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Will underdog Warriors’ defense silence the Thunder, make it 7 straight under the total?

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Golden State will try to make it two upsets in a row on the road against a Western Conference contender in Oklahoma City Saturday night.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Klay Thompson’s defense and scoring played a major part in the Warriors’ win over the Rockets on Wednesday.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors played with defense and enthusiasm like it was 2015 in their upset of the Rockets in Houston on Wednesday, and will be without Kevin Durant for another game when they face his old team in the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday.

Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Saturday March 16, 2019 at 5:30pm PST

Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

TV: ABC

Line: Warriors +2, o/u 231

Injuries: Andre Roberson (knee) is out for the Thunder.

Kevin Durant (ankle), Andrew Bogut (personal) and Damian Jones (pectoral) are out for the Warriors.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City dropped to 42-27 with their 106-108 loss at the Indiana Pacers on Thursday.

The Thunder are led by Paul George with 28.2 points per game and Russell Westbrook with 11.1 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game.

NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers
Russell Westbrook leads the Thunder in rebounds and assists.
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma City is scoring 114.9 points per game (4th of 30), allowing 110.9 points per game (14th of 30), earning a simple rating system (SRS) score of 3.85 (8th of 30), pace factor of 103.3 (3rd of 30), offensive rating of 110.2 (15th of 30) and defensive rating of 106.3 (4th of 30).

The Thunder are 36-33 against the spread (ATS), 31-36-2 to the over/under, 17-15 ATS as the home team, 21-24 ATS in conference games, 17-14-1 to the over/under as the home team and 19-24-2 to the over/under in conference games.

OKC is 3-7 ATS, 2-8 to the over/under in their last ten games and averaging 101.5 points per game against Golden State and 2.7 points less at home than the road this season.

Golden State Warriors

While Vegas had Golden State as four point underdogs without Kevin Durant in Houston, the Dubs channeled motivated defense and unselfish team play to pull off the 106-104 upset and improve to 46-21 on the season.

The Warriors are led by Stephen Curry scoring 27.9 points per game and Draymond Green with 7.4 assists and 7.0 rebounds per game.

Golden State is scoring 118.0 points per game (1st of 30), allowing 112.2 points per game (19th of 30), earning a SRS score of 5.84 (2nd of 30), pace factor of 101.1 (10th of 30), offensive rating of 116.0 (1st of 30) and defensive rating of 110.3 (16th of 30).

The Dubs are 27-39-1 ATS, 33-34 to the over/under, 15-18 ATS as the away team, 14-26-1 ATS in conference games, 3-2 ATS as an away underdog, 19-14 to the over/under as the away team, 8-9 ATS with 2-3 days off, 19-22 to the over/under in conference games, 9-8 to the over/under with 2-3 days off and 1-4 to the over/under as an away underdog this season.

Golden State is 3-7 ATS, 2-8 to the over/under in their last ten games, averaging 111.5 points per game against the Thunder and 114.5 points per game on two days rest this season.

Analysis

We are not going to say that the Warriors are a better team without Kevin Durant, but as basketball is a game that can be dependent on chemistry and rhythm, the Dubs chemistry and rhythm just looked better in their win at Houston compared to the past several games.

Led by Klay Thompson’s suffocating coverage, the Warriors forced the Rockets into a lot of bad shots which helped seal the victory. They say defense wins championships, and Golden State played with enthusiastic defense in their upset on Wednesday, reminiscent of their 2015 season when they finished first in defensive efficiency and surprised the league with their title run.

While Kevin Durant is one of the best players in the league and a critical part of the Warriors’ previous titles and current quest for another, the Warriors have been able to harness successful chemistry for stretches without him and they did it on Wednesday night.

In KD’s first season with the Warriors, he went down with a knee injury against Washington at the end of February 2017, which was followed by a stretch of losing five of seven. But starting on March 14th of that year, Steph, Klay and Dray regained their joyful chemistry and rattled off a thirteen game win streak without KD that was characterized by stifling defense.

The final score has finished under the posted total in seven straight and eleven of twelve contests between the Warriors and Thunder, and both teams have trended under in their last ten games, with the Warriors going under in six straight and Thunder going under in four straight. We anticipate another game of solid chemistry and motivated defense by the Warriors on Saturday night, likely leading to a win for the Dubs and the total going under 231 points.

Poll

What is your best bet for Warriors at Thunder on 3/16/19?

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    Warriors +2
    (55 votes)
  • 7%
    Thunder -2
    (8 votes)
  • 7%
    Over 231
    (8 votes)
  • 29%
    Under 231
    (30 votes)
101 votes total Vote Now