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How will the Warriors respond to that loss on no rest, favored by only 6 in Orlando?

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Golden State will stay in the Sunshine State for the second game of a back-to-back, facing the Magic on Thursday.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat
Kevin Durant’s body language seemed to speak volumes in their loss to the Miami Heat.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors seemed to have been collectively afflicted by the South Beach flu, sluggish out of the gate and unable to capitalize on a late comeback against the Miami Heat who celebrated their one-point win as if it was a playoff game.

Hydration will be in order as the Dubs will play on consecutive nights in Florida, taking on the Orlando Magic on Thursday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Thursday, February 28th, 2019 at 4:00pm PST.

Where: Amway Center, Orlando, Florida

TV: NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -6, o/u at 226

Injuries: Isaiah Briscoe (concussion) is doubtful, Mo Bamba (leg) is out, Markelle Fultz (shoulder) is out and Timofey Mozgov (knee) is out for the Magic.

Damian Jones (pectoral) is out for the Warriors.

Orlando Magic

Orlando is 28-34 on the season after their 108-103 meltdown at the New York Knicks, where they were outscored 30-13 in the fourth quarter.

The Magic are led by Nikola Vucevic with 20.6 points and 12.0 rebounds per game, D.J. Augustin with 5.0 assists per game.

NBA: Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
Nikola Vucevic leads the Magic in points and assists per game.
Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Orlando is scoring 105.9 points per game (25th of 30), allowing 106.8 points per game (5th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -0.96 (25th of 30), pace factor of 98.2 (26th of 30), offensive rating of 107.3 (23rd of 30) and defensive rating of 108.2 (9th of 30).

The Magic are 32-28-2 against the spread (ATS), 28-34 to the over/under, 23-13 ATS after a day off, 9-7-1 ATS as a home underdog, 13-6 ATS when spread was +4.5 to +7.5, 23-18-1 ATS as an underdog, 11-22 to the over/under after a loss and 12-24-1 to the over/under with one day off this season.

Golden State Warriors

The Dubs fell to 43-18 with their too-little-too-late, 126-125 loss at the Miami Heat on Wednesday evening and will have no time to rest or wallow before facing the Magic on Thursday.

Not counting the Heat game, Golden State has been led by Stephen Curry with 28.4 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.5 rebounds per game and 7.3 assists per game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat
Steph Curry leads the Warriors in points per game.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Without the stats from their game in Miami, the Warriors have been scoring 118.8 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 112.0 points per game (18th of 30), earning a SRS score of 6.77 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.1 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.8 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.0 (15th of 30).

Golden State is 25-35-1 ATS, 33-28 to the over/under, 14-16 ATS as the away team, 6-11 ATS after a loss, 2-5-1 ATS on no rest, 4-8-1 ATS when spread was -7.5 to -4.5, 6-11-1 ATS against teams that win 45-55 percent of games, 8-4 to the over/under when line was 224.5 to 227.5, 5-3 to the over/under on no rest, 18-8 to the over/under as an away favorite, 19-11 to the over/under as an away team and 7-10 to the over/under after a loss this season.

Analysis

At first glance, it might seem that the Warriors will bounce back strong after that loss while getting DeMarcus Cousins back, having beaten the Magic in eleven straight and with the road team covering eight out of the last nine contests between these teams.

But this Dubs team has evolved to play different levels of intensity for various phases of the season, and their intensity for the phase between the All-Star break and the playoffs has attenuated with each championship season, and their ATS records after a loss and on no rest do not inspire a ton of confidence in this spot.

Contrary to what one might expect, Golden State has gone over the total more times than not in their second games of a back-to-back this season. The last two games between these teams have gone over the total and Orlando has gone over the total in their last three home games.

Expecting the Magic to elevate their game with the champs in town and after their meltdown in New York, and any frustrations the Warriors may have about their slow start and loss to Miami being channeled into more scoring, we lean toward over 226 in this game.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Magic on 2/28/19?

This poll is closed

  • 58%
    Warriors -6
    (115 votes)
  • 15%
    Magic +6
    (31 votes)
  • 21%
    Over 226
    (42 votes)
  • 3%
    Under 226
    (7 votes)
195 votes total Vote Now