, 22-29-1 ATS as a favorite, 5-10-1 ATS against teams that win 45-55 percent of games, 23-29-1 against teams allowing >102 points per game, 9-6 to the over/under after 2-3 days off, 30-22 to the over/under as a favorite, 29-25 to the over/under against teams averaging >102 points per game and 30-23 to the over/under against teams allowing >102 points per game this season.

Analysis

They say the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, and this young, fun-to-watch and feisty Sacramento Kings squad has covered the number in each and every game against the Warriors so far this season, with each game going over the total.

In the first game after the All-Star break last season, a home game against the Clippers, Golden State put up 134 points in a 134-127 victory and have averaged 121.1 points on Thursdays so far this season, the highest of any day of the week.

With both teams rested and based on recent trends, we are not going to overthink this one and lean toward the game going over 239 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Kings on 2/21/19?

This poll is closed

  • 29%
    Warriors -11.5
    (33 votes)
  • 34%
    Kings +11.5
    (38 votes)
  • 26%
    Over 239
    (29 votes)
  • 9%
    Under 239
    (11 votes)
111 votes total Vote Now