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Will underdog Warriors avoid a Rockets sweep, make it 6 straight under the total?

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The Warriors are 4-point underdogs as they try for the fourth and final time to beat the Houston Rockets for the first time this regular season.

NBA: Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry and the Warriors will try to avoid a regular-season sweep by the surging Rockets.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors suffered what may be their most humiliating loss of the season to the cellar-dwelling Phoenix Suns as seventeen point favorites, and may have lost Kevin Durant and entered their regular-season doldrums at the most inopportune time if they want to avoid the regular-season sweep by the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Wednesday March 13, 2019 at 6:30pm PST

Where: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

TV: ESPN

Line: Warriors +4, o/u at 228

Injuries: Isaiah Hartenstein (Achilles) and Terrence Jones (illness) are both questionable for the Rockets.

Andrew Bogut (personal) is questionable and Kevin Durant (ankle) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Houston Rockets

Houston improved to 42-25 with their 118-106 win at home against the Charlotte Hornets and have now won nine straight, with the current win streak possibly catalyzed by their James Harden-less win at Oracle on February 23rd.

The Rockets are led by James Harden with 36.2 points and 7.5 assists per game and Clint Capela with 12.5 rebounds per game.

NBA: Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
Clint Capela had fifteen rebounds in the Rockets’ most recent win against the Warriors and continues to lead Houston in rebounds per game.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Houston is scoring 113.0 points per game (12th of 30), allowing 110.2 points per game (12th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 3.25 (10th of 30), pace factor of 97.7 (28th of 30), offensive rating of 114.8 (2nd of 30) and defensive rating of 111.9 (22nd of 30).

The Rockets are 31-34-2 against the spread (ATS), 32-31-4 to the over/under, 18-14-1 ATS as the home team, 19-19-1 ATS on one day off, 19-12-2 to the over/under as the home team and 18-19-3 to the over/under with one day off this season.

Houston is 5-5 ATS, 3-7 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 97.8 points per game in March but 118.8 points per game on Wednesdays for the season, their highest of any day of the week.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State fell to 45-21 in their embarrassing 111-115 loss to the Phoenix Suns, and have now lost four of their last six games and have not won consecutive games since February 12th.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.9 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.5 rebounds and 7.1 assists per contest.

NBA: Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green officially leads the Warriors in rebounds and assists per game, unofficially leads the team in getting on Steve Kerr’s nerves.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State is scoring 118.2 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 112.3 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.83 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.2 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.2 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are tied for last in the NBA in terms of percentage of games covering the number, 26-39-1 ATS, 33-33 to the over/under, 14-18 ATS as the away team, 7-13 ATS after a loss, 13-26-1 ATS in conference games, 19-13 to the over/under as the away team, 1-3 to the over/under as an away underdog, 1-4 to the over/under as an underdog and 7-13 to the over/under after a loss this season.

The Warriors are 2-7 ATS, 3-7 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 120.0 points against Houston, 115.2 points per game on two days rest and 118.9 points on Wednesday games this season, their highest of any day of the week.

Analysis

Houston has straight-up won and covered ATS in three straight against the Warriors and seven of the last eight contests between these teams have gone under the total, and the Warriors have gone under the total in five straight games.

While we expect the Warriors to be rested with extra motivation after their home-loss to the worst team in the Western Conference and being 0-3 against Houston this season, the absence of Kevin Durant might make it hard to feel confident picking the Dubs to win in this spot at first glance.

But we’ve seen the Dubs and Steph Curry step up big time in the absence of KD during March in the past, and while we expect Steph to have a big game and would not be surprised if the Dubs pull off the upset tonight, we still caution against taking the Warriors ATS during this part of the season.

Even though KD’s absence and all trends point to the under in this spot, given the Warriors having two days rest and their average scoring on the road, on Wednesdays and against Houston, taken together with Houston’s tendency to score a lot on Wednesday games and both teams being highly motivated in this match-up, we are going to lean toward over 228 total points in this contest.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Rockets on 3/13/19?

This poll is closed

  • 35%
    Warriors +4
    (66 votes)
  • 38%
    Rockets -4
    (71 votes)
  • 14%
    Over 228
    (27 votes)
  • 10%
    Under 228
    (20 votes)
184 votes total Vote Now