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Do Warriors have enough motivation to cover 14.5 points against the Miami Heat?

The Warriors are huge, double-digit favorites for the fourth straight game.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
Draymond Green was ejected from the game against the Suns.
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors decided to play hard in the last few minutes at the Phoenix Suns, eking out a win against the worst team in the Western Conference playing without Devin Booker in a game that was neck and neck for three and a half quarters.

Now the Dubs return home as big favorites, hosting a Miami Heat team that has been wildly inconsistent this season.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday, February 10th, 2019 at 5:30pm PST

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, California

TV: NBA TV, NBC Sports Bay Area

Line: Warriors -14.5, o/u 222

Injuries: Dwyane Wade (leg) is questionable, Derrick Jones Jr. (knee) and Goran Dragic (knee) are out for the heat.

Andre Iguodala (hamstring) is questionable, Jacob Evans (pelvis) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Miami Heat

Miami fell to 25-28 on the season following their 102-96 loss at the Sacramento Kings on Friday night.

The Heat are led by Josh Richardson scoring 17.4 points per game, Hassan Whiteside with 12.5 rebounds per game and Dwyane Wade with 4.3 assists per game.

NBA: Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers
Josh Richardson leads the Heat in points per game.
Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

Miami is scoring 105.0 points per game (26th of 30), allowing 105.5 points per game (3rd of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of -1.45 (21st of 30), pace factor of 98.3 (25th of 30), offensive rating of 106.7 (23rd of 30) and defensive rating of 107.2 (6th of 30).

The Heat are 27-26 against the spread (ATS), 26-27 to the over/under, 16-9 ATS as an underdog, 10-6 ATS as an away underdog, 16-10 ATS as the away team, 12-14 to the over/under as the away team, 11-14 to the over/under as an underdog, 7-9 to the over/under as an away underdog and 8-12 to the over/under in non-conference games this season.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State seems fortunate to have pulled out the 117-107 win in Phoenix to move to 39-15 on the season, failing to cover the 15.5-points spread in a game that was a lot closer than the final score.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 28.7 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.7 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game, respectively.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
Steph Curry’s fourth quarter burst helped dispatch the Suns in Phoenix.
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 119.1 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 111.3 points per game (18th of 30), earning a SRS score of 7.51 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.0 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 117.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 109.4 (14th of 30).

The Dubs are 24-29-1 ATS, 29-25 to the over/under, 11-14-1 ATS as a home favorite, 11-15-1 ATS as the home team, 22-26-1 ATS as a favorite, 12-14 to the over/under as a home favorite and 12-15 to the over/under as the home team this season.


We are approaching the part of the season, between the trade deadline and playoffs, where it becomes more difficult to predict Golden State’s motivation to go all out against middle-of-the-road or bad teams as they also think more about managing their loads for the post-season.

While we have little doubt that the Dubs would prefer to be the top seed, we’ve also seen the champs ease up during the second half of their schedule the past two years, and their relaxation may be reflected in their failing to cover three of their last four games as 14+ point favorites in each.

The Heat have been inconsistent and at times unpredictable this season, sometimes beating good teams as underdogs and sometimes losing to bad teams as favorites. Due to the huge spread and questions about the Dubs’ motivation, we are staying away from a side in this game.

Given the Heat’s decent defense and slower pace, both teams playing on one day of rest, taken together with the Warriors’ offense cooling off a bit recently and the fact that the last four contests between Miami and Golden State have gone under the total, we lean toward under 222 points in this game.


What is your best bet for Warriors vs. Heat on 2/10/19?

This poll is closed

  • 33%
    Warriors -14.5
    (60 votes)
  • 24%
    Heat +14.5
    (44 votes)
  • 19%
    Over 222
    (34 votes)
  • 22%
    Under 222
    (39 votes)
177 votes total Vote Now

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