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Will the Warriors exact revenge on the Rockets as 8.5-point favorites?

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Golden State will attempt to beat Houston for the first time this season.

NBA: Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant’s solid efforts helped will the Warriors to a win in their last game.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State pulled out another close win while failing to cover and will now once again host the Houston Rockets, hoping for a better outcome than their 135-134 overtime loss on James Harden’s last second three-pointer in January at Oracle.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Saturday, February 23rd, 2019 at 5:30pm

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors -8.5, o/u at 235

Injuries: James Harden (neck) is questionable and Iman Shumpert (knee) is out for the Rockets.

Shaun Livingston (personal) is questionable, Jacob Evans (pelvis) is questionable and Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are 33-25 after losing 111-106 at the Los Angeles Lakers in their first game after the break, and have lost three of their last four.

Houston is led by James Harden with 36.5 points and 7.7 assists per game, Clint Capela with 12.5 rebounds per game.

NBA: Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
James Harden leads the Rockets in points and assists per game.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Rockets are scoring 113.0 points per game (11th of 30), allowing 111.1 points per game (14th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 2.46 (11th of 30), pace factor of 97.8 (27th of 30), offensive rating of 114.5 (2nd of 30) and defensive rating of 112.6 (25th of 30).

Houston is 26-31-1 against the spread (ATS), 29-25-4 to the over/under, 4-6 ATS as an away underdog, 10-19 ATS as the away team, 2-0 ATS when spread was +7 to +10, 13-9 ATS against teams that win >55 percent of games and 12-15-2 to the over/under as an away team this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Dubs moved to 42-16 by narrowly edging the feisty Sacramento Kings, 125-123, in their first game after the break.

Golden State is led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.8 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.5 rebounds and 7.3 assists per contest.

NBA: Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry scored 36 points, including 10 three pointers and a ferocious dunk, in the Warriors’ win over the Kings.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Warriors are scoring 118.9 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 111.9 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.88 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.0 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.9 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.0 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are 24-33-1 ATS, 32-26 to the over/under, 11-18 ATS as the home team, 22-30-1 ATS as a favorite, 11-15 ATS against teams that win >55 percent of games, 23-30-1 against teams allowing >102 points per game, 5-12-1 ATS when spread was -10 to -7, 31-22 to the over/under as a favorite, 30-25 to the over/under against teams averaging >102 points per game and 14-16 to the over/under at home against teams allowing >102 points per game this season.

Analysis

Even though we fully expect the Warriors to come out with revenge on their mind and intentions of reminding the Rockets who rules the Western Conference, it’s hard to feel confident laying more than eight points to the Rockets who are 2-0 ATS this season against a Warriors team that has failed to cover in five straight and seven of their last eight games.

We do expect the Dubs to come out guns blazing and might consider them in the first half, but given how the Rockets have made strong second half showings in recent games at Oracle, would avoid a side for the full game.

Despite the huge total in the last game between these teams, the previous six contests went under the total, and given the likelihood of an intense, scrappy game on one days rest for both teams, we lean toward under 235 in this contest.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Rockets on 2/23/19?

This poll is closed

  • 44%
    Warriors -8.5
    (38 votes)
  • 23%
    Rockets +8.5
    (20 votes)
  • 21%
    Over 235
    (18 votes)
  • 10%
    Under 235
    (9 votes)
85 votes total Vote Now